Working Paper Series

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2003271: Indeterminacy and search theory

Nicola Giammarioli

2003270: Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve: simulation-based evidence for the euro area

Günter Coenen

2003269: Zero lower bound: is it a problem in the euro area?

Günter Coenen

2003268: The output composition puzzle: a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and U.S

Ignazio Angeloni, Anil Kashyap, Benoit Mojon and Daniele Terlizzese

2003267: Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries

Ralph Süppel

2003266: Finance and growth in the EU: new evidence from the liberalisation and harmonisation of the banking industry

Diego Romero De Ãvila

2003265: New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data

Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman

2003264: A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area

Annick Bruggeman and Marie Donnay

2003263: Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model

Matteo Ciccarelli and Alessandro Rebucci

2003262: Indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria in sequential financial markets

Paola Donati

2003261: Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review

Alessandro Calza and João Sousa

2003260: Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous

William Barnett

2003259: Implicit tax co-ordination under repeated policy interactions

Marco Catenaro and Jean-Pierre Vidal

2003258: Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area

Petra Gerlach-Kristen

2003257: Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy

Matt Klaeffling

2003256: Information acquisition and decision making in committees: a survey

Kerstin Gerling, Hans Peter Grüner, Alexandra Kiel and Elisabeth Schulte

2003255: Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?

Annick Bruggeman, Paola Donati and Anders Warne

2003254: Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?

Claus Brand, Hans-Eggert Reimers and Franz Seitz

2003253: Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001

William G. Dewald

2003252: Interpolation and backdating with a large information set

Elena Angelini, Jerome Henry and Massimiliano Marcellino

2003251: Consumption, habit persistence, imperfect information and the lifetime budget constraint

Alpo Willman

2003250: Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy

Peter Backé, Frank Smets and Günter Coenen

2003249: Trade advantages and specialisation dynamics in acceding countries

Andrea Zaghini

2003248: Exchange rates and fundamentals

Charles Engel and Kenneth West

2003247: Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?

Kirstin Hubrich

2003246: Public finances and long-term growth in Europe - evidence from a panel data analysis

Diego Romero De Ãvila and Rolf Strauch

2003245: Money and payments: a modern perspective

Cornelia Holthausen and Cyril Monnet

2003244: How does the ECB allot liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations? A look at the empirical evidence

Steen Ejerskov, Clara Martin Moss and Livio Stracca

2003243: Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation

Elke Hahn

2003242: Public sector efficiency: an international comparison

Ludger Schuknecht, Vito Tanzi and Antonio Afonso

2003241: Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?

Carsten Detken and Gaspar, Ví­tor

2003240: Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?

Michael Ehrmann and Peter Backé

2003239: Temporary shocks and unavoidable transitions to a high-unemployment regime

Wouter J. Den Haan

2003238: The impact of monetary union on trade prices

Daria Taglioni, Robert Anderton and Richard Baldwin

2003237: Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing

Marcus Miller, Roger Stiegert and Olli Castrén

2003236: Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis

Georg Rich

2003235: Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: evidence from high frequency data

Nuno Cassola and Claudio Morana

2003234: Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

Miguel Leon-Ledesma and Peter McAdam

2003233: The natural real rate of interest in the euro area

Nicola Giammarioli and Natacha Valla

2003232: Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?

Efrem Castelnuovo

2003231: Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero

Athanasios Orphanides, Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2003230: The euro area financial system: structure, integration and policy initiatives

Philipp Hartmann, Angela Maddaloni and Simone Manganelli

2003229: How does the ECB target inflation?

Paolo Surico

2003228: Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data

Matt Klaeffling

2003227: Monetary policy in a low pass-through environment

Tommaso Monacelli

2003226: The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

Lutz Kilian and Simone Manganelli

2003225: Productivity and the ('synthetic') euro-dollar exchange rate

Chiara Osbat, Bernd Schnatz and Focco Vijselaar

2003224: The rise of the yen vis-a-vis the "synthetic" euro: is it supported by economic fundamentals?

Chiara Osbat, Rasmus Rüffer and Bernd Schnatz

2003223: Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge

Peter Backé

2003222: Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States

Mario Padula and Peter Backé

2003221: Estimating risk premia in money market rates

Alain Durré, Snorre Evjen and Rasmus Pilegaard

2003220: The allocation of competencies in an international union: a positive analysis

Michele Ruta

2003219: Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through

Robert Anderton

2003218: The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan

Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2003217: The role of product market regulations in the process of structural change

Julian Messina

2003216: The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment

Michele Ca' Zorzi and Roberto De Santis

2003215: Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries

Holger Gleich

2003214: On the selection of forecasting models

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2003213: Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves

Silvia Fabiani and Julian Morgan

2003212: Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements

Ernst Glatzer and Martin Scheicher

2003211: Self-control and savings

Philippe Michel and Jean-Pierre Vidal

2003210: Anticipated Ramsey reforms and the uniform taxation principle: the role of international financial markets

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

2003209: A framework for collateral risk control determination

Didier Cossin, Fernando González, Zhijiang Huang and Peter Backé

2003208: Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data

Andrew Ang and Angela Maddaloni

2003207: A comprehensive model on the euro overnight rate

Flemming Reinhardt Würtz

2003206: Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area

Dieter Gerdesmeier and Barbara Roffia

2003205: Real exchange rate in an inter-temporal n-country-model with incomplete markets

Benoît Mercereau

2003204: Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns

Lorenzo Cappiello, Robert Engle and Kevin Sheppard

2003203: Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzle

Livio Stracca and David Fielding

2003202: Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector

Alessandro Calza, João Sousa and Marta Manrique

2002201: Euro area inflation persistence

Nicoletta Batini

2002200: Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?

Michael Ehrmann and Marcel Fratzscher

2002199: Time variation in the tail behaviour of bunds futures returns

Christian Upper and Thomas Werner

2002198: Extracting risk neutral probability densities by fitting implied volatility smiles: some methodological points and an application to the 3M Euribor futures option prices

Allan Bødskov Andersen and Tom Wagener

2002197: A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary policy implementation

Christian Ewerhart

2002196: Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form

Silvia Goncalves and Lutz Kilian

2002195: In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2002194: Sensitivity analysis of volatility: a new tool for risk management

Vladimiro Ceci, Simone Manganelli and Walter Vecchiato

2002193: Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline

Marí­n, José M.

2002192: Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?

Gabriel Perez Quiros and Jorge Sicilia

2002191: The fiscal costs of financial instability revisited

Felix Eschenbach and Ludger Schuknecht

2002190: Monetary policy and the zero bound to interest rates: a review

Tony Yates

2002189: Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation

Paul Hiebert, Massimo Rostagno and Javier Pérez

2002188: Should central banks really be flexible?

Hans Peter Grüner

2002187: A fiscal theory of sovereign risk

Martín Uribe

2002186: Using money market rates to assess the alternatives of fixed vs. variable rate tenders: the lesson from 1989-1998 data for Germany

Michele Manna

2002185: European integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America

Ettore Dorrucci, Marcel Fratzscher, Francesco Mongelli and Stefano Firpo

2002184: Efficient pricing of large value interbank payment systems

Cornelia Holthausen and Jean Rochet

2002183: Monetary policy in a world with different financial systems

Ester Faia

2002182: The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area

Gerhard Rünstler

2002181: Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan

Volker Wieland and Günter Coenen

2002180: Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals

Margarida Duarte and Alexander Wolman

2002179: Optimal monetary policy with durable and non-durable goods

Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin

2002178: Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area

Pierpaolo Benigno and David López-Salido

2002177: A theory of the currency denomination of international trade

Eric Van Wincoop and Peter Backé

2002176: Macroeconomics of international price discrimination

Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Dedola

2002175: Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union

Simon Gilchrist, Jean-Olivier Hairault and Hubert Kempf

2002174: International monetary policy coordination and financial market integration

Alan Sutherland

2002173: Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules

Fiorella De Fiore and Zheng Liu

2002172: Constructing quality-adjusted price indices: a comparison of hedonic and discrete choice models

Nicole Jonker