Working Paper Series

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2002199: Time variation in the tail behaviour of bunds futures returns

Christian Upper and Thomas Werner

2002198: Extracting risk neutral probability densities by fitting implied volatility smiles: some methodological points and an application to the 3M Euribor futures option prices

Allan Bødskov Andersen and Tom Wagener

2002197: A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary policy implementation

Christian Ewerhart

2002196: Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form

Silvia Goncalves and Lutz Kilian

2002195: In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2002194: Sensitivity analysis of volatility: a new tool for risk management

Vladimiro Ceci, Simone Manganelli and Walter Vecchiato

2002193: Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline

Marí­n, José M.

2002192: Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?

Gabriel Perez Quiros and Jorge Sicilia

2002191: The fiscal costs of financial instability revisited

Felix Eschenbach and Ludger Schuknecht

2002190: Monetary policy and the zero bound to interest rates: a review

Tony Yates

2002189: Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation

Paul Hiebert, Massimo Rostagno and Javier Pérez

2002188: Should central banks really be flexible?

Hans Peter Grüner

2002187: A fiscal theory of sovereign risk

Martín Uribe

2002186: Using money market rates to assess the alternatives of fixed vs. variable rate tenders: the lesson from 1989-1998 data for Germany

Michele Manna

2002185: European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America

Ettore Dorrucci, Marcel Fratzscher, Francesco Mongelli and Stefano Firpo

2002184: Efficient pricing of large value interbank payment systems

Cornelia Holthausen and Jean Rochet

2002183: Monetary policy in a world with different financial systems

Ester Faia

2002182: The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area

Gerhard Rünstler

2002181: Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan

Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2002180: Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals

Margarida Duarte and Alexander Wolman

2002179: Optimal monetary policy with durable and non-durable goods

Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin

2002178: Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area

Pierpaolo Benigno and David López-Salido

2002177: A theory of the currency denomination of international trade

Eric Van Wincoop and Peter Backé

2002176: Macroeconomics of international price discrimination

Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Dedola

2002175: Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union

Simon Gilchrist, Jean-Olivier Hairault and Hubert Kempf

2002174: International monetary policy coordination and financial market integration

Alan Sutherland

2002173: Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules

Fiorella De Fiore and Zheng Liu

2002172: Constructing quality-adjusted price indices: a comparison of hedonic and discrete choice models

Nicole Jonker

2002171: An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area

Frank Smets and Raf Wouters

2002170: What measure of inflation should a central bank target?

N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis

2002169: Modeling model uncertainty

Alexei Onatski and Noah Williams

2002168: Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries

Roberto Perotti

2002167: Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data

Jon Faust, John Rogers, Eric Swanson and Jonathan Wright

2002166: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union

Henrik Jensen and Roel Beetsma

2002165: The industry effects of monetary policy in the euro area

Gert Peersman and Frank Smets

2002164: Euro area corporate debt securities market: first empirical evidence

Gabe de Bondt

2002163: The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area

Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny

2002162: Public debt asymmetries: the effect on taxes and spending in the European Union

Signe Krogstrup

2002161: The optimal allocation of risks under prospect theory

Livio Stracca

2002160: Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate

Carsten Detken, Jerome Henry, Frank Smets, Alistair Dieppe and Carmen Marin

2002159: Optimal public money

Cyril Monnet

2002158: Quantifying embodied technological change

Plutarchos Sakellaris and Daniel Wilson

2002157: Bidding and performance in repo auctions: evidence from ECB open market operations

Ulrich Bindseil, Kjell Nyborg and Ilya A. Strebulaev

2002156: Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

Paul Hiebert and Javier Pérez

2002155: Youth unemployment in the OECD: demographic shifts, labour market institutions, and macroeconomic shocks

Juan F Jimeno and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela

2002154: The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?

Marcel Fratzscher

2002153: Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach

Alpo Willman

2002152: Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Ana Lamo

2002151: G-7 Inflation forecasts

Fabio Canova

2002150: Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility

Jukka Vesala, Giuseppe Vulpes and Reint Gropp

2002149: The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model

Angel Estrada and Alpo Willman

2002148: The functional form of yield curves

Vincent Brousseau

2002147: Time-to-build approach in a sticky price, sticky wage optimizing monetary model

Miguel Casares

2002146: Competition and stability: what's special about banking?

Elena Carletti and Philipp Hartmann

2002145: Towards a new early warning system of financial crises

Marcel Fratzscher and Matthieu Bussiere

2002144: A failure in the measurement of inflation: results from a hedonic and matched experiment using scanner data

Saeed Heravi and Mick Silver

2002143: A nonparametric method for valuing new goods

Laura Blow and Ian Crawford

2002142: Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

Alberto Cabrero Bravo, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Astrid Hirsch and Fernando Nieto

2002141: Asset prices and fiscal balances

Felix Eschenbach and Ludger Schuknecht

2002140: Price setting and the steady-state effects of inflation

Miguel Casares

2002139: On currency crises and contagion

Marcel Fratzscher

2002138: "New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?

Francesco Mongelli

2002137: Equilibrium bidding in the Eurosystem's open market operations

Ulrich Bindseil

2002136: Retail bank interest rate pass-through: new evidence at the euro area level

Gabe de Bondt

2002135: The optimal mix of taxes on money, consumption and income

Fiorella De Fiore and Pedro Teles

2002134: The cost of private transportation in the Netherlands, 1992-1999

Ben Bode and Jan Van Dalen

2002133: Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?

Annabelle Mourougane and Moreno Roma

2002132: Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective

Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Christian Thimann and Peter Backé

2002131: Measurement bias in the HICP: what do we know, and what do we need to know?

Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela and Mark Wynne

2002130: Harmonized indexes of consumer prices: their conceptual foundations

Walter Diewert

2002129: Non-standard central bank loss functions, skewed risks, and certainty equivalence

Peter Backé and Livio Stracca

2002128: Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy

Frank Smets and Raf Wouters

2002127: Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting

Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra

2002126: Optimal contracts in a dynamic costly state verification model

Cyril Monnet and Erwan Quintin

2002125: Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades

Simone Manganelli

2002124: Monetary policy, expectations and commitment

George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja

2002123: Analysing and combining multiple credit assessments of financial institutions

Evangelos Tabakis and Anna Vinci

2002122: New technologies and productivity growth in the euro area

Focco Vijselaar and Peter Backé

2002121: Natural rate doubts

Andreas Beyer and Roger Farmer

2002120: Learning stability in economics with heterogeneous agents

Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra

2002119: Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area

Nuno Cassola and Claudio Morana

2002118: Durable goods, price indexes and quality change: an application to automobile prices in Italy, 1988-1998

Gian Maria Tomat

2002117: Hedonic house prices without characteristics: the case of new multiunit housing

Olympia Bover and Pilar Velilla

2002116: Rent indices for housing in West Germany 1985 to 1998

Johannes Hoffmann and Claudia Kurz

2002115: Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches

Athanasios Orphanides

2002114: Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand?

Anil Kashyap, Benoit Mojon, Daniele Terlizzese and Peter Backé

2002113: Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory, evidence and policy implications

Charles Bean, Jens Larsen and Kalin Nikolov

2001112: Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area

Jean-Bernard Chatelain, Andrea Generale, Ignacio Hernando, Philip Vermeulen and Ulf von Kalckreuth

2001111: Monetary transmission: empirical evidence from Luxembourg firm level data

Patrick Lünnemann and Thomas Mathä

2001110: Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms

Eugenio Gaiotti and Andrea Generale

2001109: Monetary transmission in Germany: new perspectives on financial constraints and investment spending

Ulf von Kalckreuth

2001108: Credit channel and investment behaviour in Austria: a micro-econometric approach

Maria Valderrama

2001107: The interest rate and credit channel in Belgium: an investigation with micro-level firm data

Paul Butzen, Catherine Fuss and Philip Vermeulen

2001106: Investment, the cost of capital, and monetary policy in the nineties in France: a panel data investigation

Jean-Bernard Chatelain and André Tiomo

2001105: Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area

Michael Ehrmann, Leonardo Gambacorta, Jorge Martínez Pagés, Patrick Sevestre and Andreas Worms

2001104: Is there a bank lending channel of monetary policy in Greece? Evidence from bank level data

Sophocles Brissimis, Nicos C. Kamberoglou and George T. Simigiannis

2001103: Bank-specific characteristics and monetary policy transmission: the case of Italy

Leonardo Gambacorta

2001102: The bank lending channel of monetary policy: identification and estimation using Portuguese micro bank data

Luísa Farinha and Carlos Marques

2001101: Monetary policy and bank lending in France: are there asymmetries?

Claire Loupias, Frédérique Savignac and Patrick Sevestre

2001100: Transmission of monetary policy shocks in Finland: evidence from bank level data on loans

Jukka Topi and Jouko Vilmunen