Working Paper Series

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200198: The credit channel in the Netherlands: evidence from bank balance sheets

Leo de Haan

200197: Asymmetries in bank lending behaviour. Austria during the 1990s

Sylvia Kaufmann

200196: The reaction of bank lending to monetary policy measures in Germany

Andreas Worms

200195: Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle

Benoit Mojon and Anna Maria Agresti

200194: Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?

Peter J. A. van Els, Julian Morgan, Alberto Locarno and Jean-Pierre Villetelle

200193: The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models

Peter McAdam and Julian Morgan

200192: A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area

Benoit Mojon and Gert Peersman

200191: The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis

Gert Peersman and Frank Smets

200190: Public pensions and growth

Stéphane Lambrecht, Philippe Michel and Jean-Pierre Vidal

200189: Monetary policy and fears of financial instability

Vincent Brousseau and Carsten Detken

200188: Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?

Lutz Kilian and Mark Taylor

200187: Credit rationing, output gap, and business cycles

Frédéric Boissay

200186: Rational expectations and near rational alternatives: How best to form expectations

Mike Beeby, Stephan George Hall and Brian S. Henry

200185: Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach

Francisco Maeso-Fernandez, Chiara Osbat and Bernd Schnatz

200184: Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy

Andrew Levin, Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

200183: Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts and the Bank of England's fan charts

Kenneth Wallis

200182: Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research

Michael Clements and David Hendry

200181: What can changes in structural factors tell us about unemployment in Europe?

Julian Morgan and Annabelle Mourougane

200180: The microstructure of the euro money market

Philipp Hartmann, Michele Manna and Andrés Manzanares

200179: Does liquidity matter? Properties of a synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the euro area

Livio Stracca

200178: Investment and monetary policy in the euro area

Benoit Mojon, Frank Smets and Philip Vermeulen

200177: Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach

Carine Bouthevillain, Philippine Cour-Thimann, Gerrit van de Dool, Pablo Hernández de Cos, Geert Langenus, Matthias Mohr, Sandro Momigliano and Mika Tujula

200176: Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?

Anthony Richards and Reint Gropp

200175: Value at risk models in finance

Robert Engle and Simone Manganelli

200174: Interbank market integration under asymmetric information

Xavier Freixas and Cornelia Holthausen

200173: Interbank lending and monetary policy transmission - evidence for Germany

Michael Ehrmann and Andreas Worms

200172: Bank Concentration and Retail Interest Rates

Sandrine Corvoisier and Reint Gropp

200171: Asset market linkages in crisis periods

Philipp Hartmann, Stefan Straetmans and Casper de Vries

200170: Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors: Quality, publication and the control of the overnight rate

Ulrich Bindseil

200169: The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market

Gabriel Perez Quiros, Jorge Sicilia and Gaspar, Ví­tor

200168: The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty

Andrew Levin, Volker Wieland and John Williams

200167: The daily market for funds in Europe: Has something changed with the EMU?

Gabriel Perez Quiros and Hugo Rodriguez Mendizabal

200166: Can short-term foreign exchange volatility be predicted by the Global Hazard Index?

Vincent Brousseau and Fabio Scacciavillani

200165: A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

Silvia Fabiani and Ricardo Mestre

200164: Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports

Robert Anderton and Frauke Skudelny

200163: Does money lead inflation in the euro area?

Sergio Nicoletti Altimari

200162: Spectral based methods to identify common trends and common cycles

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and George Kapetanios

200161: Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area

Jerome Henry, Ricardo Mestre and Peter Backé

200160: A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties

Jerome Henry, Ricardo Mestre and Peter Backé

200159: Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy

Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets

200158: Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities

Gabriel Perez Quiros and Allan Timmermann

200157: Model-based indicators of labour market rigidity

Silvia Fabiani and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela

200156: Stabilization policy in a two country model and the role of financial frictions

Ester Faia

200155: Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area

Alessandro Calza, Christine Gartner and João Sousa

200154: Assessment criteria for output gap estimates

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela

200153: An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area

Juan Vega and Mark Wynne

200152: Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?

Gert Peersman and Frank Smets

200151: The functional form of the demand for euro area M1

Livio Stracca

200150: Employment and productivity growth in service and manufacturing sectors in France, Germany and the US

Till von Wachter

200149: Business cycle and monetary policy analysis in a structural sticky-price model of the euro area

Miguel Casares

200148: Financial market integration in Europe: on the effects of EMU on stock markets

Marcel Fratzscher

200147: Deposit insurance and moral hazard: does the counterfactual matter?

Jukka Vesala and Reint Gropp

200146: A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates

Jorge Luis and Nuno Cassola

200145: Testing the rank of the Hankel matrix: a statistical approach

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and George Kapetanios

200144: The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months

Ulrich Bindseil and Franz Seitz

200143: Sources of economic renewal: from the traditional firm to the knowledge firm

Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela

200142: An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area

Gabriel Fagan, Jerome Henry and Ricardo Mestre

200141: Why adopt transparency? The publication of central bank forecasts

Petra M. Geraats

200040: Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy

Benoit Mojon

200039: A money demand system for euro area M3

Claus Brand and Nuno Cassola

200038: The optimal inflation tax when taxes are costly to collect

Fiorella De Fiore

200037: Business fixed investment: evidence of a financial accelerator in Europe

Philip Vermeulen

200036: Measuring core inflation in the euro area

Claudio Morana

200035: Systemic risk: A survey

Olivier de Bandt and Philipp Hartmann

200034: Capital market development, corporate governance and the credibility of exchange rate pegs

Tuomas Takalo and Olli Castrén

200033: The information content of M3 for future inflation

Carmine Trecroci and Juan Vega

200032: Can indeterminacy explain the short-run non-neutrality of money?

Fiorella De Fiore

200031: The disappearing tax base: is foreign direct investment eroding corporate income taxes?

Kristina Kostial and Reint Gropp

200030: A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities

Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

200029: The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case

Silvia Fabiani, Alberto Locarno, Giampaolo Oneto and Paolo Sestito

200028: Learning, uncertainty and central bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions

Martin Ellison and Natacha Valla

200027: This is what the US leading indicators lead

Maximo Camacho and Gabriel Perez Quiros

200026: Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making

Bernhard Winkler

200025: Caution and conservatism in the making of monetary policy

Philip Schellekens

200024: What horizon for price stability

Frank Smets

200023: Escaping Nash inflation

Inkoo Cho and Thomas Sargent

200022: Regulating access to international large-value payment systems

Cornelia Holthausen and Thomas Rønde

200021: Firm size and monetary policy transmission: evidence from German business survey data

Michael Ehrmann

200020: Convergence of fiscal policies in the euro area

Olivier de Bandt and Francesco Mongelli

200019: The euro and international capital markets

Carsten Detken and Philipp Hartmann

200018: House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis

Matteo Iacoviello

200017: Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment

Silvia Fabiani and Ricardo Mestre

200016: Estimating the implied distribution of the future short term interest rate using the Longstaff-Schwartz model

Peter Hördahl

200015: The quest for prosperity without inflation

Athanasios Orphanides

200014: Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty

Glenn Rudebusch

200013: Monetary policy with uncertain parameters

Ulf Söderström

200012: Indicator variables for optimal policy

Lars Svensson and Michael Woodford

200011: Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?

Peter Bergeijk and Jan Marc Berk

200010: On the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention

Rasmus Fatum

20210: Estimating the Fed’s Unconventional Policy Shocks

Marek Jarociński

20009: Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

Günter Coenen

19998: Inflation zone targeting

Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland

19997: A cross-country comparison of market structures in European banking

E Davis and Olivier de Bandt

19996: The demand for M3 in the euro area

Juan Vega and Günter Coenen

19995: Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues

Mark Wynne

19994: From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries

Ignazio Angeloni and Luca Dedola

19993: Fiscal policy effectiveness and neutrality results in a non-Ricardian world

Carsten Detken

19992: What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank

Carlo Monticello and Oreste Tristani

19991: A global hazard index for the world foreign exchange markets

Vincent Brousseau and Fabio Scacciavillani