CESifo Working Paper Series

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13009: Hedging Trade-Cost Uncertainty

Hartmut Egger, Peter Egger, Katharina Erhardt and Leandro Navarro

13008: Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Global Cycles

Michael B. Devereux, Charles Engel and Steve Pak Yeung Wu

13007: Quantifying Non-Tariff Barriers: Brexit, Input Sourcing and Firm Performance

Gustaf Dillner, Rebecca Freeman, Kalina B. Manova and Thomas Sampson

13006: Will AI Help or Hurt Work and the Economy? What People Around the World Expect

Claudia Bruschi, Francesco D'Acunto, Fiorella De Fiore, Damiano Sandri and Michael Weber

13005: Social Sorting and Political Cleavages: Evidence from 2.5 Million Electoral Candidates

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Carlos Sanz

13004: Birth, Life, and Death of AI Models

Aaron P. Kaye, Kazimier Smith and Neil Thompson

13003: Educating like China

Federica Coelli, Difei Ouyang, Weidi Yuan and Yuan Zi

13002: Local Trade Wars

Wei Li, Jie Ouyang, Bin Qiu, Zi Wang and Yuan Zi

13001: AI Events, Persistence, and Volatility in US Utility and AI-Exposed Stocks: The AI-Power Channel

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana and Alex Medina Sosa

13000: AI Intensity and Financial Market Responses to Economic Shocks: Evidence from US Industries

Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale

12999: The Stories We Tell: Societal Narratives and Support for the Far Right

Malte Baader, Kai Barron, Anna Hochleitner and Jonas P. Kaiser

12998: Shipping to America

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Ricardo Marto, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

12997: Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick

12996: Who Benefits from Copyright? The Evidence So Far and a Research Agenda

Christian Peukert

12995: Inheritance Customs and the European Marriage Pattern

Matthew Curtis, Paula E. Gobbi, Marc Goñi and Joanne Haddad

12994: The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates

Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu

12993: Assessing Hypothetical Scenarios for Estimating Labor Supply Responses: Evidence from a Pension Reform

Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Jonas Jessen, Pinchuan Ong and Jessica Pan

12992: Occupational License Portability and the Misallocation of Labor

Mark Colas

12991: Implications of Inflation Forecast Targeting for Fiscal Policy

Zeno Enders and Sophia Oberbrinkmann

12990: Inherited Repugnance: Slavery's Legacy on Market Acceptance in Benin

Marco Fabbri, Nicola Lacetera and Plinio Limata

12989: So Far Away? Hiring Discrimination Against Female Commuters

Sascha Becker, Ana Fernandes, Nurlan Lalayev and Doris Weichselbaumer

12988: Flexible Demand Estimation with Search Data

Tomomichi Amano, Markus Brobeil, Andrew Rhodes and Stephan Seiler

12987: Optimal Taxation with Migration and Regional Externalities

Eren Gürer

12986: Patents, Pay and People: How Innovation Reshapes the Workforce

Çiğdem Ekiz, Eren Gürer and Erol Taymaz

12985: Is It a Lie If I Don’t Know? Mechanisms and Mitigation of Dishonesty Under Ignorance

Sven A. Simon

12984: Voice AI in Firms: A Natural Field Experiment on Automated Job Interviews

Brian Jabarian and Luca Henkel

12983: (How) Do We Teach Emotions?

Anjali Adukia, Matthew Bonci, Paula Dastres Gallardo, Emileigh Harrison, Jake Nicoll and Teodora Szasz

12982: Comparative Statics of Information Acquisition and Risk Aversion

Antonio Cabrales, Gregorio Curello, Olivier Gossner and Roberto Serrano

12981: Recommendation Quality and the Concentration of Consumption: Experimental Evidence from Netflix

Guy Aridor, Winston Chou, Nathan Kallus, Antoine Scheid, Allen Tran and Kevin Zielnicki

12980: The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Loan Book

Xudong An, Jan Harren, Saket Hegde, Mete Kilic and Rodney Ramcharan

12979: The Long Term Effects of School Prayer

Benjamin W. Arold, Afonso Alves Monteiro and Constantine Yannelis

12978: Consistent Non-Utilitarian Welfare Weights

Katy Bergstrom and William Dodds

12977: Income, Wealth, and Redistribution in a Tax Haven: Distributional National Accounts for Switzerland

Enea Baselgia, Remo Gurtner, Julian Koller and Isabel Z. Martínez

12976: Risk Perceptions as a Multivariate System: Crowding Out, Affect Generalization, and Heterogeneous Belief Updating

Armin A. Bolouri, Tim Lohse and Salmai Qari

12975: Regulatory Delay, Uncertainty, and the Cost of Foreign Investment Screening

Phillip McCalman and Andrew Walter

12974: The Dynamics of Household Financial Fragility: Natural Disasters and Asymmetric Regime Transitions

Peter Grajzl and Benedikt Wick

12973: Natural Resources, Democracy, and Labour-Market Outcomes in the Public Sector

Tania Masi and Roberto Ricciuti

12972: Zero-Shot Conditional Forecasting and the Information Content of Central Bank Paths

Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

12971: Minimum Wages and Race Disparities

David Neumark and Jyotsana Kala

12970: The Costs and Benefits of Mediocrity: Endogenous Auction Design in Procurement

Frank Stähler and Andrea Tulli

12969: Childcare for Informal-Sector Workers: Delivery Models, Access, and Welfare

Jacklyn Makaaru Arinaitwe, George Bogere, Anna Fiore, Sylvan Herskowitz, Megan Lang, Francis Mwesigye and Tracy Nalumansi

12968: Male Dominance and Cultural Extinction

Eleonora Guarnieri and Ana Tur-Prats

12967: Political Rupture and the Origins of Secularization: Evidence from the French Revolution

Rabah Arezki and Dao Van Le

12966: Moving the Quality Needle? Provider Choice, Waiting Times, and Clinical Outcomes

Joan Costa-i-Font and Juan David Garcia Corchero

12965: Beyond Optimization and Blind Selection: Reflexive Agency in Economic Evolution

Dennis J. Snower

12964: Systemic Runs and the Dimension of Financial Fragility

Gerrit Meyerheim

12963: Control without Ownership: Public Insurance, Firm Boundaries, and Buyer Authority in Fixed-Factor Supply Chains

Gerrit Meyerheim

12962: Post-Defense Returns: Dynamic Strategic States and the Value of Low-Return Actions

Gerrit Meyerheim

12961: Beyond the Facts: Familiarity, Credibility, and Persuasion

Evangelos Dioikitopoulos, Rigissa Megalokonomou, Tommaso Sartori and Yves Zenou

12960: The Role of AI in Online Reviews

Valeria Lermana, Oren Rigbi and Yaniv Dover

12959: Rust in Motion: The Political Environmental Trap of Vehicle Tax Exemptions

Gabriel Facundes Monteiro and Edson R. Severnini

12958: Neonatal Health and Long-Term Outcomes: Twin-Based Evidence From Linked Scandinavian Registers

Evelina Björkegren, Aline Bütikofer, Gabriella Conti, Marten Palme and Kjell G Salvanes

12957: The Intangible Economy

Radek Šauer

12956: Call It Femicide: Legal Recognition, Victim Protection, and Domestic Violence

Rui Costa, Olivia Masi, Beatriz Ribeiro and Matteo Sandi

12955: The STEM Next Door: Early Exposure to Science-Trained Neighbors and Long-Run Outcomes

Petter Lundborg and Adrian Nieto

12954: Economic Preferences Predict Higher-Education Choices

Thomas F. Epper, Ernst Fehr, Kristoffer B. Hvidberg, Claus T. Kreiner, Søren Leth-Petersen and Basit Zafar

12953: Carbon Taxation and Firm Behavior in Emerging Economies: Evidence from South Africa

Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel and Edson R. Severnini

12952: A Model of Global Firms and Capital Markets

Loukas Karabarbounis, Bruno Pellegrino and Juliana Salomao

12951: Pensions and Turbulence: Automatic Adjustment, Risk, and Fairness in Long-Term Pension Design

Peter Diamond

12950: Modeling Supply-Chain and Transport Resilience to Climate Risks: Lessons from Four Regions

Celian Colon and Stephane Hallegatte

12949: Trade Fragmentation, International Cartels, and Welfare: How Does Domestic Market Structure Matter?

Delina E. Agnosteva, Constantinos Syropoulos and Yoto Yotov

12948: Perceived Protection: Tariff Spillovers to Product Substitutes in the Used Car Market

Sebastien Bradley, Mian Dai, Blaize Giangiulio and Yoto Yotov

12947: Perverse Trade Sanction Effects

Gabriel Felbermayr, Ohyun Kwon, Constantinos Syropoulos and Yoto Yotov

12946: Chained Indices Unchained: Structural Transformation and the Welfare Foundations of Income Growth Measurement

Omar Licandro and Juan Ignacio Vizcaino

12945: News Consumption in the Digital Age

Francesco Capozza, Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth and Johannes Wohlfart

12944: Agriculture, Land Use and Optimal Second-Best Environmental and Climate Policy with Greenhouse Gas Leakage

Peter K. Kruse-Andersen, Peter Birch Sørensen, Anders Pretzmann Gotfredsen, Francesco Clora and Wusheng Yu

12943: Returns to Caring? Health and Wellbeing Effects of Subsidized Long-Term Care

Joan Costa-i-Font, Sergi Jimenez-Martin and Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto

12942: The U.S.–China Trade War and the Geography of Global Production

Harald Fadinger, Lei Li, Sophia Praetorius and Jan Schymik

12941: Capable but Not Deployable: Institutional Constraints on AI Exposure in Finance

Claes Backman and Christos A. Makridis

12940: Social Institutions, Parental Investments and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Age-sets in Uganda

Matthew Collins, Patrick Wing McHale and Devon Spika

12939: Building Resilience Through Psychological Intervention

Michelle Escobar Carías, Victoria Baranov, Sonia Bhalotra, Pietro Biroli and Joanna Maselko

12938: A Quantitative Analysis of Optimal Income Redistribution in Anglo-Saxon and Continental Economies

Burkhard Heer and Mark Trede

12937: The Value of (Sub) Specialization: Evidence from Oncology

René Karadakic, David C. Chan, Nancy L. Keating, Bruce E. Landon and Michael L. Barnett

12936: Air Pollution and Learning

A. Patrick Behrer, Joshua S. Goodman, J. Parker Goyer and R. Jisung Park

12935: Kumon Up: Private Tutoring Centers and Student Achievement

Joshua S. Goodman and Samuel Nitkin

12934: Incomplete Insurance and Open-Economy Spillovers of Labor Market Reforms

Brigitte Hochmuth, Christian Merkl and Heiko Stüber

12933: The Multinational Wage Premium: Production vs. Financial Networks

Hartmut Egger and Elke Jahn

12932: Sorting Fact from Fiction When Reasoning Is Motivated

Melis Kartal, Edoardo Cefala, Sylvia Kritzinger and Jean-Robert Tyran

12931: Differing Environmental Preferences, Fiscal Competition, and Taxation of Goods and Pollution

Chiara Canta, Helmuth Cremer and Firouz Gahvari

12930: Strategic Asset Importance and the Adoption of Data-Driven Management Practices

Timothy DeStefano, Richard Kneller and Jonathan Timmis

12929: Prior Sentiment and Returns Around Earnings Announcements

H. Christopher Kazemi and Christos A. Makridis

12928: Cultural Evolution

Oded Galor, Marc Klemp and Daniel Wainstock

12927: Train Stations and Car Registrations: Evidence from Station Openings in Germany

Joschka Flintz, Stefanie Gaebler, Viktoria Kleinschmidt and Felix Roesel

12926: Geopolitics and Export Miracles: Firm-Level Evidence from U.S. War Procurement in Korea

Philipp Barteska, Oliver Kim, Nathan Lane and Seung Joo Lee

12925: AI Persuasion and Financial-Decision Making: Experimental Evidence on Dominated Investment Choices

Joshua Greubel, Henrik Guhling and Fabian Herweg

12924: Comparisons

Thomas W. Graeber and Benjamin Enke

12923: Access to Standards, Access to Markets: ISO Access, Quality Infrastructure, and International Trade

Christian Lessmann and Zhixiao Yao

12922: The Limits of a Broad VAT Cut: Pass-Through Heterogeneity and Welfare Interpretation

Michael Barczay, Shafik Hebous and Tom Zimmermann

12921: Financial Inclusion and Electricity Uptake

Megan Lang and Alpha Ly

12920: Inflation Targeting and Zero Lower Bound Risk: Cross-Country Evidence

Antonio Afonso and Leonardo Zorzi

12919: Compulsory Schooling Mitigates Health Inequality: Anthropometric Evidence from Two Centuries of Height Data

Caroline Namubiru, Joerg Baten, Alberto Batinti and Joan Costa-i-Font

12918: Long-Run Inflation and Financial Panics

Nikolay Hristov and Dominik Menno

12917: The Law of Restitution for Void Contracts: An Economic Analysis

Dhammika Dharmapala and Nuno Garoupa

12916: Climate Policy for Coordination

Inge van den Bijgaart and Åsa Löfgren

12915: Economic Development in the Shadow of War

Marcel Schlepper and Timo Wochner

12914: Racial Bias in Team Selection: Experimental Evidence from a Fictional Soccer Lineup

Henrik Guhling and Fabian Herweg

12913: Blocking the Giants: Theory and Evidence from the Great Firewall

Ruiqi Sun

12912: Inattentive Price Setting and Inflation Under Fiscal Policy Uncertainty

Oliver Pfäuti and Edson Wu

12911: Standing Tall at Sixteen: The Labor Market Value of Relative Height in Adolescence

Tiziano Arduini, Daniela Iorio and Francesca Marazzi

12910: Parents in the Classroom: Strengthening Government Capacity to Deliver Early Childhood Education

Bet Caeyers, Lina Cardona Sosa, Sarah Cattan, Sonya Krutikova and Abu Siddique