Working Paper Series

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20121499: Risk, capital buffer and bank lending: a granular approach to the adjustment of euro area banks

Laurent Maurin and Mervi Toivanen

20121498: Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages

Matteo Ciccarelli, Eva Ortega and Maria Valderrama

20121497: Bank capital and liquidity creation: Granger-causality evidence

Roman Horvath, Jakub Seidler and Laurent Weill

20121496: The ECB and the interbank market

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and Michele Lenza

20121495: Bubbles, banks and financial stability

Kalin Nikolov and Kosuke Aoki

20121494: Prior selection for vector autoregressions

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio Primiceri

20121493: An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the euro area housing market

Dieter Gerdesmeier, Barbara Roffia and Andreja Lenarčič

20121492: Bayesian analysis of recursive SVAR models with overidentifying restrictions

Andrzej Kocięcki, Michał Rubaszek and Michele Ca' Zorzi

20121491: Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified

Christian Saborowski, Mona Haddad, Jamus Lim and Cosimo Pancaro

20121490: A model of borrower reputation as intangible collateral

Kalin Nikolov

20121489: The business cycle implications of banks' maturity transformation

Pawel Zabczyk, Martin Andreasen and Marcelo Ferman

20121488: When the cat's away the mice will play: does regulation at home affect bank risk taking abroad?

Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov and Gregory Udell

20121487: Asymmetric information in credit markets, bank leverage cycles and macroeconomic dynamics

Ansgar Rannenberg

20121486: Leading indicators of crisis incidence: evidence from developed countries

Jan Babecký, Tomas Havranek, Jakub Matějů, Marek Rusnák, Katerina Smidkova and Bořek Vašíček

20121485: Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries

Katerina Smidkova, Jan Babecký, Tomas Havranek, Jakub Matějů, Marek Rusnák and Bořek Vašíček

20121484: Bank ratings: what determines their quality?

David Marques-Ibanez, Harald Hau and Sam Langfield

20121483: Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area

Roland Straub, Mathias Trabandt and Günter Coenen

20121482: Optimism bias? The elasticity puzzle in international economics revisited

Chiara Osbat and Vesna Corbo

20121481: Clearing, counterparty risk and aggregate risk

Bruno Biais, Florian Heider and Marie Hoerova

20121480: Interdependence and contagion in global asset markets

John Beirne and Jana Bricco ('Gieck')

20121479: Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks

Ine Van Robays

20121478: Dual liquidity crises under alternative monetary frameworks: a financial accounts perspective

Ulrich Bindseil and Adalbert Winkler

20121477: Central bank communication on fiscal policy

Marco Catenaro, Jean-Pierre Vidal, Guido Wolswijk and Julien Allard

20121476: Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation

Edgar Vogel, Alexander Ludwig and Axel Börsch-Supan

20121475: Information flows and disagreement

Cristian Badarinza and Marco Gross

20121474: Dissecting saving dynamics: measuring wealth, precautionary and credit effects

Jiri Slacalek, Martin Sommer and Christopher Carroll

20121473: Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies

Livia Chitu

20121472: Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximising debt targets

Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Philipp Rother and Andrew Hughes Hallett

20121471: Feedback to the ECB's monetary analysis: the Bank of Russia's experience with some key tools

Alexey Ponomarenko, Elena Vasilieva and Franziska Schobert

20121470: Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs

Stefano Corradin, Jose Fillat and Carles Vergara-Alert

20121469: Loan supply shocks and the business cycle

Alberto Musso and Luca Gambetti

20121468: Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets

Marco Lo Duca

20121467: The interplay of economic reforms and monetary policy: the case of the euro area

Francesco Drudi, Alain Durré and Francesco Mongelli

20121466: History, gravity and international finance

Arnaud Mehl, Barry Eichengreen and Livia Chitu

20121465: Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries

Antonio Afonso and Joao Jalles

20121464: An MVAR framework to capture extreme events in macro-prudential stress tests

Paolo Guarda, Abdelaziz Rouabah and John Theal

20121463: Macroeconomic implications of time-varying risk premia

Francois Gourio

20121462: A global perspective on inflation and propagation channels

Luca Gattini, Huw Pill and Ludger Schuknecht

20121461: House price responsiveness of housing investments across major European economies

Luca Gattini and Ioannis Ganoulis

20121460: Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011

Kim Abildgren

20121459: Dynamic factor models with macro, frailty and industry effects for US default counts: the credit crisis of 2008

Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas

20121458: Business cycles, monetary transmission and shocks to financial stability: empirical evidence from a new set of Danish quarterly national accounts 1948-2010

Kim Abildgren

20121457: Excessive bank risk taking and monetary policy

Itai Agur and Maria Demertzis

20121456: Bubble thy neighbor: portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls

Kristin Forbes, Marcel Fratzscher, Thomas Kostka and Roland Straub

20121455: Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over more than 40 years

Bernd Schnatz and Antonello D'Agostino

20121454: Asset pricing and housing supply in a production economy

Ivan Jaccard

20121453: Large shocks in menu cost models

Peter Karadi and Adam Reiff

20121452: Household leverage

Stefano Corradin

20121451: Financial markets and international risk sharing in emerging market economics

Martin Schmitz

20121450: Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area

Anja Baum, Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Philipp Rother

20121449: Monetary and macroprudential policies

Paolo Angelini, Stefano Neri and Fabio Panetta

20121448: Anticipation of future consumption: a monetary perspective

Peter McAdam and Joao Faria

20121447: Sometimes it helps: the evolving predictive power of spreads on GDP dynamics

Giulio Nicoletti and Raffaele Passaro

20121446: How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?

Geoff Kenny, Thomas Kostka and Federico Masera

20121445: Credit risk in general equilibrium

Jürgen Eichberger, Klaus Rheinberger and Martin Summer

20121444: The perils of aggregating foreign variables in panel data models

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Alistair Dieppe and Alexander Chudik

20121443: The structural determinants of the US competitiveness in the last decades: a "trade-revealing" analysis

Filippo di Mauro, Massimo Del Gatto, Joseph Gruber and Benjamin Mandel

20121442: Global exchange rate configurations: Do oil shocks matter?

Livio Stracca, Maurizio Michael Habib and Sascha Buetzer

20121441: Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Alistair Dieppe and Alexander Chudik

20121440: Liquidity and credit risk premia in government bond yields

Jacob Ejsing, Magdalena Grothe and Oliver Grothe

20121439: Loan prospecting

Florian Heider and Roman Inderst

20121438: Asset market participation, monetary policy rules and the great inflation

Roland Straub and Florin Bilbiie

20121437: Euro money market spreads during the 2007-? financial crisis

Nuno Cassola and Claudio Morana

20121436: Internationally correlated jumps

Kuntara Pukthuanthong and Richard Roll

20121435: Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts

Roberto De Santis

20121434: Monetary policy deliberations: committee size and voting rules

Jean-Pierre Vidal and Vincent Maurin

20121433: When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets

Arnaud Mehl, Barry Eichengreen and Livia Chitu

20121432: Macroeconomic shocks in an oil market var

Marko Melolinna

20121431: Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?

David Sondermann

20121430: The export-magnification effect of offshoring

Nico Zorell and Joern Kleinert

20121429: Fiscal policy and the 'Great Recession' in the euro area

Roland Straub, Günter Coenen and Mathias Trabandt

20121428: Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models

Marco Lombardi and Claudia Godbout

20121427: Do bank characteristics influence the effect of monetary policy on bank risk?

Leonardo Gambacorta, Yener Altunbas and David Marques-Ibanez

20121426: CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system

Manfred Kremer, Marco Lo Duca and Dániel Holló

20121425: Financial integration, specialization and systemic risk

Hans Peter Grüner, Philipp Hartmann and Falko Fecht

20121424: The pitch rather than the pit: investor inattention during FIFA world cup matches

Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen

20121423: Financial market frictions in a model of the euro area

Peter McAdam and Giovanni Lombardo

20121422: Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters

Luca Onorante and Gary Koop

20121421: Who needs credit and who gets credit in Eastern Europe?

Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov, Martin Brown and Pinar Yesin

20121420: Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model

Michał Rubaszek and Dobromił Serwa

20121419: The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal

Roberto De Santis

20121418: The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests

Marcel Fratzscher, Lucio Sarno and Gabriele Zinna

20121417: Quantifying the qualitative responses of the output purchasing managers index in the US and the Euro area

Philip Vermeulen

20121416: Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-2011 sovereign debt crisis

Marcel Fratzscher and Alexander Chudik

20121415: Capital controls and foreign exchange policy

Marcel Fratzscher

20121414: Has the Euro affected the choice of invoicing currency?

Jenny Ligthart and Sebastian E. V. Werner

20121413: Risk-sharing or risk-taking? Counterparty risk, incentives and margins

Florian Heider, Marie Hoerova and Bruno Biais

20121412: Global value chains during the great trade collapse: a bullwhip effect?

Filippo di Mauro, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Vincent Vicard, Carlo Altomonte and Armando Rungi

20111411: Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy

Kai Christoffel, Juha Kilponen and Ivan Jaccard

20111410: Profit dynamics across the largest euro area countries and sectors

Moreno Roma, Igor Vetlov and Laurent Maurin

20111409: Analysis of variance for bayesian inference

Gianni Amisano and John Geweke

20111408: Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature

Jacopo Cimadomo

20111407: Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations

Cristian Badarinza and Marco Gross

20111406: The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries

Javier Pérez, Raffaela Giordano, Domenico Depalo, Manuel Pereira, Bruno Eugène, Evangelia Papapetrou, Lukas Reiss and Mojca Roter

20111405: Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate

Corrado Macchiarelli

20111404: A VAR analysis for the uncovered interest parity and the ex-ante purchasing power parity: the role of macroeconomic and financial information

Corrado Macchiarelli

20111403: Do EU structural funds promote regional employment? Evidence from dynamic panel data models

Philipp Mohl and Tobias Hagen

20111402: Monetary policy and the flow of funds in the euro area

Riccardo Bonci

20111401: Gravity chains: estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important

Richard Baldwin and Daria Taglioni

20111400: Aggregation, the skill premium, and the two-level production function

Peter McAdam, Alpo Willman and Miguel Leon-Ledesma