Working Paper Series

From European Central Bank
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20172040: Fiscal spillovers in the euro area a model-based analysis

Igor Vetlov, Maria Grazia Attinasi and Magdalena Lalik

20172039: Macroeconomic effects of secondary market trading

Daniel Neuhann

20172038: Stagnation traps

Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro

20172037: The time dimension of the links between loss given default and the macroeconomy

Jakub Seidler, Tomas Konecny, Aelita Belyaeva and Konstantin Belyaev

20172036: Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area

Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Václav Žďárek

20172035: Safe assets: a review

Pascal Golec and Enrico Perotti

20172034: The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps

Ioannis Grintzalis, David Lodge and Ana-Simona Manu

20172033: The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Thomas Werner

20172032: Government guarantees and financial stability

Elena Carletti, Agnese Leonello, Franklin Allen and Itay Goldstein

20172031: How robust is the result that the cost of "leaning against the wind" exceeds the benefit?

Lars E. O. Svensson

20172030: Financial transaction taxes, market composition, and liquidity

Peter Hoffmann and Jean-Edouard Colliard

20172029: Macro stress testing euro area banks' fees and commissions

Christoffer Kok, Cosimo Pancaro and Harun Mirza

20172028: A stochastic forward-looking model to assess the profitability and solvency of European insurers

Christoffer Kok, Cosimo Pancaro and Elia Berdin

20172027: Economic crises and the eligiblity for the lender of last resort: evidence from 19th century France

Clemens Jobst and Vincent Bignon

20172026: A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU

Mariarosaria Comunale

20172025: Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?

Peter Sarlin and Gregor von Schweinitz

20172024: Global inflation: the role of food, housing and energy prices

Miles Parker

20172023: Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility

Michael Ehrmann and Jonathan Talmi

20172022: The role of counterparty risk and asymmetric information in the interbank market

Giuseppe Cappelletti and Giovanni Guazzarotti

20172021: The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment

Igor Vetlov, Marien Ferdinandusse, Jasper De Jong and Josip Funda

20172020: High frequency trading and fragility

Giovanni Cespa and Xavier Vives

20172019: The impact of constrained monetary policy on fiscal multipliers on output and inflation

Tilman Bletzinger and Magdalena Lalik

20172018: Exchange rate prediction redux: new models, new data, new currencies

Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, Antonio Garcia Pascual and Yi Zhang

20172017: Inside asset purchase programs: the effects of unconventional policy on banking competition

Michael Wedow, Michael Koetter and Natalia Podlich

20172016: Interactions between fiscal multipliers and sovereign risk premium during fiscal consolidation: model based assessment for the euro area

Magdalena Lalik

20172015: Forecasting euro area inflation using targeted predictors: is money coming back?

João Sousa and Matteo Falagiarda

20172014: The drivers of revenue productivity: a new decomposition analysis with firm-level data

Filippo di Mauro, Giordano Mion and Daniel Stöhlker

20172013: Regular versus lump-sum payments in union contracts and household consumption

Roberta Zizza and Effrosyni Adamopoulou

20172012: Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model

Marco Lo Duca and Tomas Adam

20172011: Understanding sovereign rating movements in euro area countries

Beatrice Pierluigi, Jan Bruha, Ralph Setzer and Moritz Karber

20172010: The systemic implications of bail-in: a multi-layered network approach

Christoffer Kok, Grzegorz Hałaj, Anne-Caroline Hüser, Cristian Perales and Anton van der Kraaij

20172009: Securitization and credit quality

Steven Ongena, Alper Kara and David Marques-Ibanez

20172008: Banks credit and productivity growth

Filippo di Mauro, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Fadi Hassan

20172007: The rational inattention filter

Filip Matejka, Mirko Wiederholt and Bartosz Maćkowiak

20172006: Demographics and inflation

Christiane Nickel, Elena Bobeica, Eliza Lis and Yiqiao Sun

20172005: Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area

Stefano Neri, Andrea Nobili and Antonio Conti

20172004: Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area

Willi Semmler and Marco Gross

20172003: Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area

Mariarosaria Comunale and Davor Kunovac

20172002: Changing prices... changing times: evidence for Italy

Silvia Fabiani and Mario Porqueddu

20172001: Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve

Ursel Baumann and Bruno Albuquerque

20172000: Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't

Marek Jarociński and Elena Bobeica

20171999: The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?

Geoff Kenny and Jonas Dovern

20171998: Inflation anchoring in the euro area

Christian Speck

20171997: Tail co-movement in inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring

Filippo Natoli and Laura Sigalotti

20171996: A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring

Filippo Natoli and Laura Sigalotti

20171995: Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations

Matteo Ciccarelli, Juan Angel García and Carlos Montes-Galdón

20171994: Trust, but verify. De-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity

Alberto Locarno, Davide Delle Monache, Fabio Busetti and Andrea Gerali

20171993: Trade, finance or policies: what drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?

Livio Stracca and Letizia Montinari

20171992: Pricing of bonds and equity when the zero lower bound is relevant

Heinrich Kick

20171991: Below the zero lower bound: a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area

Wolfgang Lemke and Andreea Liliana Vladu

20171990: Financial inclusion: what’s it worth?

Michael Ehrmann and Miguel Ampudia Fraile

20171989: Revenue elasticities in euro area countries

Gerrit Koester and Christoph Priesmeier

20161988: Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union

Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, Marek Jarociński, Bartosz Maćkowiak and Sebastian Schmidt

20161987: Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads: the role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations

Roland Beck, Gianluigi Ferrucci, Arno Hantzsche and Matthias Rau-Goehring

20161986: A global trade model for the euro area

Chiara Osbat, Antonello D'Agostino and Michele Modugno

20161985: The risk-adjusted monetary policy rule

Sebastian Schmidt and Taisuke Nakata

20161984: Towards more resilient economies: the role of well-functioning economic structures

David Sondermann

20161983: Bank efficiency and regional growth in Europe: new evidence from micro-data

Ansgar Belke, Ralph Setzer and Ulrich Haskamp

20161982: The impact of disasters on inflation

Miles Parker

20161981: Capital and labour (mis)allocation in the euro area: some stylized facts and determinants

Elisa Gamberoni, Claire Giordano and Paloma Lopez-Garcia

20161980: US-euro area term structure spillovers, implications for central banks

Ken Nyholm

20161979: Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries

Roberto De Santis and Michael Stein

20161978: Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through

Carlo Altavilla, Fabio Canova and Matteo Ciccarelli

20161977: Home bias in bank sovereign bond purchases and the bank-sovereign nexus

Desislava Andreeva and Thomas Vlassopoulos

20161976: Gradualism and liquidity traps

Sebastian Schmidt and Taisuke Nakata

20161975: Contagion, spillover and interdependence

Roberto Rigobon

20161974: How exporters set prices: evidence from a large behavioural survey

Miles Parker

20161973: The optimal conduct of central bank asset purchases

Matthieu Darracq Paries and Michael Kühl

20161972: Forecast combination for euro area inflation: a cure in times of crisis?

Kirstin Hubrich and Frauke Skudelny

20161971: Crisis severity and the international trade network

Marianna Endresz and Frauke Skudelny

20161970: Firm responses to employment subsidies: a regression discontinuity approach to the 2012 Spanish labour market reform

Elisa Gamberoni, Katerina Gradeva and Sebastian Weber

20161969: Bank exposures and sovereign stress transmission

Carlo Altavilla, Marco Pagano and Saverio Simonelli

20161968: Carry trades and monetary conditions

Andrea Falconio

20161967: The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought

Lucia Alessi and Mark Kerssenfischer

20161966: An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area

Michele Lenza and Marek Jarociński

20161965: Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Alain Durré and Francesco Mongelli

20161964: Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks

Jacopo Cimadomo, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Ricco

20161963: Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe

Edmund Moshammer, Beatrice Pierluigi and Klaus Masuch

20161962: Multiplex interbank networks and systemic importance: an application to European data

Iñaki Aldasoro and Iván Alves

20161961: Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?

Alexander Jung

20161960: Got rejected? Real effects of not getting a loan

Tobias Berg

20161959: Interbank loans, collateral and modern monetary policy

Marcin Wolski and Michiel van de Leur

20161958: How you export matters: the disassortative structure of international trade

Andreas Joseph and Chiara Osbat

20161957: Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE

Tobias Sebastian Blattner and Michael Joyce

20161956: The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment

Johannes Breckenfelder, Fiorella De Fiore, Philippe Andrade, Peter Karadi and Oreste Tristani

20161955: Has the exchange rate pass through recently declined in the euro area?

Selin Özyurt

20161954: Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks

Björn Hilberg, Michael Grill and Norbert Metiu

20161953: Animal spirits, fundamental factors and business cycle fluctuations

Stephane Dees and Srečko Zimic

20161952: The great moderation in international capital flows: a global phenomenon?

Martin Schmitz and Peter McQuade

20161951: The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data

Carlo Altavilla and Domenico Giannone

20161950: Is corruption efficiency-enhancing? A case study of nine Central and Eastern European countries

Christine Gartner, Claire Giordano, Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Elisa Gamberoni

20161949: The stock market effects of a securities transaction tax: quasi-experimental evidence from Italy

Pietro Tommasino, Giuseppe Cappelletti and Giovanni Guazzarotti

20161948: Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors

Irena Mikolajun and David Lodge

20161947: Deciding with judgment

Simone Manganelli

20161946: Real exchange rates and international co-movement: news-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets

Kyriacos Lambrias

20161945: Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data

Tomasz Łyziak and Maritta Paloviita

20161944: Multi-layered interbank model for assessing systemic risk

Christoffer Kok and Mattia Montagna

20161943: When shadows grow longer: shadow banking with endogenous entry

Anil Ari, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Christoffer Kok and Dawid Żochowski

20161942: Policy spillovers and synergies in a monetary union

Carlos Thomas, Samuel Hurtado and Oscar Arce

20161941: The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries

Olegs Tkacevs, Styliani Christodoulopoulou and Elena Bobeica