Working Paper Series

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20171999: The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?

Geoff Kenny and Jonas Dovern

20171998: Inflation anchoring in the euro area

Christian Speck

20171997: Tail co-movement in inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring

Filippo Natoli and Laura Sigalotti

20171996: A new indicator of inflation expectations anchoring

Filippo Natoli and Laura Sigalotti

20171995: Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations

Matteo Ciccarelli, Juan Angel García and Carlos Montes-Galdón

20171994: Trust, but verify. De-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity

Alberto Locarno, Davide Delle Monache, Fabio Busetti and Andrea Gerali

20171993: Trade, finance or policies: what drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?

Livio Stracca and Letizia Montinari

20171992: Pricing of bonds and equity when the zero lower bound is relevant

Heinrich Kick

20171991: Below the zero lower bound: a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area

Wolfgang Lemke and Andreea Liliana Vladu

20171990: Financial inclusion: what’s it worth?

Michael Ehrmann and Miguel Ampudia Fraile

20171989: Revenue elasticities in euro area countries

Gerrit Koester and Christoph Priesmeier

20161988: Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union

Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, Marek Jarociński, Bartosz Maćkowiak and Sebastian Schmidt

20161987: Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads: the role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations

Roland Beck, Gianluigi Ferrucci, Arno Hantzsche and Matthias Rau-Goehring

20161986: A global trade model for the euro area

Chiara Osbat, Antonello D'Agostino and Michele Modugno

20161985: The risk-adjusted monetary policy rule

Sebastian Schmidt and Taisuke Nakata

20161984: Towards more resilient economies: the role of well-functioning economic structures

David Sondermann

20161983: Bank efficiency and regional growth in Europe: new evidence from micro-data

Ansgar Belke, Ralph Setzer and Ulrich Haskamp

20161982: The impact of disasters on inflation

Miles Parker

20161981: Capital and labour (mis)allocation in the euro area: some stylized facts and determinants

Elisa Gamberoni, Claire Giordano and Paloma Lopez-Garcia

20161980: US-euro area term structure spillovers, implications for central banks

Ken Nyholm

20161979: Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries

Roberto De Santis and Michael Stein

20161978: Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through

Carlo Altavilla, Fabio Canova and Matteo Ciccarelli

20161977: Home bias in bank sovereign bond purchases and the bank-sovereign nexus

Desislava Andreeva and Thomas Vlassopoulos

20161976: Gradualism and liquidity traps

Sebastian Schmidt and Taisuke Nakata

20161975: Contagion, spillover and interdependence

Roberto Rigobon

20161974: How exporters set prices: evidence from a large behavioural survey

Miles Parker

20161973: The optimal conduct of central bank asset purchases

Matthieu Darracq Paries and Michael Kühl

20161972: Forecast combination for euro area inflation: a cure in times of crisis?

Kirstin Hubrich and Frauke Skudelny

20161971: Crisis severity and the international trade network

Marianna Endresz and Frauke Skudelny

20161970: Firm responses to employment subsidies: a regression discontinuity approach to the 2012 Spanish labour market reform

Elisa Gamberoni, Katerina Gradeva and Sebastian Weber

20161969: Bank exposures and sovereign stress transmission

Carlo Altavilla, Marco Pagano and Saverio Simonelli

20161968: Carry trades and monetary conditions

Andrea Falconio

20161967: The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought

Lucia Alessi and Mark Kerssenfischer

20161966: An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area

Michele Lenza and Marek Jarociński

20161965: Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Alain Durré and Francesco Mongelli

20161964: Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks

Jacopo Cimadomo, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Ricco

20161963: Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe

Edmund Moshammer, Beatrice Pierluigi and Klaus Masuch

20161962: Multiplex interbank networks and systemic importance: an application to European data

Iñaki Aldasoro and Iván Alves

20161961: Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?

Alexander Jung

20161960: Got rejected? Real effects of not getting a loan

Tobias Berg

20161959: Interbank loans, collateral and modern monetary policy

Marcin Wolski and Michiel van de Leur

20161958: How you export matters: the disassortative structure of international trade

Andreas Joseph and Chiara Osbat

20161957: Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE

Tobias Sebastian Blattner and Michael Joyce

20161956: The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment

Johannes Breckenfelder, Fiorella De Fiore, Philippe Andrade, Peter Karadi and Oreste Tristani

20161955: Has the exchange rate pass through recently declined in the euro area?

Selin Özyurt

20161954: Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks

Björn Hilberg, Michael Grill and Norbert Metiu

20161953: Animal spirits, fundamental factors and business cycle fluctuations

Stephane Dees and Srečko Zimic

20161952: The great moderation in international capital flows: a global phenomenon?

Martin Schmitz and Peter McQuade

20161951: The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data

Carlo Altavilla and Domenico Giannone

20161950: Is corruption efficiency-enhancing? A case study of nine Central and Eastern European countries

Christine Gartner, Claire Giordano, Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Elisa Gamberoni

20161949: The stock market effects of a securities transaction tax: quasi-experimental evidence from Italy

Pietro Tommasino, Giuseppe Cappelletti and Giovanni Guazzarotti

20161948: Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors

Irena Mikolajun and David Lodge

20161947: Deciding with judgment

Simone Manganelli

20161946: Real exchange rates and international co-movement: news-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets

Kyriacos Lambrias

20161945: Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data

Tomasz Łyziak and Maritta Paloviita

20161944: Multi-layered interbank model for assessing systemic risk

Christoffer Kok and Mattia Montagna

20161943: When shadows grow longer: shadow banking with endogenous entry

Anil Ari, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Christoffer Kok and Dawid Żochowski

20161942: Policy spillovers and synergies in a monetary union

Carlos Thomas, Samuel Hurtado and Oscar Arce

20161941: The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries

Olegs Tkacevs, Styliani Christodoulopoulou and Elena Bobeica

20161940: How competitiveness shocks affect macroeconomic performance across euro area countries

Karsten Staehr and Robert Vermeulen

20161939: Impact of the asset purchase programme on euro area government bond yields using market news

Roberto De Santis

20161938: Bond risk premia, macroeconomic factors and financial crisis in the euro area

Garcí­a, Juan Angel and Sebastian E. V. Werner

20161937: The invisible hand of the government: “Moral suasion” during the European sovereign debt crisis

Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov and Neeltje Van Horen

20161936: Trade in value added: do we need new measures of competitiveness?

Maria Silgoner, Paul Ramskogler and Kirsten Lommatzsch

20161935: Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy

Tuomas Peltonen, Marco Gross and Markus Behn

20161934: The BEAR toolbox

Alistair Dieppe, Björn van Roye and Romain Legrand

20161933: News and noise in the housing market

Andrea Giovanni Gazzani

20161932: Credit market competition and liquidity crises

Elena Carletti and Agnese Leonello

20161931: Networks of value added trade

João Amador and Sonia Cabral

20161930: Credit spreads, economic activity and fragmentation

Roberto De Santis

20161929: A portfolio demand approach for broad money in the euro area

Alexander Jung

20161928: The limits of model-based regulation

Markus Behn, Rainer Haselmann and Vikrant Vig

20161927: Violating the law of one price: the role of non-conventional monetary policy

Stefano Corradin and Maria Rodriguez-Moreno

20161926: Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?

Alexander Jung

20161925: Stressed interbank markets: evidence from the European financial and sovereign debt crisis

Florian Heider, Carlos Garcia-de-Andoain, Juan Carlos Frutos de Andres and Patrick Papsdorf

20161924: Pricing sovereign credit risk of an emerging market

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Dobromił Serwa, Konrad Kostrzewa and Anna Marszal

20161923: EAGLE-FLI. A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area

Pascal Jacquinot, Massimiliano Pisani, Sandra Gomes, Nikola Bokan and Andrea Gerali

20161922: Global credit risk: world country and industry factors

Bernd Schwaab, Siem Jan Koopman and Andre Lucas

20161921: The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using external instruments

Livio Stracca, Elitza Mileva and Maurizio Michael Habib

20161920: Making sense of the EU wide stress test: a comparison with the SRISK approach

Carmelo Salleo, Timotej Homar and Heinrich Kick

20161919: Liquidity, innovation, and endogenous growth

Semyon Malamud and Francesca Zucchi

20161918: Collateral damage? On collateral, corporate financing and performance

Steven Ongena, Geraldo Cerqueiro and Kasper Roszbach

20161917: Search-based endogenous asset liquidity and the macroeconomy

Sören Radde and Wei Cui

20161916: Bank capital structure and the credit channel of central bank asset purchases

Christoffer Kok, Matthieu Darracq Paries and Grzegorz Halaj

20161915: Business, housing and credit cycles

Gerhard Rünstler and Marente Vlekke

20161914: The effect of bank shocks on firm-level and aggregate investment

João Amador and Arne Nagengast

20161913: The risky steady state and the interest rate lower bound

Sebastian Schmidt, Taisuke Nakata and Timothy Hills

20161912: Determinants of euro-denominated corporate bond spreads

Elizaveta Krylova

20161911: Leading indicator properties of corporate bond spreads, excess bond premia and lending spreads in the euro area

Elizaveta Krylova

20161910: Waking up from the American dream: on the experience of young Americans during the housing boom of the 2000s

Alexander Popov and Luc Laeven

20161909: On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?

Paulo Esteves and Elvira Prades

20161908: Unemployment risk and over-indebtedness

Philip Du Caju, Francois Rycx and Ilan Tojerow

20161907: Estimating the top tail of the wealth distribution

Philip Vermeulen

20161906: The collateral channel of open market operations

Nuno Cassola and Francois Koulischer

20161905: Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Marcin Kolasa and Michał Rubaszek

20161904: The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer

John Muellbauer, Felix Geiger and Manuel Rupprecht

20161903: Bank leverage and monetary policy's risk-taking channel: evidence from the United States

Luc Laeven, Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni and Gustavo A. Suarez

20161902: Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries

Bogdan Chiriacescu, Tibor Lalinsky, Urška Čede, Jaanika Meriküll and Péter Harasztosi

20161901: Price drift before U.S. macroeconomic news: private information about public announcements?

Georg Strasser, Alexander Kurov, Alessio Sancetta and Marketa Wolfe

20161900: Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty

Peter Sarlin and Markus Holopainen