Working Paper Series

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20212600: The time-varying evolution of inflation risks

Dimitris Korobilis, Bettina Landau, Alberto Musso and Anthoulla Phella

20212599: The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey

Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie Huber and Isabelle Salle

20212598: Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions

Annalisa Ferrando, Alexander Popov and Gregory F. Udell

20212597: Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area

Josefina Fabiani, Michael Fidora, Ralph Setzer, Andreas Westphal and Nico Zorell

20212596: Switching-track after the Great Recession

Francesca Vinci and Omar Licandro

20212595: Banks' risk-taking within a banking union

Matteo Farnè and Angelos Vouldis

20212594: Central bank communication with non-experts: a road to nowhere?

Michael Ehrmann and Alena Wabitsch

20212593: Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Reversal Rate and Risk-Taking

Florian Heider and Agnese Leonello

20212592: The macroeconomic impact of euro area labour market reforms: evidence from a narrative panel VAR

Gerhard Rünstler

20212591: Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem

Mariarosaria Comunale and Francesco Mongelli

20212590: Monetary policy, agent heterogeneity and inequality: insights from a three-agent New Keynesian model

Maria Eskelinen

20212589: Bank balance sheet constraints and bond liquidity

Johannes Breckenfelder and Victoria Ivashina

20212588: Monetary and fiscal complementarity in the Covid-19 pandemic

Jagjit Chadha, Luisa Corrado, Jack Meaning and Tobias Schuler

20212587: Asymmetric monetary policy rules for the euro area and the US

Junior Maih, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto and Annukka Ristiniemi

20212586: The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany

Thorsten Klug, Eric Mayer and Tobias Schuler

20212584: Fifty shades of QE: comparing findings of central bankers and academics

Martina Jančoková, Lubos Pastor, Brian Fabo and Elisabeth Kempf

20212583: The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States

Elena Bobeica, Matteo Ciccarelli and Isabel Vansteenkiste

20212582: ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty

Cecilia Melo Fernandes

20212581: Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds

Matthias Sydow, Aurore Schilte, Giovanni Covi, Marija Deipenbrock, Leonardo Del Vecchio, Paweł Fiedor, Gabor Fukker, Max Gehrend, Régis Gourdel, Alberto Grassi, Björn Hilberg, Michiel Kaijser, Georgios Kaoudis, Luca Mingarelli, Mattia Montagna, Thibaut Piquard, Dilyara Salakhova and Natalia Tente

20212580: Dominant currencies and the export supply channel

Erik Frohm

20212579: Corporate loans, banks’ internal risk estimates and central bank collateral: evidence from the euro area

Alessandro Calza, Julius-Benjamin Hey, Alessandro Parrini and Stephan Sauer

20212578: A unified framework for CBDC design: remuneration, collateral haircuts and quantity constraints

Katrin Assenmacher, Aleksander Berentsen, Claus Brand and Nora Lamersdorf

20212577: Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data

Igor Custodio Joao, Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20212576: Labour shortages and wage growth

Erik Frohm

20212575: The case for a positive euro area inflation target: evidence from France, Germany and Italy

Klaus Adam, Erwan Gautier, Sergio Santoro and Henning Weber

20212574: Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?

Georgios Georgiadis, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Cédric Tille

20212573: Monetary policy, neutrality and the environment

Joao Ricardo Faria, Peter McAdam and Bruno Viscolani

20212572: Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment

Günter Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón and Sebastian Schmidt

20212571: Labor adjustment and productivity in the OECD

Maarten Dossche, Andrea Giovanni Gazzani and Vivien Lewis

20212570: Rational inattention: a review

Bartosz Maćkowiak, Filip Matejka and Mirko Wiederholt

20212569: Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions: evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Michael Ehrmann, Robin Tietz and Bauke Visser

20212568: No country is an island: international cooperation and climate change

Maria Sole Pagliari and Massimo Ferrari Minesso

20212567: Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey

Oana-Maria Georgescu and Diego Vila Martín

20212566: Measuring price selection in microdata: it’s not there

Peter Karadi, Raphael Schoenle and Jesse Wursten

20212565: The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy

Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Robert Engle, Stephan Fahr, Manfred Kremer, Simone Manganelli and Bernd Schwaab

20212564: Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies

Massimo Rostagno, Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto and Arthur Saint Guilhem

20212563: The Covid pandemic in the market: infected, immune and cured bonds

Andrea Zaghini

20212562: Point targets, tolerance bands, or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations

Michael Ehrmann

20212561: Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic

Stefano Corradin, Niklas Grimm and Bernd Schwaab

20212560: What drives euro area financial market developments? The role of US spillovers and global risk

Lennart Brandt, Arthur Saint Guilhem, Maximilian Schröder and Ine Van Robays

20212559: On the effectiveness of macroprudential policy

Miguel Ampudia, Marco Lo Duca, Mátyás Farkas, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Mara Pirovano, Gerhard Rünstler and Eugen Tereanu

20212558: The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models

Elena Bobeica and Benny Hartwig

20212557: The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending

Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny and Michael Weber

20212556: A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy

Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Stephan Fahr, Manfred Kremer, Simone Manganelli and Bernd Schwaab

20212555: A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)

Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto and Annukka Ristiniemi

20212554: On the optimal control of interbank contagion in the euro area banking system

Gabor Fukker and Christoffer Kok

20212553: Lending relationships in loan renegotiation: evidence from corporate loans

Melina Papoutsi

20212552: Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s public sector purchase programme

Katharina Plessen-Mátyás, Christoph Kaufmann and Julian von Landesberger

20212551: The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test

Christoffer Kok, Carola Müller, Steven Ongena and Cosimo Pancaro

20212550: Do banks fuel climate change?

Alessio Reghezza, Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza and Martina Spaggiari

20212549: Banks and negative interest rates

Florian Heider, Farzad Saidi and Glenn Schepens

20212548: Investing in crises

Matthew Baron, Luc Laeven, Julien Penasse and Yevhenii Usenko

20212547: Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?

Alexander Jung and Patrick Kühl

20212546: Globalisation and the efficiency-equity trade-off

Roland Beck, Virginia Di Nino and Livio Stracca

20212545: Market failures in market-based finance

Giovanni di Iasio and Dominika Kryczka

20212544: Financial reforms and innovation: a micro-macro perspective

Spyridon Boikos, Ioannis Bournakis, Dimitris Christopoulos and Peter McAdam

20212543: Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?

Marta Banbura, Federica Brenna, Joan Paredes and Francesco Ravazzolo

20212542: Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio Primiceri

20212541: Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area

Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti and Martino Ricci

20212540: Foreign banks and the doom loop

Ugo Albertazzi, Jacopo Cimadomo and Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli

20212539: Leveraged property cycles

Ivan Jaccard

20212538: Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy

Fernando Eguren-Martin, O’Neill, Cian, Andrej Sokol and Lukas von dem Berge

20212537: The interplay between green policy, electricity prices, financial constraints and jobs: firm-level evidence

Gert Bijnens, John Hutchinson, Jozef Konings and Arthur Saint Guilhem

20212536: International medium-term business cycles

Dominik Hirschbühl and Martin Spitzer

20212535: Euro area equity risk premia and monetary policy: a longer-term perspective

Daniel Kapp and Kristian Kristiansen

20212534: The identification of dominant macroeconomic drivers: coping with confounding shocks

Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

20212533: Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies

Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

20212532: Networking the yield curve: implications for monetary policy

Tatjana Dalhaus, Julia Schaumburg and Tatevik Sekhposyan

20212531: Forbearance vs foreclosure in a general equilibrium model

Bianca Barbaro and Patrizio Tirelli

20212530: ECB-Global 2.0: a global macroeconomic model with dominant-currency pricing, tariffs and trade diversion

Georgios Georgiadis, Sebastian Hildebrand, Martino Ricci, Ben Schumann and Björn van Roye

20212529: Inventory management, dealers’ connections, and prices in OTC markets

Jean-Edouard Colliard, Thierry Foucault and Peter Hoffmann

20212528: Regional economic impact of Covid-19: the role of sectoral structure and trade linkages

Philipp Meinen, Roberta Serafini and Ottavia Papagalli

20212527: On the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies

Alberto Martin, Caterina Mendicino and Alejandro Van der Ghote

20212526: Shifts in the portfolio holdings of euro area investors in the midst of COVID-19: looking-through investment funds

Daniel Carvalho and Martin Schmitz

20212525: Stress-testing net trading income: the case of European banks

Carla Giglio, Frances Shaw, Nicolas Syrichas and Giuseppe Cappelletti

20212524: Modeling extreme events: time-varying extreme tail shape

Bernd Schwaab, Xin Zhang and Andre Lucas

20212523: A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach

Mate Toth

20212522: Homeownership and portfolio choice over the generations

Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

20212521: Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy

Martina Jasova, Caterina Mendicino and Dominik Supera

20212520: Issuance and valuation of corporate bonds with quantitative easing

Stefano Pegoraro and Mattia Montagna

20212519: Limited liability, strategic default and bargaining power

Mirco Balatti and Carolina López-Quiles

20212518: Transforming ‘sympathetic interlocutors’ into veto players

Bernhard Reinsberg, Andreas Kern and Matthias Rau-Goehring

20212517: LSIs’ exposures to climate change related risks: an approach to assess physical risks

Maria Sole Pagliari

20212516: Text-based recession probabilities

Helena Le Mezo and Massimo Ferrari Minesso

20212515: The implications of liquidity regulation for monetary policy implementation and the central bank balance sheet size: an empirical analysis of the euro area

Danielle Kedan and Alexia Ventula Veghazy

20212514: Risk aversion and bank loan pricing

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Francesco Mongelli

20212513: Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks

Povilas Lastauskas and Anh Nguyen

20212512: Statistical decision functions with judgment

Simone Manganelli

20212511: Do bank insiders impede equity issuances?

Martin Goetz, Luc Laeven and Ross Levine

20212510: Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs

Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Luca Onorante, Michael Pfarrhofer and Josef Schreiner

20202509: Losers amongst the losers: the welfare effects of the Great Recession across cohorts

Alessandro Ferrari

20202508: Bank credit and market-based finance for corporations: the effects of minibond issuances

Steven Ongena, Sara Pinoli, Paola Rossi and Alessandro Scopelliti

20202507: The Covid-19 crisis and consumption: survey evidence from six EU countries

Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli and Geoff Kenny

20202506: What value added in the trade balances of euro area financial centres?

Virginia Di Nino and Anna Ekstam

20202505: Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic

Elena Maria Diaz and Gabriel Perez Quiros

20202504: Monetary and macroprudential policy complementarities: evidence from European credit registers

Carlo Altavilla, Luc Laeven and Jose-Luis Peydro

20202503: The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: evidence for trade diversion?

Simone Cigna, Philipp Meinen, Patrick Schulte and Nils Steinhoff

20202502: On the origin of systemic risk

Mattia Montagna, Gabriele Torri and Giovanni Covi

20202501: Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area

Jakub Chalmovianský, Mario Porqueddu and Andrej Sokol

20202500: Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy

Alessandro Ferrari and Valerio Nispi Landi