CESifo Working Paper Series

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13109: Drawing the AI Boundary in Production Networks

Luisa Corrado and Christos A. Makridis

13108: Out of the Fields? Legalization and Farm Labor After IRCA

Andrea Bernini and Navid Sabet

13107: Getting In and Getting Through: Ex Ante Beliefs and Counterfactual Outcomes in Centralized College Admissions

Pamela Giustinelli and Edwin Leuven

13106: Cum-Fake: Improper Dividend Withholding Tax Reclaims Through Pre-Release ADRs

David Murphy, Maximilian Todtenhaupt and Floris T. Zoutman

13105: How is AI Affecting College Major and Course Choices? Evidence from Finland

Ciprian Domnisoru and Tuomas P. Heikkinen

13104: An Analytical Macroeconomic Model of Natural Capital: The Case of Uganda

Charl Jooste, Stan Kannegieter and Ted Loch-Temzelides

13103: From Fireside Intentions to Housing Market Frictions: Evidence from a Major Forest Fire

Patrick Bigler, Marie-Laure Breuillé, Camille Grivault, Sébastien Houde, Julie Le Gallo and Alexandra Verlhiac

13102: The Great Recession and the Geography of U.S. Fertility

Wookun Kim, Seonghoon Kim and Kanghyock Koh

13101: Myopia and the Term Structure of Survey Expectations

Fabio Milani

13100: Estimating, Bounding, and Decomposing the Effects of a Parent-Directed School Readiness Program

Flávio Cunha, Qinyou Hu, Andrea Salvati, Kenneth I. Wolpin and Rui Zeng

13099: Productivity in Teams: Double Crewing for Police

Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi and Robert Witt

13098: Integration and Competition in Generative AI: Evidence from Google’s AI Mode Rollout

Michelangelo Rossi, Adèle Diehl and Louis-Daniel Pape

13097: The Impact of Informal Caregiving on the Well-being of Older Adults in Europe

Moïse Drabo, Raquel Fonseca and Marie-Louise Leroux

13096: Income Gradients in Health-State Dependence

Philippe De Donder, Mathieu Lefebvre, Marie-Louise Leroux and Quitterie Roquebert

13095: Common Ownership and Intertemporal Price Discrimination

Patrick Arnold, Marc Moller and Makoto Watanabe

13094: AI at Work: Use, Complementary Technologies, and Task Reallocation

Vahagn Jerbashian and Montserrat Vilalta-Bufi

13093: Growing Pains: The Unequal Costs of Infrastructure Modernization

Meera Mahadevan, Ryan McCord, Robyn Meeks and Manisha Pradhananga

13092: When Parents Stay Home: Work-from-Home and Sorting Across Public, Private, and Home Schools

David Agrawal and Iuliia Shybalkina

13091: Preferences for the Poorest: New Data and Sectoral Evidence on Non-Reciprocal Trade

Mario Larch and Yoto Yotov

13090: Biased Beliefs, Job Search, and Welfare: A Structural Analysis of Coaching and Counseling

Patrick Arni, Bart Cockx and Andrey Launov

13089: Technology, Licensing and Multinational Production

Sophia Praetorius

13088: The Value of Ignorance: Behavioral Preferences for Genetic Information and Insurance Market Equilibria

David Bardey and Philippe De Donder

13087: Heterogeneous Firms, Growth and the Long Shadows of Business Cycles

Cristiana Benedetti-Fasil, Giammario Impullitti, Omar Licandro, Petr Sedlacek and Adam Hal Spencer

13086: AI and the Boundary of the Firm: Evidence from Radiology

Marco Francesconi and Xiaoyu Xia

13085: Firm Size Distribution and Power Laws in Brazil: Empirical Evidence

Marcelo Resende and Vicente Cardoso

13084: Heterogeneous Effects of Trade in Services Barriers: Firm-Level Evidence from the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

Cindy Justo, Antonio Navas and Enrico Vanino

13083: Prospects for the Greek Economy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Framework

George Alogoskoufis, Vasilki Dimakopoulou, George Economides and Apostolis Philippopoulos

13082: Learning from Stories, Statistics, and Narratives

Thomas W. Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann

13081: Fiscal Policy and Its Watchers: Do Fiscal Councils Help Close the Tax Gap?

Antonio Afonso, José Alves and Kakoum Eudes Somda

13080: The Two Sides of Sovereign Balance Sheets: How Much Do Government Financial Assets Tell Us About r − g?

José Alves and Clarisse Wagner

13079: The China Shock in World Markets: Chinese Competition and German Exporters

Philip Bodenschatz, Peter H. Egger and Arne Nagengast

13078: Gender Differences in the Genetics of Skill Formation

Mikkel Aagaard Houmark and Victor Ronda

13077: Optimal Taxation of Indistinguishable Activities

Jacob Goldin, Sebastian Koehne and Nicholas Lawson

13076: Beyond the Numbers: Professional Forecasters’ Narratives About Inflation and Stock Market Performance

Christian Conrad, Julius Schoelkopf, Michael Weber and Frank Brueckbauer

13075: The Role of Social Preferences for Life Goals and Career Choices

Julien Senn, Thomas F. Epper and Ernst Fehr

13074: Deck the Charts: Christmas, Streaming, and the Return of One Catalog

Klaus Wohlrabe and Gerome Wolf

13073: Environmental Risk Salience and Real Estate Markets

Marco Letta and Samuel Nocito

13072: The Role of Employment and Redistribution for Lifetime Income Inequality in Denmark

Jonas Maibom, Trine Schack and Rune Vejlin

13071: Foreign Ownership and Occupational Safety: Evidence from France

Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, Alessia Lo Turco, Daniela Maggioni and Gianluca Santoni

13070: Football Tournaments and Economic Sentiment: Cross-Country Evidence from Europe

Jonas Hennrich and Klaus Wohlrabe

13069: Transition Risk in Emerging Economies

Stefano Carattini, Giseong Kim, Givi Melkadze and Aude Pommeret

13068: Global Hydropower Exposure to Rainfall Variability: Historical Estimates and the 2026/27 El Niño

Stephane Hallegatte

13067: Political Incentives in Local Tax Setting: Evidence from the German Property Tax Reform

Ramona Müller and Matthias Wrede

13066: Climate Risk Spillovers and Sovereign Financing

Lukas Rischen and Achim Hagen

13065: Dynamic Identification of Sovereign Facilitators in International Corporate Tax Avoidance

Henk Kox and Arjan M. Lejour

13064: Committee Deliberation and Gender Differences in Influence

Jonas Radbruch and Amelie Schiprowski

13063: Labor Market Dynamics and Teacher Spatial Sorting

Tim Ederer

13062: Are We Consuming Too Much Groundwater?

Brian Greaney, Joseph S. Shapiro and Katherine R. H. Wagner

13061: Tax Productivity and Economic Development: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Analysis

Radhika Goyal, Anders Jensen, David Lagakos, Abdoulaye Ndiaye and Yuntian Zhao

13060: Alliances and Hierarchical Defense Commitments - Micro-Evidence from France, Germany, and Poland

Tim Lohse, Salmai Qari, Andreas Stotland, Tobias Börger and Jürgen Meyerhoff

13059: The Supply of Expertise: New Technologies, New Skills, and Worker Impacts

Anna Salomons, Cäcilia vom Baur and Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage

13058: Competitive Search for Bundles

Xiaoming Cai and Pieter A. Gautier

13057: Changing Course: Robots and Human Capital Investment in High School

Wookun Kim and Fernanda da Silva

13056: Behavioral Pricing Constrains Tariff Pass-Through

Samuel D. Hirshman and Anna Ignatenko

13055: Dividend Taxes and the Limits of the New View

Paolo Panteghini

13054: The Hidden Cost of Resource Nationalism

Rabah Arezki, Olof Löf, Federico Merchan and Frederick van der Ploeg

13053: Geopolitical Tensions, Social Identity and the Fragmentation of the Global Economy

Nicolas Dietl, Susanne Keller and Sebastian Krautheim

13052: The Paradox of Inequality

Oded Galor, Luca Pensieroso and Daniel C. Wainstock

13051: Like a Good Neighbor: Childhood Neighbors Influence Occupation Choice

Michael Andrews, Ryan Hill, Joseph Price and Riley Wilson

13050: Debiasing Law Enforcement Officers: Evidence from an Expressive Arts Intervention in India

Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nishith Prakash and Maria Micaela Sviatschi

13049: Randomized to Opportunity: Measuring Place Effects for Refugee Children

N. Meltem Daysal, Joseph J. Doyle, Naeim Samandaril, Emil Simonsen and Mircea Trandafir

13048: Forming the AMR Club: The Exclusivity-Mobility Tradeoff

Dilek Sevim, Stefan Felder, Yu Deng and Hans Gersbach

13047: Energy Supply Shocks and Inflation Expectations: A Functional Var Approach

Maximilian Boeck, Anja Bauer and Jonas Dovern

13046: Trade Intermediation and Resilience in Global Sourcing

Oscar Perelló

13045: Task Expansion with Generative AI: Experimental Evidence on Middle-Skilled, Early-Career Workers

Hanna Brosch, Christina Langer, Philipp Lergetporer, Sandra Mueller, Harald Pfeifer and Nele Tschoepe

13044: Who Can Produce What? Firm Capabilities and Product Entry

Luca Macedoni, John Morrow and Vladimir Tyazhelnikov

13043: Global Flood Risk in the 2026/27 El Niño: An Empirical Estimate from the Historical Relationship

Stephane Hallegatte

13042: Will Fixed Book Prices Fix It? Common Agency and Vertical Integration of Publishers and Bookstores

Kurt R. Brekke, Odd Rune Straume and Lars Sørgard

13041: Return-to-Work Policies for Disability Insurance Recipients: The Role of Financial Incentives

Guida Ayza Estopà, Bart Cockx, Sébastien Fontenay and Ilan Tojerow

13040: Access to Jobs and Individual Labor Market Outcomes

Andreas Mense, Wolfgang Dauth and Matthias Wrede

13039: Financial Inclusion: A Meta-analytic Evidence from Global Research

Samuel Fiifi Eshun and Evžen Kočenda

13038: Justifying Sustainability While Taming Longtermism: A Pluralistic Approach to Intergenerational Justice

Geir Asheim and Wolfgang Buchholz

13037: Oil Prices and Global Activity in a General Equilibrium Model with Dynamic Elasticities

Romain Houssa and Jolan Mohimont

13036: Repression, Exit, and Dissent in an Autocracy

Max Deter, Kalle Kappner and Hans Lueders

13035: Double Selection in Causal Inference

Christian Alemán Pericón, Christopher Busch, Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis and Tetyana Surovtseva

13034: Opportunity-Sensitive Social Welfare

Tim Wienand, Brice Magdalou, Richard Nock and Paul Hufe

13033: Platform Liability, Product Safety and Optimal Pricing

Herbert Dawid, Ali Kashefi and Gerd Muehlheusser

13032: Disruption in the Classroom: Experimental Evidence from Ecuador

Pedro Carneiro, Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo, Francesca Salvati and Norbert Schady

13031: Sorting in a Market for Lemons

Xiaoming Cai and Pieter Gautier

13030: Everyone Is a Manager: AI Use as an Act of Management

Benjamin Leyden and Daniela Scur

13029: How Knowledge Crosses Borders: Evidence from Semiconductor Manufacturing

Pinelopi Goldberg, Reka Juhasz, Giulia Lo Forte and Jeff Thurk

13028: Optimal Paternalistic Regulation of Markets

Julien Combe and Yves Le Yaouanq

13027: Rotating Leadership and Coalitional Stability

Ola Andersson, Carlos Kurschilgen, Michael Kurschilgen and Daniel Spiro

13026: A Cyclical Long Memory Model for US Unemployment

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Sergio Di Nallo Serrano, Sergio E. García Bermejo and Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

13025: Do Agricultural Price Shocks Persist? A Fractional Integration Analysis for the MENA Agricultural Markets

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana and Oluwadare O. Ojo

13024: Dynamic Risk Externalities, Institutional Inertia, and the Limits of Viability

Ingrid Ott and Susanne Soretz

13023: Integrated vs. Separated Schooling for Refugee Children: Long-Term Effects on Education and Assimilation

Caterina Pavese, Simon ter Meulen and Ludger Woessmann

13022: Long-Run Trends in the Age of Labor Market Entry

Isabella Mantel and Regina Riphahn

13021: Gang Crackdowns

Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla and María Micaela Sviatschi

13020: AI-driven Technological Progress, Finite Change and Wages

Rajat Acharyya, Hamid Beladi, Gouranga G. Das, Shrimoyee Ganguly and Sugata Marjit

13019: Capital-Skill Complementarity Beyond Firm Boundaries

Gert Bijnens, Anders Humlum and Stijn Vanormelingen

13018: The Influence of the Vocal Few: Evidence from Social Media Comments

Dante Donati and Lena Song

13017: Childhood, Well-Being and Fairness

Marie-Louise Leroux, Pierre Pestieau and Gregory Ponthiere

13016: Long-Term Care with Myopia

Justina Klimaviciute, Pierre Pestieau and Jerome Schoenmaeckers

13015: The Invisible Continent. Counting the Missing Poor in Developing Countries

Mathieu Lefebvre, Harun Onder, Pierre Pestieau, Gregory Ponthiere and Emi Suzuki

13014: The Contribution of International Master Students to Entrepreneurship in the World

Michel Beine, Giovanni Peri, Morgan Raux and Lilie Timricht

13013: Dividend Taxes and the Passage to Maturity

Paolo M. Panteghini

13012: Organizing Expertise with Externalities: Evidence from Primary Care

Amanda Dahlstrand, Shan Huang, Nestor Le Nestour and Guy Michaels

13011: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Mitigation Deterrence: A Tractable Benchmark Model

Daniel Heyen, Joshua Bißbort and Frederik Holtel

13010: When the Right to Work from Home Works

Marco Alberto De Benedetto, Maria De Paola and Marco Francesconi