Working Paper Series

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2009999: Risk-adjusted forecasts of oil prices

Patrizio Pagano and Massimiliano Pisani

2009998: Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models

Alexander Chudik and Mohammad Pesaran

2009997: Financing obstacles and growth: an analysis for euro area non-financial corporations

Annalisa Ferrando, Carmen Martinez-Carrascal and Chiara Coluzzi

2009996: What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?

Matteo Ciccarelli and Garcí­a, Juan Angel

2009995: Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Alistair Dieppe and Alexander Chudik

2009994: Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area

Fabrizio Balassone, Jorge Cunha, Geert Langenus, Bernhard Manzke, Jeanne Pavot, Doris Prammer and Pietro Tommasino

2009993: Has emerging Asia decoupled? An analysis of production and trade linkages using the Asian international input-output table

Tuomas Peltonen and Gabor Pula

2009992: FDI and productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

Marcin Kolasa and Martin Bijsterbosch

2009991: The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

Antonio Afonso and Ricardo Sousa

2009990: Fiscal policy, housing and stock prices

Antonio Afonso and Ricardo Sousa

2009989: Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area

Christoffer Kok, Carlotta Rossi and David Marques-Ibanez

2008988: The interday and intraday patterns of the overnight market: evidence from an electronic platform

Alain Durré and Renaud Beaupain

2008987: Probability of informed trading on the euro overnight market rate: an update

Julien Idier and Stefano Nardelli

2008986: The topology of the federal funds market

Morten Bech and Enghin Atalay

2008985: Portuguese banks in the euro area market for daily funds

Luísa Farinha and Gaspar, Ví­tor

2008984: The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects

Daniel Thornton

2008983: What explains the spread between the euro overnight rate and the ECB's policy rate?

Tobias Linzert and Sandra Schmidt

2008982: Modelling short-term interest rate spreads in the euro money market

Nuno Cassola and Claudio Morana

2008981: Why the effective price for money exceeds the policy rate in the ECB tenders?

Tuomas Välimäki

2008980: Extracting market expectations from yield curves augmented by money market interest rates: the case of Japan

Teppei Nagano and Naohiko Baba

2008979: Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts

Giuseppe Ferrero and Andrea Nobili

2008978: Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments

Michael Joyce, Jonathan Relleen and Steffen Sorensen

2008977: Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

Massimo Guidolin and Daniel Thornton

2008976: The term structure of interest rates across frequencies

Katrin Assenmacher and Stefan Gerlach

2008975: Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side

Elke Hahn and Frauke Skudelny

2008974: Institutional features of wage bargaining in 23 European countries, the US and Japan

Daphne Momferatou, Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, Erwan Gautier and Philip Du Caju

2008973: Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?

Marcel Fratzscher and Arnaud Mehl

2008972: Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area

Matthieu Darracq Paries and Alessandro Notarpietro

2008971: Interactions between private and public sector wages

Antonio Afonso and Pedro Gomes

2008970: Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison

Marek Jarociński

2008969: Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns

Gianni Amisano and John Geweke

2008968: A value at risk analysis of cedit default swaps

Martin Scheicher and Burkhard Raunig

2008967: Central Bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules

Volker Wieland and Guenter Beck

2008966: Large Bayesian VARs

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and Marta Banbura

2008965: IMF lending and geopolitics

Julien Reynaud and Julien Vauday

2008964: Do firms provide wage insurance against shocks? Evidence from Hungary

Gábor Kátay

2008963: Public and private sector wages: co-movement and causality

Ana Lamo, Ludger Schuknecht and Javier Pérez

2008962: Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations

Stéphane Adjemian and Matthieu Darracq Paries

2008961: Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic

Antonio Afonso and Christophe Rault

2008960: On implications of micro price data for macro models

Frank Smets and Bartosz Maćkowiak

2008959: What drives U.S. current account fluctuations?

Roland Straub and Alina Barnett

2008958: Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor

Maurizio Michael Habib and Jan Stráský

2008957: Modeling autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis with multi-quantile CAViaR

Simone Manganelli, Halbert White and Tae-Hwan Kim

2008956: The political economy under monetary union: has the euro made a difference?

Marcel Fratzscher and Livio Stracca

2008955: Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles

Lawrence Christiano, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno and Cosmin Ilut

2008954: Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence and discretion

Antonio Afonso, Davide Furceri and Luca Agnello

2008953: Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model

Elena Angelini, Gerhard Rünstler and Marta Banbura

2008952: How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?

Marcel Fratzscher

2008951: Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: the role of emerging market economies

Matthieu Bussiere and Tuomas Peltonen

2008950: Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts

Peter McAdam and Ricardo Mestre

2008949: Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth

Elena Angelini, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Gerhard Rünstler, Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin

2008948: Clustering techniques applied to outlier detection of financial market series using a moving window filtering algorithm

Josep Maria Puigvert Gutiérrez and Josep Fortiana Gregori

2008947: Foreign-currency bonds: currency choice and the role of uncovered and covered interest parity

Maurizio Michael Habib and Mark Joy

2008946: Macroeconomic adjustment to monetary union

Gabriel Fagan and Gaspar, Ví­tor

2008945: Wage and price dynamics in Portugal

Carlos Marques

2008944: The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis

Anders Warne, Günter Coenen and Kai Christoffel

2008943: The impact of financial position on investment: an anlysis for non-financial corporations in the euro area

Annalisa Ferrando and Carmen Martinez-Carrascal

2008942: Towards a monetary policy evaluation framework

Stéphane Adjemian, Matthieu Darracq Paries and Stéphane Moyen

2008941: Euro's influence upon trade: Rose effect versus border effect

Gianluca Cafiso

2008940: The effect of durable goods and ICT on euro area productivity growth?

Jukka Jalava and Ilja Kristian Kavonius

2008939: An application of index numbers theory to interest rates

Javier Huerga and Lucia Steklacova

2008938: Channels of international risk-sharing: capital gains versus income flows

Thierry Bracke and Martin Schmitz

2008937: Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

Javier Pérez and Diego J. Pedregal

2008936: Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios

Domenico Giannone, Christine De Mol, Joshua Brodie, Ingrid Daubechies and Ignace Loris

2008935: Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence

Isabel Vansteenkiste and Christiane Nickel

2008934: Bank mergers and lending relationships

Judit Montoriol-Garriga

2008933: Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through

Stephane Dees, Matthias Burgert and Nicolas Parent

2008932: How does competition affect efficiency and soundness in banking? New empirical evidence

Klaus Schaeck and Martin Cihak

2008931: International stock return comovements

Geert Bekaert, Robert Hodrick and Xiaoyan Zhang

2008930: Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence

Jiri Slacalek, Jörg Döpke, Jonas Dovern and Ulrich Fritsche

2008929: Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?

Olga Arratibel, Reiner Martin and Davide Furceri

2008928: Corporate tax competition and the decline of public investment

Pedro Gomes and Francois Pouget

2008927: Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies

Marcelo Sánchez

2008926: Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability

Roberto De Santis, Carlo Favero and Barbara Roffia

2008925: Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Laurent Maurin and Katja Drechsel

2008924: Government spending volatility and the size of nations

Davide Furceri and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2008923: Resuscitating the wage channel in models with unemployment fluctuations

Kai Christoffel and Keith Kuester

2008922: A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models

Lucia Alessi, Matteo Barigozzi and Marco Capasso

2008921: Foreign direct investment and environmental taxes

Roberto De Santis and Frank Stähler

2008920: An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports

Antoine Berthou

2008919: Fiscal policy in real time

Jacopo Cimadomo

2008918: Imports and profitability in the euro area manufacturing sector: the role of emerging market economies

Tuomas Peltonen, Martin Skala, Alvaro Santos Rivera and Gabor Pula

2008917: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty

Paola Donati and Francesco Donati

2008916: Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies

Roland Beck and Ebrahim Rahbari

2008915: Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area

Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman

2008914: Evolution and sources of manufacturing productivity growth: evidence from a panel of European countries

Silvia Giannangeli and Ramón Gómez-Salvador

2008913: Country and industry equity risk premia in the euro area: an intertemporal approach

Lorenzo Cappiello, Angela Maddaloni and Marco Lo Duca

2008912: Labour cost and employment across euro area countries and sectors

Beatrice Pierluigi and Moreno Roma

2008911: Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach

Michael Fidora and Thierry Bracke

2008910: How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches

Martin Scheicher

2008909: Repo markets, counterparty risk and the 2007/2008 liquidity crisis

Christian Ewerhart and Jens Tapking

2008908: 3-step analysis of public finances sustainability: the case of the European Union

Antonio Afonso and Christophe Rault

2008907: Globalisation and the euro area: simulation based analysis using the New Area Wide Model

Roland Straub and Pascal Jacquinot

2008906: The impact of the euro on equity markets: a country and sector decomposition

Lorenzo Cappiello, Simone Manganelli and Arjan Kadareja

2008905: A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area

Livio Stracca and Laurent Bilke

2008904: Does money matter in the IS curve? The case of the UK

Barry Jones and Livio Stracca

2008903: A robust criterion for determining the number of static factors in approximate factor models

Lucia Alessi, Matteo Barigozzi and Marco Capasso

2008902: Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs

Matthias Mohr, Roland Straub and Günter Coenen

2008901: The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area

Luca Onorante, Diego J. Pedregal, Javier Pérez and Sara Signorini

2008900: Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

Fabrizio Venditti, Riccardo Cristadoro and Giuseppe Saporito