Working Paper Series

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20263227: Gas market shocks: tracing the effect on euro area inflation expectations

Jakob Feveile Adolfsen, Marie-Sophie Lappe, Ana-Simona Manu, Denise Rößler, Fabian Schupp and Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon

20263226: European temporary migration in a two country DSGE model

Katarzyna Budnik

20263225: Ex Machina: financial stability in the age of artificial intelligence

Kartik Anand, Agnese Leonello, Ettore Panetti and Sophia Kazinnik

20263224: Physical climate risk, credit risk and lending activity

Ugo Albertazzi, Davor Djekic and Aurea Ponte Marques

20263223: Sectoral interconnectedness in the euro area economies: insights from network analysis

Antonio Sánchez Serrano

20263222: Disciplining digital risk: evidence from cyber stress tests

Nordine Abidi, Leonardo Gambacorta, Christoffer Kok, Ixart Miquel-Flores, Leonardo Madio and Alberto Partida

20263221: Beyond borders, within societies: inequality and the global transmission of US monetary policy

Simone Arrigoni and Massimo Ferrari Minesso

20263220: Bank to non-bank lending and the reallocation of credit

Jian Li, Yiming Ma, Caterina Mendicino and Dominik Supera

20263219: Quantile selection in the gender pay gap

Egshiglen Batbayar, Christoph Breunig, Peter Haan and Boryana Ilieva

20263218: Monetary policy without an anchor

Kasper Jørgensen, Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis and Rishabh Kirpalani

20263217: Monetary policy under multiple financing constraints

Yannick Timmer, Alejandro Van der Ghote and Ander Perez-Orive

20263216: Dynamic credit constraints: theory and evidence from credit lines

Anna Rogantini Picco, Niklas Amberg, Tor Jacobson and Vincenzo Quadrini

20263215: Who owns crypto in the euro area? Drivers of crypto adoption, payment use, and its interaction with fiat cash

Alejandro Zamora-Pérez

20263214: Central clearing and the pricing of specialness in repo markets

Julian Metzler, Piotr Danisewicz, Tobias Dieler, Loriano Mancini and Francesco Mazzari

20263213: The third-country effects of trade wars

Matthieu Darracq Paries, Valentin Jouvanceau and Aurélien Eyquem

20263212: Assessing the impact of the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility on institutional quality: a Bayesian synthetic control approach

Nico Zorell and Christoph Zwick

20263211: Severe weather and financial (in)stability

Claudia Foroni, Paolo Gelain, Massimiliano Marcellino and Marco Lorusso

20263210: Synthetic, but how much risk transfer?

Alex Osberghaus and Glenn Schepens

20263209: Securities losses and the bank collateral channel of monetary transmission

Mariassunta Giannetti, Martina Jasova, Caterina Mendicino and Dominik Supera

20263208: Who to regulate? Identifying actors within DeFi’s governance

Alexandra Born, Zakaria Gati, Claudia Lambert, Mahvish Naeem and Antonella Pellicani

20263207: A quantile probability model for sectoral corporate defaults in Europe

Paul Konietschke, Julian Metzler and Aurea Ponte Marques

20263206: Digital banking and the evolving monetary policy transmission

Katarzyna Budnik

20263205: Repo market networks: dynamics under financial stress

Vanessa Schöller

20263204: Housing wealth and monetary policy transmission: cross-country evidence

Paola Di Casola and Magdalena Grothe

20263203: Heatwaves, coldwaves, floods, and droughts: the short-term impact of extreme weather events on economic activity

Malin Andersson, Niccolò Battistini and Alina Bobasu

20263202: Interlinking payment systems and trade flows

Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Laura Lebastard and Olga Triay Bagur

20263201: Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors

Kristina Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Claus Brand and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen

20263200: A robust approach to tilting: parametric relative entropy

Carlos Montes-Galdón, Joan Paredes and Elias Wolf

20263199: Stablecoins and monetary policy transmission

Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha, Lorenzo Burlon, Ramón Adalid, Roberta Fortes and Franziska Maruhn

20263198: Can satellites predict oil demand?

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Baptiste Meunier, Joao Macalos, Julia Milis and Thomas Pical

20263197: The great redistribution that wasn’t: a HANK-OLG perspective on monetary policy

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Rodolfo Dinis Rigato

20263196: Bond funds’ risk taking and monetary policy

Sofia Anyfantaki, Petros Migiakis, Filippos Petroulakis, Haris Giannakidis and Dimitris Malliaropulos

20263195: Stabilizing credit when nonperforming loans surge: the role of asset management companies

Reiner Martin, O’Brien, Edward, Udara Peiris and Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

20263194: Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy

Christian Kubitza, Dominik Damast and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

20263193: Looser, tighter, clearer: a new Financial Conditions Index for the euro area

Tilman Bletzinger, Giulia Martorana and Jakub Mistak

20263192: Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison

Matthias Burgert, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Romanos Priftis, Oke Röhe, Matthias Rottner, Edgar Silgado-Gómez, Nikolai Stähler, Luigi Durand, Mario González and Janos Varga

20263191: A least-squares filter for sequence-space models

Rodolfo Dinis Rigato

20263190: How do macroprudential measures affect mortgage lending standards? Evidence from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey

Markus Behn, Marco Lo Duca and Cristian Perales

20263189: Bayesian inference in IV regressions

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri

20263188: A structural model of capital buffer usability

Jan Hannes Lang and Dominik Menno

20263187: Margins as canaries in the coal mine

Christian Kubitza and Martin Oehmke

20263186: Fiscal monitoring with VARs

Jacopo Cimadomo, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Francesca Monti and Andrej Sokol

20263185: Why is Europe lagging behind in high tech sectors? The role of institutional and regulatory quality

Jonathan Bothner, Paloma Lopez-Garcia, Daphne Momferatou and Ralph Setzer

20263184: Climate change, catastrophes, insurance and the macroeconomy

Margherita Giuzio, Linda Rousová, Sujit Kapadia, Hradayesh Kumar, Miles Parker, Luisa Mazzotta and Dimitris Zafeiris

20263183: Fiscal seigniorage and price level determination in a currency union

Sebastian Schmidt

20263182: Money demand by non-financial corporations

Luca Nocciola

20263181: Consumer price stickiness in the euro area during an inflation surge

Erwan Gautier, Cristina Conflitti, Ludmila Fadejeva, Alex Grimaud, Valentin Jouvanceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Alari Paulus, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Roldan-Blanco, Elisabeth Wieland, Daniel Enderle and Eduardo Gutiérrez

20263180: The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!

Agostino Consolo, Claudia Foroni and Linnéa Hjelm

20263179: What drives business expectations? A tale of demand and supply

Niccolò Battistini and Pedro Neves

20263178: Do banks respond to their friends’ markets? Social spillovers in deposit pricing

Sofia Anyfantaki, Natalya Martynova and Panagiotis Avramidis

20263177: The EU’s CBAM: implications for member states and trading partners

Geoffroy Dolphin and Gianluigi Ferrucci

20263176: Environmental score and bond pricing: it better be good, it better be green

Fabio Fornari, Daniele Pianeselli and Andrea Zaghini

20263175: Understanding the inflation–output relationship across business cycle phases

Roberto A. De Santis and Dario Cardamone

20263174: Private money and public debt. U.S. Stablecoins and the global safe asset channel

Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Daniele Siena

20263173: Navigating credit dynamics: does it matter for firm-level investment? Evidence from AnaCredit

Lorena Saiz and Serkan Kocabaş

20263172: A monetary policy perspective on the euro area fiscal reaction function

Guido Wolswijk

20263171: Structural drivers of growth at risk: insights from a VAR-quantile regression approach

Giacomo Carboni, Luís Fonseca, Fabio Fornari and Leonardo Urrutia

20263170: Contingent convertible debt: what is and what should have been

Ricardo Correia and Francisco Javier Población García

20263169: Liquidity spirals

Garbrand Wiersema, Esti Kemp and J. Doyne Farmer

20263168: Climate change, bank liquidity and systemic risk

Margherita Giuzio, Bige Kahraman and Jasper Knyphausen

20263167: Risky collateral and default probability

Salvatore Perdichizzi, Alessio Reghezza, Martina Spaggiari, Kostas Koufopoulos and Danny McGowan

20263166: Joint extreme value-at-risk and expected shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter

André Lucas, Bernd Schwaab, Xin Zhang and D’Innocenzo, Enzo

20253165: Financial integration and the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area

Joao Duarte and Mariana Pires

20253164: The climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus: the pricing of environmental credit risks for European

Dominik Hirschbühl, Andrej Ceglar, Tina Emambakhsh, Carlo Pasqua, Theodor Cojoianu, Yifan Qi, Caterina Rho, Elsie Hu, Marco Petracco, Fabrizio Biganzoli, Alfred de Jager, Laura Garcia Herrero and Andrea Mandrici

20253163: Misestimating house values: consequences for household finance

Stefano Corradin, José L. Fillat and Carles Vergara-Alert

20253162: Asset prices, wealth inequality, and welfare: safe assets as a solution

Xitong Hui

20253161: Banks’ regulatory risk tolerance

Aurea Marques, Mikael Juselius and Nikola Tarashev

20253160: Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model

Claus Brand, Gavin Goy and Wolfgang Lemke

20253159: Global or regional safe assets: evidence from bond substitution patterns

Tsvetelina Nenova

20253158: Inflation narratives and expectations

Giovanni Trebbi

20253157: Monetary transmission with frequent policy events

Carlo Altavilla, Refet Gürkaynak, Luc Laeven and Thilo Kind

20253156: Inflation risk and heterogeneous trading down

Mar Domenech Palacios

20253155: Walking the talk? Green politicians and pollution patterns

Michael Koetter and Alexander Popov

20253154: Labor supply response to windfall gains

Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli, Geoff Kenny and Luigi Pistaferri

20253153: The fiscal sources of euro area inflation through the lens of the Bernanke-Blanchard model

Dennis Bonam, Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Mariana Montserrat Cerra Pacheco

20253152: Supply chain decoupling in green products: a granular input-output analysis

Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, Bernardo De Castro Martins, Baptiste Meunier, Alessandro Borin, Francesco Paolo Conteduca and Michele Mancini

20253151: Investment funds and the monetary-macroprudential policy interplay

Martin Hodula and Anisa Tiza Mimun

20253150: Monetary policy transmission to investment: evidence from a survey on enterprise finance

Annalisa Ferrando, Sara Lamboglia and Eric Offner

20253149: Joining forces: why banks syndicate credit

Steven Ongena, Alex Osberghaus and Glenn Schepens

20253148: A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3

Max Lampe and Ramón Adalid

20253147: Repo collateral reuse and liquidity windfalls

Georgios Angelis Alexiou, Sofia M. Pereira and Victor Rodrigues-Gomes

20253146: Household borrowing and monetary policy transmission: post-pandemic insights from nine European credit registers

Olivier De Jonghe, Konstantins Benkovskis, Karolis Bielskis, Diana Bonfim, Margherita Bottero, Tamás Briglevics, Martin Cesnak, Mantas Dirma, Marina Emiris, Palma Filep-Mosberger, Valentin Jouvanceau, Nicholas Kaiser, Dmitry Khametshin, Tibor Lalinsky, Viola M. Grolmusz, Laura Moretti, Artūrs Jānis Nikitins, Angelo Nunnari, Maria Rodriguez-Moreno, Elitsa Stefanova, Lajos Szabó, Karlis Vilerts and Sujiao Emma Zhao

20253145: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock

Maria Campos, Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot and José Miguel Cardoso-Costa

20253144: The protectionist gamble: How tariffs shape greenfield foreign direct investment

Isabella Moder and Tajda Spital

20253143: Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Peter McQuade, Cosimo Pancaro, Alessio Reghezza and Pauline Avril

20253142: Developing distributional national accounts: first attempt to estimate a joint distribution for income and wealth for the euro area

Nina Blatnik, Ilja Kristian Kavonius and Luís Teles Morais

20253141: Reputation for confidence

Laura Gáti and Amy Handlan

20253140: Banking on assumptions? How banks model deposit maturities

Lara Coulier, Cosimo Pancaro, Livia Pancotto and Alessio Reghezza

20253139: Fiscal announcements and households’ beliefs: evidence from the euro area

José-Elías Gallegos, Esteban Garcia-Miralles, Iván Kataryniuk and Susana Parraga Rodriguez

20253138: Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach

Luca Fosso

20253137: Inflation and monetary policy in medium-sized New Keynesian DSGE models

Günter Coenen, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto, Annukka Ristiniemi, Frank Smets, Anders Warne and Raf Wouters

20253136: Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: a European perspective

Esteban Garcia-Miralles, Maximilian Freier, Sara Riscado, Baiba Brusbārde, Marion Cochard, David Cornille, Emanuele Dicarlo, Mar Delgado-Téllez, Ludmila Fadejeva, Maria Flevotomou, Florian Henne, Tara McIndoe-Calder, Myroslav Pidkuyko, Mojca Roter, Frédérique Savignac, Andreja Strojan Kastelec, Chrysa Leventi, Alberto Mazzon, Glenn Abela, Laura Boyd, Ian Debattista, Mathias Dolls, Alena Harrer-Bachleitner, Viktor Jászberényi-Király, Max Lay, Laura Lehtonen, Mauro Mastrogiacomo, Mathias Moser, Martin Nevicky, Andreas Peichl, Vaidotas Tuzikas, Nikos Ventouris and Lara Wemans

20253135: Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective

Sofia Anyfantaki, Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Georgios Papadopoulos, Carlos Madeira and Simona Malovana

20253134: A study on the interaction of capital, liquidity and bank stability

Francisco Javier Población García and Nuria Suárez

20253133: The slope of the euro area price Phillips curve: evidence from regional data

Anna Beschin, Joan Paredes, Gaetano Polichetti and Théodore Renault

20253132: How do rising temperatures affect inflation expectations?

Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, Justus Meyer and Maarten van Rooij

20253131: From Brussels to Bangkok: how investment funds transmit financial spillovers

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Katharina Cera, Georgios Georgiadis and Christoph Kaufmann

20253130: Macroprudential policy, monetary policy and non-bank financial intermediation

Margherita Giuzio, Sujit Kapadia, Christoph Kaufmann, Manuela Storz and Christian Weistroffer

20253129: Hidden weaknesses: the role of unrealized losses in monetary policy transmission

Benedikt Kagerer, Cosimo Pancaro, Alessio Reghezza and Antonio De Vito

20253128: The impact of capital requirements on bank capital

Ugo Albertazzi, Aurea Marques, Aurora Abbondanza and Giulia Leila Travaglini