Working Paper Series

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20172099: Household spending out of a tax rebate: Italian “€80 tax bonus”

Andrea Neri, Concetta Rondinelli and Filippo Scoccianti

20172098: Do negative interest rates make banks less safe?

Federico Calogero Nucera, Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20172097: Firm heterogeneity and aggregate business services exports: micro evidence from Belgium, France, Germany and Spain

Andrea Ariu, Elena Biewen, Sven Blank, Guillaume Gaulier, María Jesus González, Philipp Meinen, Daniel Mirza, Cesar Martin Machuca and Patry Tello

20172096: Home, safe home: cross-country monitoring framework for vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector

Elias Bengtsson, Magdalena Grothe and Etienne Lepers

20172095: Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe

Isabella Moder

20172094: Subsidising car purchases in the euro area: any spill-over on production?

Joan Paredes

20172093: Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax

Ursel Baumann, Alistair Dieppe and Allan Gloe Dizioli

20172092: Sources of the small firm financing premium: evidence from euro area banks

Sarah Holton and Fergal McCann

20172091: The political economy of fiscal transparency and independent fiscal councils

Roel Beetsma, Xavier Debrun and Randolph Sloof

20172090: What drives export market shares? It depends! An empirical analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging

Chiara Osbat, Konstantins Benkovskis, Benjamin Bluhm, Elena Bobeica and Stefan Zeugner

20172089: Multiple lending, credit lines and financial contagion

Giuseppe Cappelletti and Paolo Emilio Mistrulli

20172088: On secular stagnation and low interest rates: demography matters

Giuseppe Ferrero, Marco Gross and Stefano Neri

20172087: Housing and the tax system: how large are the distortions in the euro area?

Serena Fatica and Doris Prammer

20172086: Credit market competition and the gender gap: evidence from local labor markets

Alexander Popov and Sonia Zaharia

20172085: Between hawks and doves: measuring central bank communication

Ellen Tobback, Stefano Nardelli and David Martens

20172084: Bank business models at zero interest rates

Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20172083: Active labour market policies and short-time work arrangements: evidence from a survey of Luxembourg firms

Konstantinos Efstathiou, Thomas Mathä, Cindy Veiga and Ladislav Wintr

20172082: Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks

Georgios Georgiadis and Martina Jančoková

20172081: Destabilizing effects of bank overleveraging on real activity - an analysis based on a threshold MCS-GVAR

Marco Gross, Jerome Henry and Willi Semmler

20172080: Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times

Günter Coenen, Michael Ehrmann, Gaetano Gaballo, Peter Hoffmann, Anton Nakov, Stefano Nardelli, Eric Persson and Georg Strasser

20172079: The leverage ratio, risk-taking and bank stability

Jonathan Acosta Smith, Michael Grill and Jan Hannes Lang

20172078: When do countries implement structural reforms?

António Dias Da Silva, Audrey Givone and David Sondermann

20172077: Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area

Derrick Kanngiesser, Reiner Martin, Laurent Maurin and Diego Moccero

20172076: Structural asymmetries and financial imbalances in the eurozone

Ivan Jaccard and Frank Smets

20172075: The macroeconomic impact of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme (APP)

Luca Gambetti and Alberto Musso

20172074: Reducing large net foreign liabilities

Michael Fidora, Martin Schmitz and Céline Tcheng

20172073: House prices and monetary policy in the euro area: evidence from structural VARs

Andrea Nocera and Moreno Roma

20172072: Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise

Marek Jarociński and Bartosz Maćkowiak

20172071: Lobbying in Europe: new firm-level evidence

Konstantinos Dellis and David Sondermann

20172070: Business models of the banks in the euro area

Matteo Farnè and Angelos Vouldis

20172069: Culture and household saving

Benjamin Guin

20172068: Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles

Eddie Gerba and Dawid Żochowski

20172067: Government guarantees and the two-way feedback between banking and sovereign debt crises

Agnese Leonello

20172066: Determinants of FDI inflows in advanced economies: Does the quality of economic structures matter?

Konstantinos Dellis, David Sondermann and Isabel Vansteenkiste

20172065: The importance of being special: repo markets during the crisis

Stefano Corradin and Angela Maddaloni

20172064: Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects

Erik Frohm and Vanessa Gunnella

20172063: Does employment protection legislation affect credit access? Evidence from Europe

Andrea Moro, Daniela Maresch, Annalisa Ferrando and Gregory F. Udell

20172062: The great Irish (de)leveraging 2005-14

Reamonn Lydon and Tara McIndoe-Calder

20172061: Capital requirements, risk shifting and the mortgage market

Arzu Uluc and Tomasz Wieladek

20172060: Reading the Footprints: how foreign investors shape countries' participation in global value chains

Christian Buelens and Marcel Tirpák

20172059: Does marketing widen borders? Cross-country price dispersion in the European car market

Eyal Dvir and Georg Strasser

20172058: On the sources of business cycles: implications for DSGE models

Michal Andrle, Jan Bruha and Serhat Solmaz

20172057: How to predict financial stress? An assessment of Markov switching models

Thibaut Duprey and Benjamin Klaus

20172056: Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area

Roel Beetsma, Massimo Giuliodori, Jesper Hanson and Frank de Jong

20172055: Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: identification by absolute magnitude restrictions

Roberto De Santis and Srečko Zimic

20172054: Do stress tests matter? Evidence from the 2014 and 2016 stress tests

Oana-Maria Georgescu, Marco Gross, Daniel Kapp and Christoffer Kok

20172053: Learning from prices: amplication and business fluctuations

Ryan Chahrour and Gaetano Gaballo

20172052: Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment

Roberto De Santis and Fédéric Holm-Hadulla

20172051: Wage bargaining regimes and firms' adjustments to the Great Recession

Maddalena Ronchi and Filippo di Mauro

20172050: If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?

Luca Dedola, Giulia Rivolta and Livio Stracca

20172049: Internal devaluation in currency unions: the role of trade costs and taxes

Filippos Petroulakis

20172048: Firm growth in Europe: an overview based on the CompNet labour module

Cristina Fernandez, Roberto García, Paloma Lopez-Garcia, Benedicta Marzinotto, Roberta Serafini, Juuso Vanhala and Ladislav Wintr

20172047: Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis

Alan Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen

20172046: Home sweet home: the home bias in trade in the European Union

Alina Mika

20172045: ECB-Global: introducing ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis

Alistair Dieppe, Georgios Georgiadis, Martino Ricci, Ine Van Robays and Björn van Roye

20172044: Volatility spillovers of Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheet expansions to emerging market economies

Apostolos Apostolou and John Beirne

20172043: Did the crisis permanently scar the Portuguese labour market? Evidence from a Markov-switching Beveridge curve analysis

Isabel Vansteenkiste

20172042: Threshold effects of financial stress on monetary policy rules: a panel data analysis

Björn van Roye and Danvee Floro

20172041: How does risk flow in the credit default swap market?

Martin Scheicher, Tuomas Peltonen, Marco D'Errico and Stefano Battiston

20172040: Fiscal spillovers in the euro area a model-based analysis

Igor Vetlov, Maria Grazia Attinasi and Magdalena Lalik

20172039: Macroeconomic effects of secondary market trading

Daniel Neuhann

20172038: Stagnation traps

Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro

20172037: The time dimension of the links between loss given default and the macroeconomy

Jakub Seidler, Tomas Konecny, Aelita Belyaeva and Konstantin Belyaev

20172036: Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area

Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Václav Žďárek

20172035: Safe assets: a review

Pascal Golec and Enrico Perotti

20172034: The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps

Ioannis Grintzalis, David Lodge and Ana-Simona Manu

20172033: The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Thomas Werner

20172032: Government guarantees and financial stability

Elena Carletti, Agnese Leonello, Franklin Allen and Itay Goldstein

20172031: How robust is the result that the cost of "leaning against the wind" exceeds the benefit?

Lars Svensson

20172030: Financial transaction taxes, market composition, and liquidity

Peter Hoffmann and Jean-Edouard Colliard

20172029: Macro stress testing euro area banks' fees and commissions

Christoffer Kok, Cosimo Pancaro and Harun Mirza

20172028: A stochastic forward-looking model to assess the profitability and solvency of European insurers

Christoffer Kok, Cosimo Pancaro and Elia Berdin

20172027: Economic crises and the eligiblity for the lender of last resort: evidence from 19th century France

Clemens Jobst and Vincent Bignon

20172026: A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU

Mariarosaria Comunale

20172025: Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?

Peter Sarlin and Gregor von Schweinitz

20172024: Global inflation: the role of food, housing and energy prices

Miles Parker

20172023: Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility

Michael Ehrmann and Jonathan Talmi

20172022: The role of counterparty risk and asymmetric information in the interbank market

Giuseppe Cappelletti and Giovanni Guazzarotti

20172021: The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment

Igor Vetlov, Marien Ferdinandusse, Jasper De Jong and Josip Funda

20172020: High frequency trading and fragility

Giovanni Cespa and Xavier Vives

20172019: The impact of constrained monetary policy on fiscal multipliers on output and inflation

Tilman Bletzinger and Magdalena Lalik

20172018: Exchange rate prediction redux: new models, new data, new currencies

Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, Antonio Garcia Pascual and Yi Zhang

20172017: Inside asset purchase programs: the effects of unconventional policy on banking competition

Michael Wedow, Michael Koetter and Natalia Podlich

20172016: Interactions between fiscal multipliers and sovereign risk premium during fiscal consolidation: model based assessment for the euro area

Magdalena Lalik

20172015: Forecasting euro area inflation using targeted predictors: is money coming back?

João Sousa and Matteo Falagiarda

20172014: The drivers of revenue productivity: a new decomposition analysis with firm-level data

Filippo di Mauro, Giordano Mion and Daniel Stöhlker

20172013: Regular versus lump-sum payments in union contracts and household consumption

Roberta Zizza and Effrosyni Adamopoulou

20172012: Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model

Marco Lo Duca and Tomas Adam

20172011: Understanding sovereign rating movements in euro area countries

Beatrice Pierluigi, Jan Bruha, Ralph Setzer and Moritz Karber

20172010: The systemic implications of bail-in: a multi-layered network approach

Christoffer Kok, Grzegorz Halaj, Anne-Caroline Hüser, Cristian Perales and Anton van der Kraaij

20172009: Securitization and credit quality

Steven Ongena, Alper Kara and David Marques-Ibanez

20172008: Banks credit and productivity growth

Filippo di Mauro, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Fadi Hassan

20172007: The rational inattention filter

Filip Matejka, Mirko Wiederholt and Bartosz Maćkowiak

20172006: Demographics and inflation

Christiane Nickel, Elena Bobeica, Eliza Lis and Yiqiao Sun

20172005: Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area

Stefano Neri, Andrea Nobili and Antonio Conti

20172004: Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area

Willi Semmler and Marco Gross

20172003: Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area

Mariarosaria Comunale and Davor Kunovac

20172002: Changing prices... changing times: evidence for Italy

Silvia Fabiani and Mario Porqueddu

20172001: Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve

Ursel Baumann and Bruno Albuquerque

20172000: Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't

Marek Jarociński and Elena Bobeica