Working Paper Series

From European Central Bank
60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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20151860: What drives forbearance - evidence from the ECB Comprehensive Assessment

Carmelo Salleo, Timotej Homar and Heinrich Kick

20151859: Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis

Philip Vermeulen and Andra Buca

20151858: Fiscal policy adjustments in the euro area stressed countries: new evidence from non-linear models with state-varying thresholds

Roberto De Santis, Gabriella Legrenzi and Costas Milas

20151857: International spillovers in inflation expectations

Matteo Ciccarelli and Juan Angel García

20151856: Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy

Antonello D'Agostino and Jacopo Cimadomo

20151855: Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution

Galo Nuño Barrau and Cristiana Manescu

20151854: Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy

Georgios Georgiadis

20151853: Price level changes and the redistribution of nominal wealth across the euro area

Klaus Adam and Junyi Zhu

20151852: Financial literacy and savings account returns

Dimitris Georgarakos, Roman Inderst and Florian Deuflhard

20151851: A rotated Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro-financial applications

Ken Nyholm

20151850: Jagged cliffs and stumbling blocks: interest rate pass-through fragmentation during the Euro area crisis

Sarah Holton and d’Acri, Costanza Rodriguez

20151849: Drivers of banks' cost of debt and long-term benefits of regulation - an empirical analysis based on EU banks

Laurent Maurin and Artus Galiay

20151848: Systemic risk rankings and network centrality in the European banking sector

Valerie De Bruyckere

20151847: Private wealth across European countries: the role of income, inheritance and the welfare state

Pirmin Fessler and Martin Schürz

20151846: Characterising the financial cycle: a multivariate and time-varying approach

Paul Hiebert, Tuomas Peltonen and Yves Schüler

20151845: A false sense of security in applying handpicked equations for stress test purposes

Marco Gross and Francisco Javier Población García

20151844: Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets

Martin Bijsterbosch, Matteo Falagiarda, Gurnain Pasricha and Joshua Aizenman

20151843: Debt overhang and deleveraging in the US household sector: gauging the impact on consumption

Bruno Albuquerque and Georgi Krustev

20151842: The real effects of credit constraints: evidence from discouraged borrowers in the euro area

Annalisa Ferrando and Klaas Mulier

20151841: Inattention to rare events

Bartosz Maćkowiak and Mirko Wiederholt

20151840: Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations

Philipp Engler and Christoph Grosse Steffen

20151839: The geography of the great rebalancing in euro area bond markets during the sovereign debt crisis

Roland Beck, Georgios Georgiadis and Johannes Gräb

20151838: Estimation of linear dynamic panel data models with time-invariant regressors

Claudia Schwarz and Sebastian Kripfganz

20151837: Modeling financial sector joint tail risk in the euro area

Bernd Schwaab, Andre Lucas and Xin Zhang

20151836: Assessing the financial and financing conditions of firms in Europe: the financial module in CompNet

Annalisa Ferrando, Carlo Altomonte, Sven Blank, Philipp Meinen, Matteo Iudice, Marie-Helene Felt, Katja Neugebauer and Iulia Siedschlag

20151835: Between capture and discretion - The determinants of distressed bank treatment and expected government support

Magdalena Ignatowski, Josef Korte and Charlotte Werger

20151834: Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?

Gabriel Perez Quiros, Javier Pérez and Joan Paredes

20151833: The great collapse in value added trade

Robert Stehrer and Arne Nagengast

20151832: Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis

Juan F Jimeno

20151831: Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers

Benjamin Böninghausen and Michael Zabel

20151830: Optimal capital requirements over the business and financial cycles

Frederic Malherbe

20151829: Creditor protection, judicial enforcement and credit access

Annalisa Ferrando, Andrea Moro and Daniela Maresch

20151828: Network linkages to predict bank distress

Tuomas Peltonen, Peter Sarlin and Andreea Piloiu

20151827: Capital regulation in a macroeconomic model with three layers of default

Kalin Nikolov, Livio Stracca, Alexis Derviz, Caterina Mendicino, Stéphane Moyen, Laurent Clerc, Javier Suarez and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

20151826: Virtual proximity and audiovisual services trade

Martin Schmitz and Christiane Hellmanzik

20151825: Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity

Dario Bonciani and Björn van Roye

20151824: Shoe-leather costs in the euro area and the foreign demand for euro banknotes

Alessandro Calza and Andrea Zaghini

20151823: Financial constraints and productivity: evidence from euro area companies

Annalisa Ferrando and Alessandro Ruggieri

20151822: Gender bias and credit access

Steven Ongena and Alexander Popov

20151821: Financing constraints, employment, and labor compensation: evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis

Alexander Popov and Jörg Rocholl

20151820: Sovereign stress, unconventional monetary policy, and SME access to finance

Annalisa Ferrando, Alexander Popov and Gregory Udell

20151819: Euro area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?

Benjamin Klaus and Filippo Ferroni

20151818: An alternative view of exchange market pressure episodes in emerging Europe: an analysis using Extreme Value Theory (EVT)

Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz and Desislava Rusinova

20151817: Wealth effects on consumption across the wealth distribution: empirical evidence

Frédérique Savignac, Luc Arrondel and Pierre Lamarche

20151816: Conservatism and liquidity traps

Sebastian Schmidt and Taisuke Nakata

20151815: Spillovers and euroscepticism

Demosthenes Ioannou, Jean-Francois Jamet and Johannes Kleibl

20151814: VAR for VaR: measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles

Simone Manganelli, Halbert White and Tae-Hwan Kim

20151813: A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow

Giovanni Ricco

20151812: The relationship between structural and cyclical features of the EU financial sector

Hanno Stremmel and Balázs Zsámboki

20151811: Capturing the financial cycle in Europe

Hanno Stremmel

20151810: Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries

Katerina Smidkova, Mark Joy, Marek Rusnák and Bořek Vašíček

20151809: Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS Price? Evidence from the Eurosystem

Esa Jokivuolle, Eero Tölö and Matti Virén

20151808: Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?

Alexander Jung and Makram El-Shagi

20151807: Does uncertainty affect participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

Víctor López Pérez

20151806: Will the true labor share stand up?

Peter McAdam, Jakub Mućk and Jakub Growiec

20151805: Credit market disequilibrium in Greece (2003-2011) - a Bayesian approach

Angelos Vouldis

20151804: Bank bailouts and competition - Did TARP distort competition among sound banks?

Michael Koetter and Felix Noth

20151803: The information content of money and credit for US activity

Franz Seitz, Ursel Baumann and Bruno Albuquerque

20151802: What has driven inflation dynamics in the Euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States

Marko Melolinna

20151801: The exchange rate, asymmetric shocks and asymmetric distributions

Filippo di Mauro and Calin-Vlad Demian

20151800: Unraveling the skill premium

Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman

20151799: Financial exposure to the euro area before and after the crisis: home bias and institutions at home

Maurizio Michael Habib and Vincent Floreani

20151798: Capital inflows and euro area long-term interest rates

Michael Fidora and Daniel Carvalho

20151797: Bank bias in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth

Sam Langfield and Marco Pagano

20151796: Real estate markets and macroprudential policy in Europe

Philipp Hartmann

20151795: Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules

Sebastian Schmidt

20151794: Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs

Anders Warne, Matthieu Droumaguet and Tomasz Woźniak

20151793: Collateral damage? Micro-simulation of transaction cost shocks on the value of central bank collateral

Florian Walch and Rudolf Alvise Lennkh

20151792: The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed

Diego Moccero and Jean-Yves Gnabo

20151791: Interest rates, money, and banks in an estimated euro area model

Andreas Schabert and Kai Christoffel

20151790: Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area

Michael Ziegelmeyer, Alessandro Porpiglia, Federica Teppa, Julia Le Blanc and Junyi Zhu

20151789: Exploring price and non-price determinants of trade flows in the largest euro-area countries

Claire Giordano and Francesco Zollino

20151788: Assessing European firms' exports and productivity distributions: the CompNet trade module

Emmanuel Dhyne, Antoine Berthou, Ana Cristina Soares, Matteo Bugamelli, Ana-Maria Cazacu, Tibor Lalinsky, Jaanika Meriküll, Péter Harasztosi, Calin-Vlad Demian and Filippo Oropallo

20151787: "Made in China" - How does it affect our understanding of global market shares?

Julia Wörz and Konstantins Benkovskis

20151786: Optimal supervisory architecture and financial integration in a banking union

Jean-Edouard Colliard

20151785: A measure of redenomination risk

Roberto De Santis

20151784: Policy mandates for macro-prudential and monetary policies in a new Keynesian framework

Paul Levine and Diana Lima

20151783: Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans

Marcin Kolasa, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Krzysztof Makarski

20151782: The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: a comparative analysis

Matteo Falagiarda and Wildmer Daniel Gregori

20151781: The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

Antonio Afonso, Michael Arghyrou and Alexandros Kontonikas

20151780: Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?

Peter McAdam and Dimitris Christopoulos

20151779: Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) story

Adonis Antoniades

20151778: European firm adjustment during times of economic crisis

Silvia Fabiani, Ana Lamo, Julian Messina and Tairi Rõõm

20151777: Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries

António Rua, Paulo Esteves, Karsten Staehr and Elena Bobeica

20151776: Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects

Antonello D'Agostino and Caterina Mendicino

20151775: Housing market dynamics: Any news?

Caterina Mendicino and Sandra Gomes

20151774: Does fiscal austerity affect public opinion?

Livio Stracca and Anna Kalbhenn

20151773: An automatic leading indicator, variable reduction and variable selection methods using small and large datasets: Forecasting the industrial production growth for euro area economies

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, George Kapetanios, Fotis Papailias and Martin Weale

20151772: Fragility in money marketfunds: sponsor support and regulation

Cecilia Parlatore

20151771: Governments' payment discipline: the macroeconomic impact of public payment delays and arrears

Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Alexander Klemm and Paul Viefers

20151770: The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

Massimo Giuliodori, Roel Beetsma, Jacopo Cimadomo and Oana Furtuna

20151769: Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow

Peter Sarlin and Bruce A. Ramsay

20151768: Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization

Peter Sarlin

20151767: Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?

Frank Smets and Robert Beyer

20151766: Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises

Willem Schudel

20151765: Endogenous labor share cycles: theory and evidence

Peter McAdam, Jakub Mućk and Jakub Growiec

20151764: Assessing European competitiveness: the new CompNet microbased database

Filippo di Mauro and Paloma Lopez-Garcia

20151763: Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the new Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?

Víctor López Pérez

20151762: Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession

Dimitris Georgarakos, Dimitris Christelis and Tullio Jappelli

20151761: Global value chains: a view from the euro area

João Amador, Robert Stehrer and Rita Cappariello