Working Paper Series

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2003240: Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?

Michael Ehrmann and Peter Backé

2003239: Temporary shocks and unavoidable transitions to a high-unemployment regime

Wouter J. Den Haan

2003238: The impact of monetary union on trade prices

Daria Taglioni, Robert Anderton and Richard Baldwin

2003237: Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing

Marcus Miller, Roger Stiegert and Olli Castrén

2003236: Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis

Georg Rich

2003235: Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: evidence from high frequency data

Nuno Cassola and Claudio Morana

2003234: Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

Miguel Leon-Ledesma and Peter McAdam

2003233: The natural real rate of interest in the euro area

Nicola Giammarioli and Natacha Valla

2003232: Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?

Efrem Castelnuovo

2003231: Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero

Athanasios Orphanides, Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2003230: The euro area financial system: structure, integration and policy initiatives

Philipp Hartmann, Angela Maddaloni and Simone Manganelli

2003229: How does the ECB target inflation?

Paolo Surico

2003228: Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data

Matt Klaeffling

2003227: Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment

Tommaso Monacelli

2003226: The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Lutz Kilian and Simone Manganelli

2003225: Productivity and the ('synthetic') euro-dollar exchange rate

Chiara Osbat, Bernd Schnatz and Focco Vijselaar

2003224: The rise of the yen vis-a-vis the "synthetic" euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?

Chiara Osbat, Rasmus Rüffer and Bernd Schnatz

2003223: Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge

Peter Backé

2003222: Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States

Mario Padula and Peter Backé

2003221: Estimating risk premia in money market rates

Alain Durré, Snorre Evjen and Rasmus Pilegaard

2003220: The allocation of competencies in an international union: a positive analysis

Michele Ruta

2003219: Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through

Robert Anderton

2003218: The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan

Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2003217: The role of product market regulations in the process of structural change

Julian Messina

2003216: The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment

Michele Ca' Zorzi and Roberto De Santis

2003215: Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries

Holger Gleich

2003214: On the selection of forecasting models

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2003213: Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves

Silvia Fabiani and Julian Morgan

2003212: Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements

Ernst Glatzer and Martin Scheicher

2003211: Self-control and savings

Philippe Michel and Jean-Pierre Vidal

2003210: Anticipated Ramsey reforms and the uniform taxation principle: the role of international financial markets

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

2003209: A framework for collateral risk control determination

Didier Cossin, Fernando González, Zhijiang Huang and Peter Backé

2003208: Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data

Andrew Ang and Angela Maddaloni

2003207: A comprehensive model on the euro overnight rate

Flemming Reinhardt Würtz

2003206: Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area

Dieter Gerdesmeier and Barbara Roffia

2003205: Real exchange rate in an inter-temporal n-country-model with incomplete markets

Benoît Mercereau

2003204: Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns

Lorenzo Cappiello, Robert Engle and Kevin Sheppard

2003203: Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzle

Livio Stracca and David Fielding

2003202: Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector

Alessandro Calza, João Sousa and Marta Manrique

2002201: Euro area inflation persistence

Nicoletta Batini

2002200: Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?

Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher

2002199: Time variation in the tail behaviour of bunds futures returns

Christian Upper and Thomas Werner

2002198: Extracting risk neutral probability densities by fitting implied volatility smiles: some methodological points and an application to the 3M Euribor futures option prices

Allan Bødskov Andersen and Tom Wagener

2002197: A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary policy implementation

Christian Ewerhart

2002196: Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form

Silvia Goncalves and Lutz Kilian

2002195: In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2002194: Sensitivity analysis of volatility: a new tool for risk management

Vladimiro Ceci, Simone Manganelli and Walter Vecchiato

2002193: Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline

Marí­n, José M.

2002192: Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?

Gabriel Perez Quiros and Jorge Sicilia

2002191: The fiscal costs of financial instability revisited

Felix Eschenbach and Ludger Schuknecht

2002190: Monetary policy and the zero bound to interest rates: a review

Tony Yates

2002189: Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation

Paul Hiebert, Massimo Rostagno and Javier Pérez

2002188: Should central banks really be flexible?

Hans Peter Grüner

2002187: A fiscal theory of sovereign risk

Martín Uribe

2002186: Using money market rates to assess the alternatives of fixed vs. variable rate tenders: the lesson from 1989-1998 data for Germany

Michele Manna

2002185: European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America

Ettore Dorrucci, Marcel Fratzscher, Francesco Mongelli and Stefano Firpo

2002184: Efficient pricing of large value interbank payment systems

Cornelia Holthausen and Jean Rochet

2002183: Monetary policy in a world with different financial systems

Ester Faia

2002182: The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area

Gerhard Rünstler

2002181: Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan

Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2002180: Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals

Margarida Duarte and Alexander Wolman

2002179: Optimal monetary policy with durable and non-durable goods

Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin

2002178: Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area

Pierpaolo Benigno and David López-Salido

2002177: A theory of the currency denomination of international trade

Eric Van Wincoop and Peter Backé

2002176: Macroeconomics of international price discrimination

Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Dedola

2002175: Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union

Simon Gilchrist, Jean-Olivier Hairault and Hubert Kempf

2002174: International monetary policy coordination and financial market integration

Alan Sutherland

2002173: Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules

Fiorella De Fiore and Zheng Liu

2002172: Constructing quality-adjusted price indices: a comparison of hedonic and discrete choice models

Nicole Jonker

2002171: An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area

Frank Smets and Raf Wouters

2002170: What measure of inflation should a central bank target?

N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis

2002169: Modeling model uncertainty

Alexei Onatski and Noah Williams

2002168: Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries

Roberto Perotti

2002167: Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data

Jon Faust, John Rogers, Eric Swanson and Jonathan Wright

2002166: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union

Henrik Jensen and Roel Beetsma

2002165: The industry effects of monetary policy in the euro area

Gert Peersman and Frank Smets

2002164: Euro area corporate debt securities market: first empirical evidence

Gabe de Bondt

2002163: The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area

Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny

2002162: Public debt asymmetries: the effect on taxes and spending in the European Union

Signe Krogstrup

2002161: The optimal allocation of risks under prospect theory

Livio Stracca

2002160: Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate

Carsten Detken, Jérôme Henry, Frank Smets, Alistair Dieppe and Carmen Marin

2002159: Optimal public money

Cyril Monnet

2002158: Quantifying embodied technological change

Plutarchos Sakellaris and Daniel Wilson

2002157: Bidding and performance in repo auctions: evidence from ECB open market operations

Ulrich Bindseil, Kjell Nyborg and Ilya A. Strebulaev

2002156: Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

Paul Hiebert and Javier Pérez

2002155: Youth unemployment in the OECD: demographic shifts, labour market institutions, and macroeconomic shocks

Juan F Jimeno and Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela

2002154: The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?

Marcel Fratzscher

2002153: Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach

Alpo Willman

2002152: Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Ana Lamo

2002151: G-7 Inflation forecasts

Fabio Canova

2002150: Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility

Jukka Vesala, Giuseppe Vulpes and Reint Gropp

2002149: The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model

Angel Estrada and Alpo Willman

2002148: The functional form of yield curves

Vincent Brousseau

2002147: Time-to-build approach in a sticky price, sticky wage optimizing monetary model

Miguel Casares

2002146: Competition and stability: what's special about banking?

Elena Carletti and Philipp Hartmann

2002145: Towards a new early warning system of financial crises

Marcel Fratzscher and Matthieu Bussiere

2002144: A failure in the measurement of inflation: results from a hedonic and matched experiment using scanner data

Saeed Heravi and Mick Silver

2002143: A nonparametric method for valuing new goods

Laura Blow and Ian Crawford

2002142: Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

Alberto Cabrero Bravo, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Astrid Hirsch and Fernando Nieto

2002141: Asset prices and fiscal balances

Felix Eschenbach and Ludger Schuknecht