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Working Paper Series

From European Central Bank
60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Contact information at EDIRC.

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20202499: Contagion accounting Downloads
Iñaki Aldasoro, Anne-Caroline Hüser and Christoffer Kok
20202498: Benefits of macro-prudential policy in low interest rate environments Downloads
Alejandro Van der Ghote
20202497: How do banking groups react to macroprudential policies? Cross-border spillover effects of higher capital buffers on lending, risk-taking and internal markets Downloads
Giuseppe Cappelletti, Aurea Marques, Carmelo Salleo and Diego Vila Martín
20202496: Interest rate risk and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area Downloads
Alessio Reghezza, Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, Livia Pancotto and Philip Molyneux
20202495: Using forecast-augmented VAR evidence to dampen the forward guidance puzzle Downloads
Kai Christoffel, Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis and Carlos Montes-Galdón
20202494: Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning Downloads
Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon, Dominik Hirschbühl, Luca Onorante and Lorena Saiz
20202493: How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia Downloads
Kristian Kristiansen and Anna Kirstine Hvid
20202492: Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission Downloads
Olivier Wang
20202491: Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: what is their asset price impact? Downloads
Harun Mirza, Diego Moccero, Spyros Palligkinis and Cosimo Pancaro
20202490: Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets Downloads
Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Maria Sole Pagliari and Frederik Kurcz
20202489: Investment funds, monetary policy, and the global financial cycle Downloads
Christoph Kaufmann
20202488: Central bank digital currency in an open economy Downloads
Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Arnaud Mehl and Livio Stracca
20202487: Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy Downloads
Matthieu Darracq Paries, Christoffer Kok and Matthias Rottner
20202486: Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro area Downloads
Cristina Checherita-Westphal and João Domingues Semeano
20202485: The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter? Downloads
Elke Hahn
20202484: Spillover effects in international business cycles Downloads
Maximo Camacho, Gabriel Perez-Quiros and Matías Pacce
20202483: Money markets, central bank balance sheet and regulation Downloads
Stefano Corradin, Jens Eisenschmidt, Marie Hoerova, Tobias Linzert, Glenn Schepens and Jean-David Sigaux
20202482: Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers Downloads
Marek Jarociński
20202481: Firm-specific shocks and contagion: are banks special? Downloads
Hannah Katharina Engljähringer and Livio Stracca
20202480: The (unobservable) value of central bank’s refinancing operations Downloads
Ugo Albertazzi, Lorenzo Burlon, Nicola Pavanini and Tomas Jankauskas
20202479: The impact of G-SIB identification on bank lending: evidence from syndicated loans Downloads
Markus Behn and Alexander Schramm
20202478: Covid-19 and rural landscape: the case of Italy Downloads
Simone Manganelli, Francesco Piras and Mauro Agnoletti
20202477: Green asset pricing Downloads
Ghassane Benmir, Ivan Jaccard and Gauthier Vermandel
20202476: The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis Downloads
Fabian Schupp
20202475: Financial drivers of the euro area business cycle: a DSGE-based approach Downloads
Dominik Hirschbühl, Georgi Krustev and Grigor Stoevsky
20202474: Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership: does it pay to paint your walls? Downloads
Peter Lindner, Thomas Mathä, Michael Ziegelmeyer and Giuseppe Pulina
20202473: Sectoral output effects of monetary policy: do sticky prices matter? Downloads
Lukas Henkel
20202472: Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time Downloads
Fabrizio Venditti and Giovanni Veronese
20202471: Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation? Downloads
Marta Banbura and Elena Bobeica
20202470: Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth at risk Downloads
Andrea Falconio and Simone Manganelli
20202469: Banking euro area stress test model Downloads
Katarzyna Budnik, Mirco Balatti, Ivan Dimitrov, Johannes Groß, Michael Kleemann, Tomas Reichenbachas, Francesco Sanna, Andrei Sarychev, Nadežda Siņenko and Matjaž Volk
20202468: Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: lessons from the financial crisis Downloads
Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino and Dalibor Stevanovic
20202467: The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment Downloads
Dominic Quint and Fabrizio Venditti
20202466: Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu Downloads
Roberto De Santis and Wouter Van der Veken
20202465: The great lockdown: pandemic response policies and bank lending conditions Downloads
Carlo Altavilla, Francesca Barbiero, Miguel Boucinha and Lorenzo Burlon
20202464: The role of IMF conditionality for central bank independence Downloads
Matthias Rau-Goehring, Bernhard Reinsberg and Andreas Kern
20202463: Bank reserves and broad money in the global financial crisis: a quantitative evaluation Downloads
Jagjit Chadha, Luisa Corrado, Jack Meaning and Tobias Schuler
20202462: The effect of macroprudential policies on credit developments in Europe 1995-2017 Downloads
Katarzyna Budnik
20202461: How to estimate a VAR after March 2020 Downloads
Michele Lenza and Giorgio Primiceri
20202460: Convex supply curves Downloads
Christoph Boehm and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
20202459: The international dimension of an incomplete EMU Downloads
Demosthenes Ioannou, Livio Stracca and Maria Sole Pagliari
20202458: Vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Measuring the financial conditions Downloads
Juan Figueres and Marek Jarociński
20202457: Culture and portfolios: trust, precautionary savings and home ownership Downloads
Johannes Fleck and Adrian Monninger
20202456: Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade Downloads
Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Tra Nguyen
20202455: A decomposition of structural revenue developments for euro area member states Downloads
Richard Morris and Lukas Reiss
20202454: Macroprudential policy and the role of institutional investors in housing markets Downloads
Manuel A. Muñoz
20202453: Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions Downloads
Jacopo Cimadomo, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Francesca Monti and Andrej Sokol
20202452: Risk and return in international corporate bond markets Downloads
Geert Bekaert and Roberto De Santis
20202451: The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability Downloads
Simone Arrigoni, Alina Bobasu and Fabrizio Venditti
20202450: Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models Downloads
Pablo Burriel, Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Pascal Jacquinot, Nikolai Stähler and Matthias Schön
20202449: Has regulatory capital made banks safer? Skin in the game vs moral hazard Downloads
Ernest Dautović
20202448: Inflation volatility in small and large advanced open economies Downloads
Mirco Balatti
20202447: The tipping point: interest rates and financial stability Downloads
Davide Porcellacchia
20202446: Firms’ expectations on access to finance at the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic Downloads
Annalisa Ferrando and Ioannis Ganoulis
20202445: Determinants of the credit cycle: a flow analysis of the extensive margin Downloads
Vincenzo Cuciniello and Nicola di Iasio
20202444: Monetary policy and intangible investment Downloads
Robin Döttling and Lev Ratnovski
20202443: Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB Downloads
Philippine Cour-Thimann and Alexander Jung
20202442: Central banks in parliaments: a text analysis of the parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Downloads
Nicolò Fraccaroli, Alessandro Giovannini and Jean-Francois Jamet
20202441: Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act Downloads
Christopher Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Matthew White and Edmund Crawley
20202440: Compositional effects of O-SII capital buffers and the role of monetary policy Downloads
Giuseppe Cappelletti, Alessio Reghezza, Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza and Martina Spaggiari
20202439: Who takes the ECB’s targeted funding? Downloads
Olivier Vergote and Tomohiro Sugo
20202438: Financial intermediation and technology: What’s old, what’s new? Downloads
Arnoud Boot, Peter Hoffmann, Luc Laeven and Lev Ratnovski
20202437: Drivers of European public debt management Downloads
Guido Wolswijk
20202436: Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions Downloads
Roberto De Santis and Wouter Van der Veken
20202435: What’s up with the Phillips Curve? Downloads
Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
20202434: Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market Downloads
Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej and Massimiliano Pisani
20202433: Rethinking capital regulation: the case for a dividend prudential target Downloads
Manuel A. Muñoz
20202432: Bank contagion in general equilibrium Downloads
Massimo Ferrari Minesso
20202431: ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic Downloads
Elena Angelini, Matthieu Darracq Paries, Srečko Zimic and Milan Damjanović
20202430: How much does aggregate demand travel across the Atlantic? Downloads
Ine Van Robays and Livio Stracca
20202429: Bank lending in the knowledge economy Downloads
Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, Camelia Minoiu, Lev Ratnovski and Dalida Kadyrzhanova
20202428: Macroeconomic stabilisation properties of a euro area unemployment insurance scheme Downloads
Christoph Kaufmann, Maria Grazia Attinasi and Sebastian Hauptmeier
20202427: Monetary policy, markup dispersion, and aggregate TFP Downloads
Timo Reinelt and Matthias Meier
20202426: Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning Downloads
Oliver de Groot and Falk Mazelis
20202425: The aggregate consequences of default risk: evidence from firm-level data Downloads
Timothy Besley, John van Reenen and Isabelle Roland
20202424: Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle Downloads
Kai Christoffel, Falk Mazelis, Carlos Montes-Galdón and Tobias Müller
20202423: On the inflation risks embedded in sovereign bond yields Downloads
Gonzalo Camba-Mendez
20202422: Bank capital regulation in a zero interest environment Downloads
Robin Döttling
20202421: Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area Downloads
Gerhard Rünstler and Leonie Bräuer
20202420: Identifying financial constraints Downloads
Annalisa Ferrando, Klaas Mulier, Marijn Verschelde, Laurens Cherchye and Bram De Rock
20202419: Determinants of firms’ efficiency: do innovations and finance constraints matter? The case of European SMEs Downloads
Annalisa Ferrando, Stefania P. S. Rossi and Graziella Bonanno
20202418: Fiscal multipliers with financial fragmentation risk and interactions with monetary policy Downloads
Matthieu Darracq Paries, Niki Papadopoulou and Georg Müller
20202417: Cross-border currency exposures: new evidence based on an enhanced and updated dataset Downloads
Agustín Bénétrix, Luciana Juvenal, Martin Schmitz and Deepali Gautam
20202416: Who’s afraid of euro area monetary tightening? CESEE shouldn’t Downloads
André Geis, Isabella Moder and Tobias Schuler
20202415: Macroprudential capital requirements with non-bank finance Downloads
Kyle P. Dempsey
20202414: Twin defaults and bank capital requirements Downloads
Caterina Mendicino, Kalin Nikolov, Juan-Rubio Ramirez, Javier Suarez and Dominik Supera
20202413: Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds Downloads
Luis Molestina Vivar, Michael Wedow and Christian Weistroffer
20202412: Stock return comovement when investors are distracted: more, and more homogeneous Downloads
Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen
20202411: Do non-performing loans matter for bank lending and the business cycle in euro area countries? Downloads
Ivan Huljak, Reiner Martin, Diego Moccero and Cosimo Pancaro
20202410: Global trade in final goods and intermediate inputs: impact of FTAs and reduced “Border Effects” Downloads
Sebastian Franco-Bedoya and Erik Frohm
20202409: Loan types and the bank lending channel Downloads
Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito
20202408: Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress? Downloads
Barbara Jarmulska
20202407: Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world Downloads
Michele Ca' Zorzi, Luca Dedola, Georgios Georgiadis, Marek Jarociński, Livio Stracca and Georg Strasser
20202406: Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector Downloads
Stefan Gebauer and Falk Mazelis
20202405: Cyclical systemic risk and downside risks to bank profitability Downloads
Jan Hannes Lang and Marco Forletta
20202404: Monetary policy with judgment Downloads
Paolo Gelain and Simone Manganelli
20202403: Political referenda and investment: evidence from Scotland Downloads
Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon
20202402: Heterogeneity in corporate debt structures and the transmission of monetary policy Downloads
Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Claire Thürwächter
20202401: Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area Downloads
Michaela Elfsbacka Schmöller and Martin Spitzer
20202400: The Phillips Curve at the ECB Downloads
Fabian Eser, Peter Karadi, Philip R. Lane, Laura Moretti and Chiara Osbat
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