CESifo Working Paper Series

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8297: Priority of Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium

Bart Cockx, Michael Lechner and Joost Bollens

8296: Election Systems, the "Beauty Premium" in Politics, and the Beauty of Dissent

Niklas Potrafke, Marcus Rösch and Heinrich Ursprung

8295: The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics

Alejandro Cunat and Robert Zymek

8294: Supply Chain Reliability and International Economic Growth: Impacts of Disruptions like Covid-19

Rajeev Goel, James Saunoris and Srishti S. Goel

8293: Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists

Christopher Avery, William Bossert, Adam Thomas Clark, Glenn Ellison and Sara Ellison

8292: The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Michael Weber and Michael Weber

8291: The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

Robert Lehmann

8290: Optimal Epidemic Suppression under an ICU Constraint

Laurent Miclo, Daniel Spiro and Jörgen Weibull

8289: Economic Policy Uncertainty: Persistence and Cross-Country Linkages

Emmanuel Abakah, Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Luis Gil-Alana

8288: Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela and Ludo Visschers

8287: Currency Portfolio of External Debt, Exchange Rate Cyclicality, and Consumption Volatility

Eiji Fujii

8286: More Choice for Men? Marriage Patterns after World War II in Italy

Erich Battistin, Sascha Becker and Luca Nunziata

8285: Belief-Dependent Motivations and Psychological Game Theory

Pierpaolo Battigalli and Martin Dufwenberg

8284: Is There News in Inventories?

Christoph Görtz, Christopher Gunn and Thomas A. Lubik

8283: The Conservation Multiplier

Bard Harstad

8282: Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

Christiane Baumeister, Dimitris Korobilis and Thomas K. Lee

8281: What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History?

Erik Bengtsson, Enrico Rubolino and Daniel Waldenström

8280: The Global Effects of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty

Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo and Richard Kima

8279: Modernizing the European VAT

Sijbren Cnossen

8278: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble

Markus Brunnermeier, Sebastian Merkel and Yuliy Sannikov

8277: Prussia Disaggregated: The Demography of Its Universe of Localities in 1871

Sascha Becker and Francesco Cinnirella

8276: The Usual Suspects: Does Risk Tolerance, Altruism, and Health Predict the Response to Covid-19?

Ketki Sheth and Greg Wright

8275: Do Multinational Firms Use Tax Havens to the Detriment of Other Countries?

Dhammika Dharmapala

8274: US Sea Level Data: Time Trends and Persistence

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Gil-Alana and Laura Sauci

8273: Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016

Alina K. Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick and Ulrike I. Steins

8272: Optimal Policy under Dollar Pricing

Konstantin Egorov and Dmitry Mukhin

8271: Selling Dreams: Endogenous Optimism in Lending Markets

Luc Bridet and Peter Schwardmann

8270: Determinants of Global Value Chain Participation: Cross-Country Evidence

Ana Fernandes, Hiau Looi Kee and Deborah Winkler

8269: Pricing Pollution

Torben Mideksa

8268: The Impact of Peer-to-Peer Lending on Small Business Loans

Jin-Hyuk Kim and Frank Stähler

8267: Redistribution with Performance Pay

Pawel Doligalski, Abdoulaye Ndiaye and Nicolas Werquin

8266: Categorical Forecasts and Non-Categorical Loss Functions

Constantin Bürgi and Dorine Boumans

8265: Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: Evidence from Real Time Surveys

Abi Adams-Prassl, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin and Christopher Rauh

8264: The Dynamics of Outsourcing: From Labor Cost-Saving to Preference-Based Outsourcing

Wan-Jung Cheng, Raymond Riezman and Ping Wang

8263: Contagion of Pro- and Anti-Social Behavior among Peers and the Role of Social Proximity

Eugen Dimant

8262: The Effect of Social Distancing Measures on the Demand for Intensive Care: Evidence on Covid-19 in Scandinavia

Steffen Juranek and Floris Zoutman

8261: On the Productivity Advantage of Cities

Nick Jacob and Giordano Mion

8260: Reference-Dependent Preferences, Time Inconsistency, and Unfunded Pensions

Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya and Qing Liu

8259: The Welfare Effects of Persuasion and Taxation: Theory and Evidence from the Field

Matthias Rodemeier and Andreas Löschel

8258: A Spatial Analysis of Inward FDI and Rural-Urban Wage Inequality: Evidence from China

Hao Wang, Jan Fidrmuc and Qi Luo

8257: Gender Differences in Professional Career Dynamics: New Evidence from a Global Law Firm

Ina Ganguli, Ricardo Hausmann and Martina Viarengo

8256: Have Macroeconomic Models Lost Their Connection with Economic Reality?

Tom van Veen

8255: New Firms, Capital Intensity and the Labor Share: New Theoretical and Empirical Insights

Jakob Grazzini and Lorenza Rossi

8254: Market Reactions to Quest for Decentralization and Independence: Evidence from Catalonia

Vincenzo Galasso

8253: Economic Effects of Regional Energy System Transformations: An Application to the Bavarian Oberland Region

Ana Maria Montoya Gomez, Marie-Theres von Schickfus and Markus Zimmer

8252: The Effects of Graduating from High School in a Recession: College Investments, Skill Formation, and Labor-Market Outcomes

Franziska Hampf, Marc Piopiunik and Simon Wiederhold

8251: Why Are Average Hours Worked Lower in Richer Countries?

Alexander Bick, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, David Lagakos and Hitoshi Tsujiyama

8250: Risk Matters: Breaking Certainty Equivalence

Juan Parra-Alvarez, Hamza Polattimur and Olaf Posch

8249: Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk

Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

8248: International Trade and Social Connectedness

Michael Bailey, Abhinav Gupta, Sebastian Hillenbrand, Theresa Kuchler, Robert Richmond and Johannes Stroebel

8247: Cash Transfer Programs and Household Labor Supply

Daniela Del Boca, Chiara Pronzato and Giuseppe Sorrenti

8246: All Symmetric Equilibria in Differential Games with Public Goods

Niko Jaakkola, Florian Wagener and Florian O.O. Wagener

8245: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919

Robert Barro

8244: Exposure to the Covid-19 Stock Market Crash and its Effect on Household Expectations

Tobin Hanspal, Annika Weber and Johannes Wohlfart

8243: Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on Covid-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

8242: Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects

Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, Bodo Plachter, Constantin Weiser and Klaus Wälde

8241: The Geographic Spread of Covid-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook

Theresa Kuchler, Dominic Russel and Johannes Stroebel

8240: On the Optimal "Lockdown" during an Epidemic

Martin Gonzalez-Eiras and Dirk Niepelt

8239: Globalization for Sale

Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Paola Conconi and Mathieu Parenti

8238: Labor Markets during the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Michael Weber and Michael Weber

8237: Present-Focused Preferences and Sin Goods Consumption at the Extensive and Intensive Margins

Zarko Kalamov and Marco Runkel

8236: What Can We Learn from EU ETS?

Herman R.J. Vollebergh and Corjan Brink

8235: Politics in the Facebook Era - Evidence from the 2016 US Presidential Elections

Federica Liberini, Michela Redoano, Antonio Russo, Ángel Cuevas and Rubén Cuevas

8234: Labor Demand in the Past, Present and Future

Georg Graetz

8233: The Ability Gradient in Bunching

Spencer Bastani and Daniel Waldenström

8232: Working from Home, Wages, and Regional Inequality in the Light of Covid-19

Michael Irlacher and Michael Koch

8231: Overclaimed Refunds, Undeclared Sales, and Invoice Mills: Nature and Extent of Noncompliance in a Value-Added Tax

Mazhar Waseem and Mazhar Waseem

8230: Polygyny, Inequality, and Social Unrest

Tim Krieger and Laura Renner

8229: Big G

Lydia Cox, Gernot Müller, Ernesto Pasten, Raphael Schoenle, Michael Weber and Michael Weber

8228: Cryptocurrency Market Reactions to Regulatory News

Raphael Auer and Stijn Claessens

8227: Germany's Capacity to Work from Home

Jean-Victor Alipour, Oliver Falck and Simone Schüller

8226: Comparative Advantage in (Non-)Routine Production

Liza Archanskaia, Johannes Van Biesebroeck and Gerald Willmann

8225: Robo-Advising

Francesco D'Acunto and Alberto G. Rossi

8224: Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles

Francisco Ilabaca and Fabio Milani

8223: Islam and Human Capital in Historical Spain

Francesco Cinnirella, Alireza Naghavi and Giovanni Prarolo

8222: EU Solidarity and Policy in Fighting Infectious Diseases: State of Play, Obstacles, Citizen Preferences and Ways Forward

Anniek de Ruijter, Roel Beetsma, Brian Burgoon, Francesco Nicoli and Frank Vandenbroucke

8221: Who Teaches the Teachers? A RCT of Peer-to-Peer Observation and Feedback in 181 Schools

Richard Murphy, Felix Weinhardt and Gill Wyness

8220: Competition in Higher Education: A Survey

Michael Kaganovich, Sinan Sarpca and Xuejuan Su

8219: An Unemployment Re-Insurance Scheme for the Eurozone? Stabilizing and Redistributive Effects

Mathias Dolls

8218: Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Non-Neutrality of Money

Hassan Afrouzi

8217: Time in Office and the Changing Gender Gap in Dishonesty: Evidence from Local Politics in India

Ananish Chaudhuri, Vegard Iversen, Francesca R. Jensenius and Pushkar Maitra

8216: Aging and Health Care Expenditures: A Non-Parametric Approach

Normann Lorenz, Peter Ihle and Friedrich Breyer

8215: Endogenous Task-Based Technical Change - Factor Scarcity and Factor Prices -

Andreas Irmen

8214: Does the Winner Take It All? Redistributive Policies and Political Extremism

Gianmarco Daniele, Amedeo Piolatto and Willem Sas

8213: 25 Years of European Merger Control

Pauline Affeldt, Tomaso Duso and Florian Szücs

8212: Observability, Social Proximity, and the Erosion of Norm Compliance

Cristina Bicchieri, Eugen Dimant, Simon Gaechter and Daniele Nosenzo

8211: Persistence in the Market Risk Premium: Evidence across Countries

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Gil-Alana and Miguel Martin-Valmayor

8210: Indebted Demand

Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi

8209: When Do Teachers Respond to Student Feedback? Evidence from a Field Experiment

Margaretha Buurman, Josse Delfgaauw, Robert Dur and Robin Zoutenbier

8208: Asset Level Heterogeneity, Competition and Export Incentives: The Role of Credit Rationing

Sugata Marjit and Moushakhi Ray

8207: EU Accession: A Boon or Bane for Corruption?

Vincenzo Alfano, Salvatore Capasso and Rajeev Goel

8206: The Role of Caseworkers in Unemployment Insurance: Evidence from Unplanned Absences

Amelie Schiprowski

8205: Children’s Social Care and Early Intervention Policy in England

Dan Anderberg and Christina Olympiou

8204: Divided They Fall. Fragmented Parliaments and Government Stability

Felipe Carozzi, Davide Cipullo and Luca Repetto

8203: Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 12 OECD Countries

Mehdi El Herradi, Jakob de Haan and Aurélien Leroy

8202: A New Measure of Foreign Rule Based on Genetic Distance

Dhammika Dharmapala

8201: The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt

Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi

8200: Measuring Intra-Generational Redistribution in PAYG Pension Schemes

Jonas Klos, Tim Krieger and Sven Stöwhase

8199: Entrepôt: Hubs, Scale, and Trade Costs

Sharat Ganapati, Woan Foong Wong and Oren Ziv

8198: The Propagation of Business Expectations within the European Union

Anja Kukuvec and Harald Oberhofer