Working Paper Series

From European Central Bank
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20202417: Cross-border currency exposures: new evidence based on an enhanced and updated dataset

Agustín Bénétrix, Luciana Juvenal, Martin Schmitz and Deepali Gautam

20202416: Who’s afraid of euro area monetary tightening? CESEE shouldn’t

André Geis, Isabella Moder and Tobias Schuler

20202415: Macroprudential capital requirements with non-bank finance

Kyle P. Dempsey

20202414: Twin defaults and bank capital requirements

Caterina Mendicino, Kalin Nikolov, Juan-Rubio Ramirez, Javier Suarez and Dominik Supera

20202413: Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds

Luis Molestina Vivar, Michael Wedow and Christian Weistroffer

20202412: Stock return comovement when investors are distracted: more, and more homogeneous

Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen

20202411: Do non-performing loans matter for bank lending and the business cycle in euro area countries?

Ivan Huljak, Reiner Martin, Diego Moccero and Cosimo Pancaro

20202410: Global trade in final goods and intermediate inputs: impact of FTAs and reduced “Border Effects”

Sebastian Franco-Bedoya and Erik Frohm

20202409: Loan types and the bank lending channel

Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito

20202408: Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?

Barbara Jarmulska

20202407: Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world

Michele Ca' Zorzi, Luca Dedola, Georgios Georgiadis, Marek Jarociński, Livio Stracca and Georg Strasser

20202406: Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector

Stefan Gebauer and Falk Mazelis

20202405: Cyclical systemic risk and downside risks to bank profitability

Jan Hannes Lang and Marco Forletta

20202404: Monetary policy with judgment

Paolo Gelain and Simone Manganelli

20202403: Political referenda and investment: evidence from Scotland

Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon

20202402: Heterogeneity in corporate debt structures and the transmission of monetary policy

Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Claire Thürwächter

20202401: Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area

Michaela Elfsbacka Schmöller and Martin Spitzer

20202400: The Phillips Curve at the ECB

Fabian Eser, Peter Karadi, Philip R. Lane, Laura Moretti and Chiara Osbat

20202399: Quantitative easing and the price-liquidity trade-off

Marien Ferdinandusse, Maximilian Freier and Annukka Ristiniemi

20202398: Negative monetary policy rates and systemic banks’ risk-taking: evidence from the euro area securities register

Johannes Bubeck, Angela Maddaloni and Jose-Luis Peydro

20202397: Growth-and-risk trade-off

Luc Laeven, Gabriel Perez-Quiros and María Dolores Gadea Rivas

20202396: A framework for assessing the costs of pension reform reversals

Daniel Baksa, Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Carolin Nerlich

20202395: The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: a new database

Anil Ari, Lev Ratnovski and Sophia Chen

20202394: Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound

Taisuke Nakata, Sebastian Schmidt and Flora Budianto

20202393: Risk characteristics of covered bonds: monitoring beyond ratings

Magdalena Grothe and Jana Zeyer

20202392: Baldwin vs. Cecchini revisited: the growth impact of the European Single Market

David Sondermann and Jonne Lehtimäki

20202391: Can government intervention make firms more investment-ready? A randomized experiment in the Western Balkans

Ernest Dautović, Ana Paula Cusolito and David McKenzie

20202390: Monetary policy, investment and firm heterogeneity

Annalisa Ferrando, Philip Vermeulen and Elena Durante

20202389: Indebtedness and spending: what happens when the music stops?

Julia Le Blanc and Reamonn Lydon

20202388: International capital flows at the security level: evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme

Michael Fidora, Martin Schmitz and Katharina Bergant

20202387: Attention to the tail(s): global financial conditions and exchange rate risks

Andrej Sokol and Fernando Eguren-Martin

20202386: Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: what can we learn from durable goods?

Georgi Krustev and André Casalis

20202385: Monetary policy and regional inequality

Oliver de Groot, Sebastian Hauptmeier, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Katerina Nikalexi

20202384: The effect of possible EU diversification requirements on the risk of banks’ sovereign bond portfolios

Ben Craig, Margherita Giuzio and Sandra Paterlini

20202383: Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area

Danilo Leiva-Leon, Jaime Martinez-Martin and Eva Ortega

20202382: Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective

Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel and Andrea Papetti

20202381: Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis

Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Eyno Rots and Danilo Leiva-Leon

20202380: Financial policy in an exuberant world

Ansgar Walther

20202379: Debt rule design in theory and practice: the SGP’s debt benchmark revisited

Sebastian Hauptmeier and Christophe Kamps

20202378: Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension

Peter McAdam and Anders Warne

20202377: Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed

Ugo Albertazzi, Francesca Barbiero, David Marques-Ibanez, Alexander Popov, Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza and Thomas Vlassopoulos

20202376: Macroprudential policy measures: macroeconomic impact and interaction with monetary policy

Gabriele Cozzi, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Peter Karadi, Jenny Körner, Christoffer Kok, Falk Mazelis, Kalin Nikolov, Elena Rancoita, Alejandro Van der Ghote and Julien Weber

20202375: Trust in the central bank and inflation expectation

Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli and Maarten van Rooij

20202374: The interbank market puzzle

Franklin Allen, Giovanni Covi, Xian Gu, Oskar Kowalewski and Mattia Montagna

20202373: Simulating fire sales in a system of banks and asset managers

Susanna Calimani, Grzegorz Halaj and Dawid Żochowski

20202372: Pensions and household savings: cross-country heterogeneity in Europe

Muriel Roger, Frédérique Savignac and d’Addio, Anna

20202371: Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance?

Aidan Meyler

20202370: Estimating the optimal inflation target from trends in relative prices

Klaus Adam and Henning Weber

20202369: Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model

Davide Delle Monache, Fabrizio Venditti and Ivan Petrella

20202368: Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market

Irma Alonso Alvarez, Virginia Di Nino and Fabrizio Venditti

20202367: Lifting the banking veil: credit standards’ harmonization through lending transparency

Jung Koo Kang, Maria Loumioti and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman

20202366: Restructuring sovereign bonds: holdouts, haircuts and the effectiveness of CACs

Julian Schumacher, Christoph Trebesch and Chuck Fang

20202365: A cointegration model of money and wealth

Katrin Assenmacher and Andreas Beyer

20202364: The impact of the ECB’s targeted long-term refinancing operations on banks’ lending policies: the role of competition

Desislava Andreeva and Miguel Garcia-Posada

20202363: The long-run information effect of central bank communication

Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon and Matthew Tong

20202362: Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: a local projection approach

Roberta Colavecchio and Ieva Rubene

20202361: Firm or bank weakness? Access to finance since the European sovereign debt crisis

Giuseppe Corbisiero and Donata Faccia

20202360: Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects

Rita Cappariello, Vanessa Gunnella, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya and Gianmarco Ottaviano

20202359: Economic policy uncertainty in the euro area: an unsupervised machine learning approach

Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon, Dominik Hirschbühl, Luca Onorante and Lorena Saiz

20202358: The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models

Andrej Mijakovic, Michał Rubaszek, Michele Ca' Zorzi and Adam Cap

20202357: Wealth effect on consumption during the sovereign debt crisis: households heterogeneity in the euro area

Bertrand Garbinti, Pierre Lamarche, Frédérique Savignac and Charlélie Lecanu

20202356: Bank funding costs and solvency

Cosimo Pancaro, Dawid Żochowski and Guillaume Arnould

20202355: The fundamentals of safe assets

Maurizio Michael Habib, Livio Stracca and Fabrizio Venditti

20202354: A Phillips curve for the euro area

Laurence Ball and Sandeep Mazumder

20202353: Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: dynamic effects of U.S. macroprudential policies

Katarzyna Budnik and Gerhard Rünstler

20202352: Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment

Günter Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón and Frank Smets

20202351: Tiered CBDC and the financial system

Ulrich Bindseil

20202350: Unconventional monetary policy and funding liquidity risk

Adrien d'Avernas, Quentin Vandeweyer and Matthieu Darracq Paries

20202349: Banking supervision, monetary policy and risk-taking: big data evidence from 15 credit registers

Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha, Jose-Luis Peydro and Frank Smets

20192348: A new approach to Early Warning Systems for small European banks

Michael Bräuning, Despo Malikkidou, Giorgio Scricco and Stefano Scalone

20192347: Measuring the procyclicality of impairment accounting regimes: a comparison between IFRS 9 and US GAAP

Alejandro Buesa, Francisco Javier Población García and Javier Tarancón

20192346: A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20

Massimo Rostagno, Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto, Arthur Saint Guilhem and Jonathan Yiangou

20192345: Exploring Okun’s law asymmetry: an endogenous threshold LSTR approach

Dimitris Christopoulos, Peter McAdam and Elias Tzavalis

20192344: Fiscal activism in the euro area and in other advanced economies: new evidence

Maria Grazia Attinasi, Alessandra Anna Palazzo and Beatrice Pierluigi

20192343: Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries

Gabe de Bondt, Arne Gieseck, Zivile Zekaite and Pablo Herrero

20192342: Interdependencies in the euro area derivatives clearing network: a multi-layer network approach

Simonetta Rosati and Francesco Vacirca

20192341: Firms’ expectations on the availability of credit since the financial crisis

Annalisa Ferrando, Ioannis Ganoulis and Carsten Preuss

20192340: Peer effects in stock market participation: evidence from immigration

Anastasia Girshina, Thomas Mathä and Michael Ziegelmeyer

20192339: In the face of spillovers: prudential policies in emerging economies

Andra Coman and Simon Lloyd

20192338: Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks

Juan Angel García and Aubrey Poon

20192337: The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?

Beatrice Scheubel, Livio Stracca and Cédric Tille

20192336: Financial cycles, credit bubbles and stabilization policies

Tobias Schuler and Luisa Corrado

20192335: Merging structural and reduced-form models for forecasting: opening the DSGE-VAR box

Jaime Martinez-Martin, Richard Morris, Luca Onorante and Fabio Massimo Piersanti

20192334: Firm-level employment, labour market reforms, and bank distress

Ralph Setzer and Moritz Stieglitz

20192333: Consumption response to minimum wages: evidence from Chinese households

Ernest Dautović, Harald Hau and Yi Huang

20192332: Product market regulation, business churning and productivity: evidence from the European Union countries

Robert Anderton, Benedetta Di Lupidio and Barbara Jarmulska

20192331: Interconnected banks and systemically important exposures

Alan Roncoroni, Stefano Battiston, Marco D'Errico, Grzegorz Halaj and Christoffer Kok

20192330: Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression

Sulkhan Chavleishvili and Simone Manganelli

20192329: Unconventional monetary policy and corporate bond issuance

Roberto De Santis and Andrea Zaghini

20192328: Accuracy and determinants of self-assessed euro area house prices

Julien Le Roux and Moreno Roma

20192327: Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through

Georgios Georgiadis, Johannes Gräb and Makram Khalil

20192326: The impact of central bank liquidity support on banks’ balance sheets

Leo de Haan, Sarah Holton and Jan Willem End

20192325: Inducing sparsity and shrinkage in time-varying parameter models

Florian Huber, Gary Koop and Luca Onorante

20192324: Hours of work polarisation?

António Dias Da Silva, Athene Laws and Filippos Petroulakis

20192323: Investment funds under stress

Eduardo Maqui, Matthias Sydow and Régis Gourdel

20192322: Fixed rate versus adjustable rate mortgages: evidence from euro area banks

Ugo Albertazzi, Steven Ongena and Fulvia Fringuellotti

20192321: Introducing dominant currency pricing in the ECB’s global macroeconomic model

Georgios Georgiadis and Saskia Mösle

20192320: Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts

Peter Hördahl and Oreste Tristani

20192319: Financial integration in Europe through the lens of composite indicators

Peter Hoffmann, Manfred Kremer and Sonia Zaharia

20192318: Finance and carbon emissions

Ralph De Haas and Alexander Popov