Working Paper Series

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2008917: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty

Paola Donati and Francesco Donati

2008916: Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies

Roland Beck and Ebrahim Rahbari

2008915: Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area

Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman

2008914: Evolution and sources of manufacturing productivity growth: evidence from a panel of European countries

Silvia Giannangeli and Ramón Gómez-Salvador

2008913: Country and industry equity risk premia in the euro area: an intertemporal approach

Lorenzo Cappiello, Angela Maddaloni and Marco Lo Duca

2008912: Labour cost and employment across euro area countries and sectors

Beatrice Pierluigi and Moreno Roma

2008911: Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach

Michael Fidora and Thierry Bracke

2008910: How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches

Martin Scheicher

2008909: Repo markets, counterparty risk and the 2007/2008 liquidity crisis

Christian Ewerhart and Jens Tapking

2008908: 3-step analysis of public finances sustainability: the case of the European Union

Antonio Afonso and Christophe Rault

2008907: Globalisation and the euro area: simulation based analysis using the New Area Wide Model

Roland Straub and Pascal Jacquinot

2008906: The impact of the euro on equity markets: a country and sector decomposition

Lorenzo Cappiello, Simone Manganelli and Arjan Kadareja

2008905: A persistence-weighted measure of core inflation in the euro area

Livio Stracca and Laurent Bilke

2008904: Does money matter in the IS curve? The case of the UK

Barry Jones and Livio Stracca

2008903: A robust criterion for determining the number of static factors in approximate factor models

Lucia Alessi, Matteo Barigozzi and Marco Capasso

2008902: Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs

Matthias Mohr, Roland Straub and Günter Coenen

2008901: The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area

Luca Onorante, Diego J. Pedregal, Javier Pérez and Sara Signorini

2008900: Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

Fabrizio Venditti, Riccardo Cristadoro and Giuseppe Saporito

2008899: Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty

Paul Levine

2008898: Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence

Alan Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Jakob de Haan and David-Jan Jansen

2008897: DSGE-Modelling: when agents are imperfectly informed

Paul De Grauwe

2008896: The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries

Anna Lipinska

2008895: On the empirical evidence of the intertemporal current account model for the euro area countries

Michele Ca' Zorzi and Michał Rubaszek

2008894: The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models

Matthieu Darracq Paries and Laurent Maurin

2008893: Sticky wages: evidence from quarterly microeconomic data

Thomas Heckel, Hervé Le Bihan and Jérémi Montornes

2008892: Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective

Stephane Dees, Mohammad Pesaran, Vanessa Smith and Ron P. Smith

2008891: House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy

Frank Smets and Marek Jarociński

2008890: Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area

Alessandro Calza

2008889: Credit and the natural rate of interest

Fiorella De Fiore and Oreste Tristani

2008888: House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy

Charles Goodhart and Boris Hofmann

2008887: Labor supply after transition: evidence from the Czech Republic

Alena Bičáková, Jiri Slacalek and Michal Slavík

2008886: International evidence on sticky consumption growth

Christopher Carroll, Jiri Slacalek and Martin Sommer

2008885: Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area

Michiel Van Leuvensteijn, Christoffer Kok, Jacob Bikker and Adrian Rixtel

2008884: A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area

Stéphane Adjemian, Matthieu Darracq Paries and Frank Smets

2008883: Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks

Roberto De Santis and Lucio Sarno

2008882: Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches

Stephane Dees and Matthias Burgert

2008881: Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk

Gianni Amisano and Roberto Savona

2008880: On policy interactions among nations: when do cooperation and commitment matter?

Hubert Kempf and Leopold von Thadden

2008879: Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada

Ludger Schuknecht, Juergen von Hagen and Guido Wolswijk

2008878: Nominal and real interest rates during an optimal disinflation in New Keynesian models

Marcus Hagedorn

2008877: What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis

Dario Caldara and Christophe Kamps

2008876: Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?

Magnus Andersson and Antonello D'Agostino

2008875: Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area

Olli Castrén, Stephane Dees and Fadi Zaher

2008874: How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model?

Laura Coroneo, Ken Nyholm and Rositsa Vidova-Koleva

2008873: The Feldstein-Horioka fact

Domenico Giannone and Michele Lenza

2008872: Why do Europeans work part-time? A cross-country panel analysis

Hielke Buddelmeyer, Gilles Mourre and Melanie Ward-Warmedinger

2008871: The impact of capital flows on domestic investment in transition economies

Elitza Mileva

2008870: Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty

Paul Levine, Peter McAdam, Richard Pierse and Joseph Pearlman

2008869: The reserve fulfilment path of euro area commercial banks: empirical testing using panel data

Nuno Cassola

2008868: Purdah: on the rationale for central bank silence around policy meetings

Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher

2008867: Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

Boris Hofmann

2008866: VAR analysis and the Great Moderation

Luca Benati and Paolo Surico

2008865: Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Lucrezia Reichlin

2008864: Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment: crowding-in and crowding-out effects

Antonio Afonso and Miguel Aubyn

2008863: Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy

Christiane Nickel, Philipp Rother and Angeliki Theophilopoulou

2008862: Stock market volatility and learning

Klaus Adam, Albert Marcet and Juan Pablo Nicolini

2008861: Income distribution determinants and public spending efficiency

Antonio Afonso, Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi

2008860: Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model

Marcelo Sánchez

2008859: Assessing the compensation for volatility risk implicit in interest rate derivatives

Fabio Fornari

2008858: International transmission and monetary policy cooperation

Günter Coenen, Giovanni Lombardo, Frank Smets and Roland Straub

2008857: Housing and equity wealth effects of Italian households

Tuomas Peltonen and Charles Grant

2008856: Markups in the euro area and the US over the period 1981-2004: a comparison of 50 sectors

Rebekka Christopoulou and Philip Vermeulen

2008855: Assessing the factors behind oil price changes

Stephane Dees, Audrey Gasteuil, Robert Kaufmann and Michael Mann

2008854: How do firms adjust their wage bill in Belgium? A decomposition along the intensive and extensive margins

Catherine Fuss

2008853: The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revisited

Marcus Hagedorn and Iourii Manovskii

2008852: Determinants of economic growth: will data tell?

Antonio Ciccone and Marek Jarociński

2008851: Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes

Luca Benati

2008850: Statistical tests and estimators of the rank of a matrix and their applications in econometric modelling

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and George Kapetanios

2008849: Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth

Antonio Afonso and Davide Furceri

2008848: Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU

Antonio Afonso and Juan González Alegre

2007847: Deeper, wider and more competitive? Monetary integration, Eastern enlargement and competitiveness in the European Union

Gianmarco Ottaviano, Daria Taglioni and Filippo di Mauro

2007846: Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data

Matteo Ciccarelli and Carlo Altavilla

2007845: Run-prone banking and asset markets

Marie Hoerova

2007844: Business cycle synchronization and insurance mechanisms in the EU

Antonio Afonso and Davide Furceri

2007843: Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges

Teresa Leal, Javier Pérez, Mika Tujula and Jean-Pierre Vidal

2007842: Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies

Gianluigi Ferrucci and Cesar Miralles

2007841: Should we take inside money seriously?

Livio Stracca

2007840: Downward wage rigidity for different workers and firms: an evaluation for Belgium using the IWFP procedure

Catherine Fuss, Ladislav Wintr and Philip Du Caju

2007839: Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries

Maurizio Michael Habib and Margarita Manolova Kalamova

2007838: Securitisation and the bank lending channel

Yener Altunbas, Leonardo Gambacorta and David Marques-Ibanez

2007837: Monetary policy and core inflation

Michele Lenza

2007836: Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters

Andrés Manzanares and Garcí­a, Juan Angel

2007835: US shocks and global exchange rate configurations

Marcel Fratzscher

2007834: International frictions and optimal monetary policy cooperation: analytical solutions

Matthieu Darracq Paries

2007833: Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?

Michele Ca' Zorzi and Bernd Schnatz

2007832: The yield curve and macroeconomic dynamics

Peter Hördahl, Oreste Tristani and David Vestin

2007831: Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns

Gianni Amisano and John Geweke

2007830: The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality

Jacob Ejsing, Garcí­a, Juan Angel and Thomas Werner

2007829: Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective

Aaron Mehrotra, Tuomas Peltonen and Alvaro Santos Rivera

2007828: Potential output growth in several industrialised countries: a comparison

Christophe Cahn and Arthur Saint Guilhem

2007827: How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?

Sarah Lein, Carolin Nerlich and Miguel Leon-Ledesma

2007826: Risk sharing, finance and institutions in international portfolios

Marcel Fratzscher and Jean Imbs

2007825: What can probability forecasts tell us about inflation risks?

Garcí­a, Juan Angel and Andrés Manzanares

2007824: Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability

Paolo Surico and Luca Benati

2007823: Modelling Ireland’s exchange rates: from EMS to EMU

Derek Bond, Michael J. Harrison and O’Brien, Edward

2007822: Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices: the role of non-linearities and asymmetries

Matthieu Bussiere

2007821: Social value of public information: testing the limits to transparency

Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher

2007820: What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

Antonio Afonso and Christophe Rault

2007819: Proximity and linkages among coalition participants: a new voting power measure applied to the International Monetary Fund

Christian Thimann, Julien Reynaud and Lukasz Gatarek

2007818: Is time ripe for price level path stability?

Frank Smets, David Vestin and Gaspar, Ví­tor