Working Paper Series

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20091059: Forecasting the world economy in the short-term

Audrone Jakaitiene and Stephane Dees

20091058: National prices and wage setting in a currency union

Marcelo Sánchez

20091057: Euro area private consumption: Is there a role for housing wealth effects

Frauke Skudelny

20091056: The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices

Martin Scheicher and Ingo Fender

20091055: The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy

Eliza Lis and Christiane Nickel

20091054: Fiscal behaviour in the European Union: rules, fiscal decentralization and government indebtedness

Antonio Afonso and Sebastian Hauptmeier

20091053: Inflation dynamics with labour market matching: assessing alternative specifications

Kai Christoffel, James Costain, Grégory de Walque, Keith Kuester, Tobias Linzert, Stephen Millard and Olivier Pierrard

20091052: Bidding behaviour in the ECB's main refinancing operations during the financial crisis

Jens Eisenschmidt, Astrid Hirsch and Tobias Linzert

20091051: Are more data always better for factor analysis? Results for the euro area, the six largest euro area countries and the UK

Giovanni Caggiano, George Kapetanios and Vincent Labhard

20091050: Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area

Ricardo Sousa

20091049: Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis

Almut Balleer, Ramón Gómez-Salvador and Jarkko Turunen

20091048: Downward wage rigidity and optimal steady-state inflation

Gabriel Fagan and Julian Messina

20091047: The impact of reference norms on inflation persistence when wages are staggered

Markus Knell and Alfred Stiglbauer

20091046: Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal

Tuomas A. Peltonen and Michael Sager

20091045: The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics

Thomas Werner and Wolfgang Lemke

20091044: The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages

Kleopatra Nikolaou and Michele Modugno

20091043: Optimal monetary policy in a model of the credit channel

Fiorella De Fiore and Oreste Tristani

20091042: The determinants of public deficit volatility

Luca Agnello and Ricardo Sousa

20091041: An economic capital model integrating credit and interest rate risk in the banking book

Mathias Drehmann and Piergiorgio Alessandri

20091040: The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China

Christian Thimann and Roland Straub

20091039: 'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity

Carsten Detken and Lucia Alessi

20091038: Are 'intrinsic inflation persistence' models structural in the sense of Lucas (1976)?

Luca Benati

20091037: What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Geert Bekaert, Marie Hoerova and Martin Scheicher

20091036: Search in the product market and the real business cycle

Thomas Mathä and Olivier Pierrard

20091035: The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy

Tobias Linzert, Kai Christoffel and Keith Kuester

20091034: The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

Stephane Dees and Arthur Saint-Guilhem

20091033: Fiscal competition over taxes and public inputs - theory and evidence

Sebastian Hauptmeier, Ferdinand Mittermaier and Johannes Rincke

20091032: Assessing long-term fiscal developments - a new approach

Antonio Afonso, Davide Furceri, Luca Agnello and Ricardo Sousa

20091031: Global roles of currencies

Christian Thimann

20091030: Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets

Kirstin Hubrich and Kenneth West

20091029: The role of fiscal transfers for regional economic convergence in Europe

Christiane Nickel, Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Philipp Rother

20091028: Large debt financing: syndicated loans versus corporate bonds

Yener Altunbas, Alper Kara and David Marques-Ibanez

20091027: Long run evidence on money growth and inflation

Luca Benati

20091026: Do house price developments spill over across euro area countries? Evidence from a Global VAR

Paul Hiebert and Isabel Vansteenkiste

20091025: Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets

Jens Tapking and Jens Eisenschmidt

20091024: Funding liquidity risk: definition and measurement

Kleopatra Nikolaou and Mathias Drehmann

20091023: Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns: does bank origin matter?

Steven Ongena and Viorel Roscovan

20091022: Understanding inter-industry wage structures in the euro area

Veronique Genre, Daphne Momferatou and Karsten Kohn

20091021: Rigid labour compensation and flexible employment? Firm-level evidence with regard to productivity for Belgium

Catherine Fuss and Ladislav Wintr

20091020: Opting out of the Great Inflation: German monetary policy after the break down of Bretton Woods

Andreas Beyer, Gaspar, Ví­tor, Christina Gerberding and Otmar Issing

20091019: What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model

Paul Hiebert and Matthias Sydow

20091018: Cross-Border Mergers and acquisitions: Financial and institutional forces

Roberto De Santis, Nicolas Coeurdacier and Antonin Aviat

20091017: Optimal Prediction Pools

Gianni Amisano and John Geweke

20091016: When does lumpy factor adjustment matter for aggregate dynamics?

Stephan Fahr and Fang Yao

20091015: Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

Olga Arratibel, Nadine Leiner-Killinger and Christophe Kamps

20091014: Asset prices and current account fluctuations in G7 economies

Marcel Fratzscher and Roland Straub

20091013: Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect

Andreas Beyer, William G. Dewald and Alfred Haug

20091012: Petrodollars and imports of oil exporting countries

Annette Kamps and Roland Beck

20091011: The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves

Sandra Eickmeier and Katharina Moll

20091010: Business cycles in the euro area

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and Michele Lenza

20091009: Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention

Bartosz Maćkowiak and Mirko Wiederholt

20091008: Liquidity (risk) concepts: definitions and interactions

Kleopatra Nikolaou

20091007: Sequential bargaining in a new-Keynesian model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage negotiation

Raf Wouters, Grégory de Walque, Olivier Pierrard and Henri Sneessens

20091006: Understanding sectoral differences in downward real wage rigidity: workforce composition, institutions, technology and competition

Philip Du Caju, Catherine Fuss and Ladislav Wintr

20091005: Labor market institutions and macroeconomic volatility in a panel of OECD countries

Johann Scharler and Fabio Rumler

20091004: Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea

Marcelo Sánchez

20091003: Real wages over the business cycle: OECD evidence from the time and frequency domains

Julian Messina, Jarkko Turunen and Chiara Strozzi

20091002: Assessing portfolio credit risk changes in a sample of EU large and complex banking groups in reaction to macroeconomic shocks

Olli Castrén, Trevor Fitzpatrick and Matthias Sydow

20091001: Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change

Peter McAdam, Alpo Willman and Miguel Leon-Ledesma

20091000: Wealth effects in emerging market economies

Tuomas A. Peltonen, Ricardo Sousa and Isabel Vansteenkiste

2012232: Bubbles, banks and financial stability

Kalin Nikolov and Kosuke Aoki

2009999: Risk-adjusted forecasts of oil prices

Patrizio Pagano and Massimiliano Pisani

2009998: Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models

Alexander Chudik and Mohammad Pesaran

2009997: Financing obstacles and growth: an analysis for euro area non-financial corporations

Annalisa Ferrando, Carmen Martinez-Carrascal and Chiara Coluzzi

2009996: What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?

Matteo Ciccarelli and Garcí­a, Juan Angel

2009995: Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Alistair Dieppe and Alexander Chudik

2009994: Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area

Fabrizio Balassone, Jorge Cunha, Geert Langenus, Bernhard Manzke, Jeanne Pavot, Doris Prammer and Pietro Tommasino

2009993: Has emerging Asia decoupled? An analysis of production and trade linkages using the Asian international input-output table

Tuomas Peltonen and Gabor Pula

2009992: FDI and productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

Marcin Kolasa and Martin Bijsterbosch

2009991: The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

Antonio Afonso and Ricardo Sousa

2009990: Fiscal policy, housing and stock prices

Antonio Afonso and Ricardo Sousa

2009989: Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area

Christoffer Kok, Carlotta Rossi and David Marques-Ibanez

2008988: The interday and intraday patterns of the overnight market: evidence from an electronic platform

Alain Durré and Renaud Beaupain

2008987: Probability of informed trading on the euro overnight market rate: an update

Julien Idier and Stefano Nardelli

2008986: The topology of the federal funds market

Morten Bech and Enghin Atalay

2008985: Portuguese banks in the euro area market for daily funds

Luísa Farinha and Gaspar, Ví­tor

2008984: The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects

Daniel Thornton

2008983: What explains the spread between the euro overnight rate and the ECB's policy rate?

Tobias Linzert and Sandra Schmidt

2008982: Modelling short-term interest rate spreads in the euro money market

Nuno Cassola and Claudio Morana

2008981: Why the effective price for money exceeds the policy rate in the ECB tenders?

Tuomas Välimäki

2008980: Extracting market expectations from yield curves augmented by money market interest rates: the case of Japan

Teppei Nagano and Naohiko Baba

2008979: Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts

Giuseppe Ferrero and Andrea Nobili

2008978: Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments

Michael Joyce, Jonathan Relleen and Steffen Sorensen

2008977: Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

Massimo Guidolin and Daniel Thornton

2008976: The term structure of interest rates across frequencies

Katrin Assenmacher and Stefan Gerlach

2008975: Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side

Elke Hahn and Frauke Skudelny

2008974: Institutional features of wage bargaining in 23 European countries, the US and Japan

Daphne Momferatou, Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, Erwan Gautier and Philip Du Caju

2008973: Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?

Marcel Fratzscher and Arnaud Mehl

2008972: Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area

Matthieu Darracq Paries and Alessandro Notarpietro

2008971: Interactions between private and public sector wages

Antonio Afonso and Pedro Gomes

2008970: Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison

Marek Jarociński

2008969: Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns

Gianni Amisano and John Geweke

2008968: A value at risk analysis of cedit default swaps

Martin Scheicher and Burkhard Raunig

2008967: Central Bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules

Volker Wieland and Guenter Beck

2008966: Large Bayesian VARs

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and Marta Banbura

2008965: IMF lending and geopolitics

Julien Reynaud and Julien Vauday

2008964: Do firms provide wage insurance against shocks? Evidence from Hungary

Gábor Kátay

2008963: Public and private sector wages: co-movement and causality

Ana Lamo, Ludger Schuknecht and Javier Pérez

2008962: Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations

Stéphane Adjemian and Matthieu Darracq Paries

2008961: Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic

Antonio Afonso and Christophe Rault