Working Paper Series

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20151817: Wealth effects on consumption across the wealth distribution: empirical evidence

Frédérique Savignac, Luc Arrondel and Pierre Lamarche

20151816: Conservatism and liquidity traps

Sebastian Schmidt and Taisuke Nakata

20151815: Spillovers and euroscepticism

Demosthenes Ioannou, Jean-Francois Jamet and Johannes Kleibl

20151814: VAR for VaR: measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles

Simone Manganelli, Halbert White and Tae-Hwan Kim

20151813: A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow

Giovanni Ricco

20151812: The relationship between structural and cyclical features of the EU financial sector

Hanno Stremmel and Balázs Zsámboki

20151811: Capturing the financial cycle in Europe

Hanno Stremmel

20151810: Banking and currency crises: differential diagnostics for developed countries

Katerina Smidkova, Mark Joy, Marek Rusnák and Bořek Vašíček

20151809: Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS Price? Evidence from the Eurosystem

Esa Jokivuolle, Eero Tölö and Matti Virén

20151808: Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?

Alexander Jung and Makram El-Shagi

20151807: Does uncertainty affect participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

Víctor López Pérez

20151806: Will the true labor share stand up?

Peter McAdam, Jakub Mućk and Jakub Growiec

20151805: Credit market disequilibrium in Greece (2003-2011) - a Bayesian approach

Angelos Vouldis

20151804: Bank bailouts and competition - Did TARP distort competition among sound banks?

Michael Koetter and Felix Noth

20151803: The information content of money and credit for US activity

Franz Seitz, Ursel Baumann and Bruno Albuquerque

20151802: What has driven inflation dynamics in the Euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States

Marko Melolinna

20151801: The exchange rate, asymmetric shocks and asymmetric distributions

Filippo di Mauro and Calin-Vlad Demian

20151800: Unraveling the skill premium

Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman

20151799: Financial exposure to the euro area before and after the crisis: home bias and institutions at home

Maurizio Michael Habib and Vincent Floreani

20151798: Capital inflows and euro area long-term interest rates

Michael Fidora and Daniel Carvalho

20151797: Bank bias in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth

Sam Langfield and Marco Pagano

20151796: Real estate markets and macroprudential policy in Europe

Philipp Hartmann

20151795: Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules

Sebastian Schmidt

20151794: Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs

Anders Warne, Matthieu Droumaguet and Tomasz Woźniak

20151793: Collateral damage? Micro-simulation of transaction cost shocks on the value of central bank collateral

Florian Walch and Rudolf Alvise Lennkh

20151792: The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed

Diego Moccero and Jean-Yves Gnabo

20151791: Interest rates, money, and banks in an estimated euro area model

Andreas Schabert and Kai Christoffel

20151790: Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area

Michael Ziegelmeyer, Alessandro Porpiglia, Federica Teppa, Julia Le Blanc and Junyi Zhu

20151789: Exploring price and non-price determinants of trade flows in the largest euro-area countries

Claire Giordano and Francesco Zollino

20151788: Assessing European firms' exports and productivity distributions: the CompNet trade module

Emmanuel Dhyne, Antoine Berthou, Ana Cristina Soares, Matteo Bugamelli, Ana-Maria Cazacu, Tibor Lalinsky, Jaanika Meriküll, Péter Harasztosi, Calin-Vlad Demian and Filippo Oropallo

20151787: "Made in China" - How does it affect our understanding of global market shares?

Julia Wörz and Konstantins Benkovskis

20151786: Optimal supervisory architecture and financial integration in a banking union

Jean-Edouard Colliard

20151785: A measure of redenomination risk

Roberto De Santis

20151784: Policy mandates for macro-prudential and monetary policies in a new Keynesian framework

Paul Levine and Diana Lima

20151783: Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans

Marcin Kolasa, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Krzysztof Makarski

20151782: The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: a comparative analysis

Matteo Falagiarda and Wildmer Daniel Gregori

20151781: The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

Antonio Afonso, Michael Arghyrou and Alexandros Kontonikas

20151780: Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?

Peter McAdam and Dimitris Christopoulos

20151779: Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) story

Adonis Antoniades

20151778: European firm adjustment during times of economic crisis

Silvia Fabiani, Ana Lamo, Julian Messina and Tairi Rõõm

20151777: Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries

António Rua, Paulo Esteves, Karsten Staehr and Elena Bobeica

20151776: Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects

Antonello D'Agostino and Caterina Mendicino

20151775: Housing market dynamics: Any news?

Caterina Mendicino and Sandra Gomes

20151774: Does fiscal austerity affect public opinion?

Livio Stracca and Anna Kalbhenn

20151773: An automatic leading indicator, variable reduction and variable selection methods using small and large datasets: Forecasting the industrial production growth for euro area economies

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, George Kapetanios, Fotis Papailias and Martin Weale

20151772: Fragility in money marketfunds: sponsor support and regulation

Cecilia Parlatore

20151771: Governments' payment discipline: the macroeconomic impact of public payment delays and arrears

Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Alexander Klemm and Paul Viefers

20151770: The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

Massimo Giuliodori, Roel Beetsma, Jacopo Cimadomo and Oana Furtuna

20151769: Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow

Peter Sarlin and Bruce A. Ramsay

20151768: Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization

Peter Sarlin

20151767: Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?

Frank Smets and Robert Beyer

20151766: Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises

Willem Schudel

20151765: Endogenous labor share cycles: theory and evidence

Peter McAdam, Jakub Mućk and Jakub Growiec

20151764: Assessing European competitiveness: the new CompNet microbased database

Filippo di Mauro and Paloma Lopez-Garcia

20151763: Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the new Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?

Víctor López Pérez

20151762: Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession

Dimitris Georgarakos, Dimitris Christelis and Tullio Jappelli

20151761: Global value chains: a view from the euro area

João Amador, Robert Stehrer and Rita Cappariello

20151760: Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe

Grégory de Walque, Massimiliano Pisani, Juha Kilponen, Carlos Thomas, Tibor Hlédik, Samuel Hurtado, Josef Hollmayr, Vesna Corbo, Sebastian Schmidt, Brian Micallef, José Maria, Dimitris Sideris, Matija Lozej, Paulo Júlio, Dmitry Kulikov, Jakub Rysanek, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Henrik Lundvall and Matthieu Lemoine

20151759: Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis

Fiorella De Fiore and Harald Uhlig

20151758: Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries

Peter Sarlin, Patrizio Laina and Juho Nyholm

20151757: Efficiency, Inefficiency and the MENA Frontier

Peter McAdam and Dimitris Christopoulos

20141756: The coevolution of money markets and monetary policy, 1815-2008

Clemens Jobst and Stefano Ugolini

20141755: Fragmentation in the euro overnight unsecured money market

Simone Manganelli, Peter Hoffmann and Carlos Garcia-de-Andoain

20141754: New evidence on elementary index bias

Philip Vermeulen and Enikö Gábor

20141753: MRO bidding in the presence of LTROs: an empirical analysis of the pre-crisis period

Edgar Vogel

20141752: How do exporters react to changes in cost competitiveness?

Catherine Fuss, Stefaan Decramer and Jozef Konings

20141751: Competition in the Portuguese economy: estimated price-cost margins under imperfect labour markets

João Amador and Ana Cristina Soares

20141750: How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?

Peter Claeys, Jacopo Cimadomo and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

20141749: Linking distress of financial institutions to macrofinancial shocks

Filippo di Mauro, Stephane Dees, Alexander Al-Haschimi and Martina Jančoková

20141748: Enterprise productivity: a three-speed Europe

Andrea Dall'Olio, Mariana Iootty, Naoto Kanehira and Federica Saliola

20141747: Disaggregating Okun's law: decomposing the impact of the expenditure components of GDP on euro area unemployment

Robert Anderton, Ted Aranki, Boele Bonthuis and Valerie Jarvis

20141746: Financial indicators signalling correlation changes in sovereign bond markets

Roberto De Santis and Michael Stein

20141745: Model of the United States economy with learning MUSEL

Alpo Willman, Alistair Dieppe, Ursel Baumann and Alberto Gonzalez Pandiella

20141744: Retail market structure and consumer prices in the euro area

Emanuela Ciapanna and Concetta Rondinelli

20141743: Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economies

Giulio Nicoletti, Konstantin Wacker and David Lodge

20141742: Within- and cross-country price dispersion in the euro area

Fabio Rumler and Adam Reiff

20141741: Financial reputation, market interventions and debt issuance by banks: a truncated two-part model approach

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela and Santiago Carbó-Valverde

20141740: Exports and capacity constraints - a smooth transition regression model for six euro area countries

Ansgar Belke, Anne Oeking and Ralph Setzer

20141739: Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures

João Amador and Sonia Cabral

20141738: Optimal monetary policy, asset purchases, and credit market frictions

Andreas Schabert

20141737: Financial fragility of euro area households

Dawid Żochowski, Miguel Ampudia Fraile and Has van Vlokhoven

20141736: Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?

Olegs Tkacevs and Styliani Christodoulopoulou

20141735: Forecasting the Brent oil price: addressing time-variation in forecast performance

Ine Van Robays and Cristiana Manescu

20141734: Pensions and fertility: back to the roots - The introduction of Bismarck's pension scheme and the European fertility decline

Beatrice Scheubel and Robert Fenge

20141733: Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections

Domenico Giannone, Marta Banbura and Michele Lenza

20141732: One currency, one price? Euro changeover-related inflation in Estonia

Tairi Rõõm and Jaanika Meriküll

20141731: Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?

Alexander Jung and Sophia Latsos

20141730: Credit spreads and the links between the financial and real sectors in a small open economy: the case of the Czech Republic

Tomas Konecny and Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková

20141729: Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession

Sören Radde

20141728: Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises

Kirstin Hubrich and Robert Tetlow

20141727: The effects of government spending in a small open economy within a monetary union

Pascal Jacquinot, Daragh Clancy and Matija Lozej

20141726: Banks, shadow banking, and fragility

Stephan Luck and Paul Schempp

20141725: Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a model-based analysis

Pascal Jacquinot, Massimiliano Pisani and Sandra Gomes

20141724: Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: a panel VAR approach

Stephane Dees and Jochen Güntner

20141723: Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage

Carsten Detken and Lucia Alessi

20141722: How do households allocate their assets? Stylised facts from the Eurosystem household finance and consumption survey

Thomas Mathä, Frédérique Savignac, Philip Vermeulen, Tobias Schmidt, Laura Bartiloro, Pirmin Fessler, Peter Lindner, Martin Schürz, Luc Arrondel and Cristiana Rampazzi

20141721: Capital flows and macroprudential policies - A multilateral assessment of effectiveness and externalities

John Beirne and Christian Friedrich

20141720: Export dynamics and sales at home

Nicolas Berman, Antoine Berthou and Jérôme Héricourt

20141719: Intra-industry trade between CESEE countries and the EU15

Lucia Orszaghova, Willem Schudel and Ernest Dautović

20141718: The impact of housing non-cash income on the unconditional distribution of household income in Austria

Pirmin Fessler, Miriam Rehm and Lukas Tockner