Working Paper Series

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20212540: Foreign banks and the doom loop

Ugo Albertazzi, Jacopo Cimadomo and Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli

20212539: Leveraged property cycles

Ivan Jaccard

20212538: Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy

Fernando Eguren-Martin, O’Neill, Cian, Andrej Sokol and Lukas von dem Berge

20212537: The interplay between green policy, electricity prices, financial constraints and jobs: firm-level evidence

Gert Bijnens, John Hutchinson, Jozef Konings and Arthur Saint Guilhem

20212536: International medium-term business cycles

Dominik Hirschbühl and Martin Spitzer

20212535: Euro area equity risk premia and monetary policy: a longer-term perspective

Daniel Kapp and Kristian Kristiansen

20212534: The identification of dominant macroeconomic drivers: coping with confounding shocks

Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

20212533: Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies

Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

20212532: Networking the yield curve: implications for monetary policy

Tatjana Dalhaus, Julia Schaumburg and Tatevik Sekhposyan

20212531: Forbearance vs foreclosure in a general equilibrium model

Bianca Barbaro and Patrizio Tirelli

20212530: ECB-Global 2.0: a global macroeconomic model with dominant-currency pricing, tariffs and trade diversion

Georgios Georgiadis, Sebastian Hildebrand, Martino Ricci, Ben Schumann and Björn van Roye

20212529: Inventory management, dealers’ connections, and prices in OTC markets

Jean-Edouard Colliard, Thierry Foucault and Peter Hoffmann

20212528: Regional economic impact of Covid-19: the role of sectoral structure and trade linkages

Philipp Meinen, Roberta Serafini and Ottavia Papagalli

20212527: On the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies

Alberto Martin, Caterina Mendicino and Alejandro Van der Ghote

20212526: Shifts in the portfolio holdings of euro area investors in the midst of COVID-19: looking-through investment funds

Daniel Carvalho and Martin Schmitz

20212525: Stress-testing net trading income: the case of European banks

Carla Giglio, Frances Shaw, Nicolas Syrichas and Giuseppe Cappelletti

20212524: Modeling extreme events: time-varying extreme tail shape

Bernd Schwaab, Xin Zhang and Andre Lucas

20212523: A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach

Mate Toth

20212522: Homeownership and portfolio choice over the generations

Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

20212521: Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy

Martina Jasova, Caterina Mendicino and Dominik Supera

20212520: Issuance and valuation of corporate bonds with quantitative easing

Stefano Pegoraro and Mattia Montagna

20212519: Limited liability, strategic default and bargaining power

Mirco Balatti and Carolina López-Quiles

20212518: Transforming ‘sympathetic interlocutors’ into veto players

Bernhard Reinsberg, Andreas Kern and Matthias Rau-Goehring

20212517: LSIs’ exposures to climate change related risks: an approach to assess physical risks

Maria Sole Pagliari

20212516: Text-based recession probabilities

Helena Le Mezo and Massimo Ferrari Minesso

20212515: The implications of liquidity regulation for monetary policy implementation and the central bank balance sheet size: an empirical analysis of the euro area

Danielle Kedan and Alexia Ventula Veghazy

20212514: Risk aversion and bank loan pricing

Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Francesco Mongelli

20212513: Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks

Povilas Lastauskas and Anh Nguyen

20212512: Statistical decision functions with judgment

Simone Manganelli

20212511: Do bank insiders impede equity issuances?

Martin Goetz, Luc Laeven and Ross Levine

20212510: Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs

Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Luca Onorante, Michael Pfarrhofer and Josef Schreiner

20202509: Losers amongst the losers: the welfare effects of the Great Recession across cohorts

Alessandro Ferrari

20202508: Bank credit and market-based finance for corporations: the effects of minibond issuances

Steven Ongena, Sara Pinoli, Paola Rossi and Alessandro Scopelliti

20202507: The Covid-19 crisis and consumption: survey evidence from six EU countries

Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli and Geoff Kenny

20202506: What value added in the trade balances of euro area financial centres?

Virginia Di Nino and Anna Ekstam

20202505: Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic

Elena Maria Diaz and Gabriel Perez Quiros

20202504: Monetary and macroprudential policy complementarities: evidence from European credit registers

Carlo Altavilla, Luc Laeven and Jose-Luis Peydro

20202503: The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: evidence for trade diversion?

Simone Cigna, Philipp Meinen, Patrick Schulte and Nils Steinhoff

20202502: On the origin of systemic risk

Mattia Montagna, Gabriele Torri and Giovanni Covi

20202501: Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area

Jakub Chalmovianský, Mario Porqueddu and Andrej Sokol

20202500: Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy

Alessandro Ferrari and Valerio Nispi Landi

20202499: Contagion accounting

Iñaki Aldasoro, Anne-Caroline Hüser and Christoffer Kok

20202498: Benefits of macro-prudential policy in low interest rate environments

Alejandro Van der Ghote

20202497: How do banking groups react to macroprudential policies? Cross-border spillover effects of higher capital buffers on lending, risk-taking and internal markets

Giuseppe Cappelletti, Aurea Marques, Carmelo Salleo and Diego Vila Martín

20202496: Interest rate risk and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area

Alessio Reghezza, Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, Livia Pancotto and Philip Molyneux

20202495: Using forecast-augmented VAR evidence to dampen the forward guidance puzzle

Kai Christoffel, Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis and Carlos Montes-Galdón

20202494: Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning

Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon, Dominik Hirschbühl, Luca Onorante and Lorena Saiz

20202493: How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia

Kristian Kristiansen and Anna Kirstine Hvid

20202492: Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission

Olivier Wang

20202491: Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: what is their asset price impact?

Harun Mirza, Diego Moccero, Spyros Palligkinis and Cosimo Pancaro

20202490: Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets

Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Maria Sole Pagliari and Frederik Kurcz

20202489: Investment funds, monetary policy, and the global financial cycle

Christoph Kaufmann

20202488: Central bank digital currency in an open economy

Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Arnaud Mehl and Livio Stracca

20202487: Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy

Matthieu Darracq Paries, Christoffer Kok and Matthias Rottner

20202486: Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro area

Cristina Checherita-Westphal and João Domingues Semeano

20202485: The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?

Elke Hahn

20202484: Spillover effects in international business cycles

Maximo Camacho, Gabriel Perez-Quiros and Matías Pacce

20202483: Money markets, central bank balance sheet and regulation

Stefano Corradin, Jens Eisenschmidt, Marie Hoerova, Tobias Linzert, Glenn Schepens and Jean-David Sigaux

20202482: Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers

Marek Jarociński

20202481: Firm-specific shocks and contagion: are banks special?

Hannah Katharina Engljähringer and Livio Stracca

20202480: The (unobservable) value of central bank’s refinancing operations

Ugo Albertazzi, Lorenzo Burlon, Nicola Pavanini and Tomas Jankauskas

20202479: The impact of G-SIB identification on bank lending: evidence from syndicated loans

Markus Behn and Alexander Schramm

20202478: Covid-19 and rural landscape: the case of Italy

Simone Manganelli, Francesco Piras and Mauro Agnoletti

20202477: Green asset pricing

Ghassane Benmir, Ivan Jaccard and Gauthier Vermandel

20202476: The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis

Fabian Schupp

20202475: Financial drivers of the euro area business cycle: a DSGE-based approach

Dominik Hirschbühl, Georgi Krustev and Grigor Stoevsky

20202474: Borrowing constraints, own labour and homeownership: does it pay to paint your walls?

Peter Lindner, Thomas Mathä, Michael Ziegelmeyer and Giuseppe Pulina

20202473: Sectoral output effects of monetary policy: do sticky prices matter?

Lukas Henkel

20202472: Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time

Fabrizio Venditti and Giovanni Veronese

20202471: Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?

Marta Banbura and Elena Bobeica

20202470: Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth at risk

Andrea Falconio and Simone Manganelli

20202469: Banking euro area stress test model

Katarzyna Budnik, Mirco Balatti, Ivan Dimitrov, Johannes Groß, Michael Kleemann, Tomas Reichenbachas, Francesco Sanna, Andrei Sarychev, Nadežda Siņenko and Matjaž Volk

20202468: Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: lessons from the financial crisis

Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino and Dalibor Stevanovic

20202467: The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment

Dominic Quint and Fabrizio Venditti

20202466: Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu

Roberto De Santis and Wouter Van der Veken

20202465: The great lockdown: pandemic response policies and bank lending conditions

Carlo Altavilla, Francesca Barbiero, Miguel Boucinha and Lorenzo Burlon

20202464: The role of IMF conditionality for central bank independence

Matthias Rau-Goehring, Bernhard Reinsberg and Andreas Kern

20202463: Bank reserves and broad money in the global financial crisis: a quantitative evaluation

Jagjit Chadha, Luisa Corrado, Jack Meaning and Tobias Schuler

20202462: The effect of macroprudential policies on credit developments in Europe 1995-2017

Katarzyna Budnik

20202461: How to estimate a VAR after March 2020

Michele Lenza and Giorgio Primiceri

20202460: Convex supply curves

Christoph Boehm and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

20202459: The international dimension of an incomplete EMU

Demosthenes Ioannou, Livio Stracca and Maria Sole Pagliari

20202458: Vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Measuring the financial conditions

Juan Figueres and Marek Jarociński

20202457: Culture and portfolios: trust, precautionary savings and home ownership

Johannes Fleck and Adrian Monninger

20202456: Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade

Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Tra Nguyen

20202455: A decomposition of structural revenue developments for euro area member states

Richard Morris and Lukas Reiss

20202454: Macroprudential policy and the role of institutional investors in housing markets

Manuel A. Muñoz

20202453: Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions

Jacopo Cimadomo, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Francesca Monti and Andrej Sokol

20202452: Risk and return in international corporate bond markets

Geert Bekaert and Roberto De Santis

20202451: The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability

Simone Arrigoni, Alina Bobasu and Fabrizio Venditti

20202450: Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models

Pablo Burriel, Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Pascal Jacquinot, Nikolai Stähler and Matthias Schön

20202449: Has regulatory capital made banks safer? Skin in the game vs moral hazard

Ernest Dautović

20202448: Inflation volatility in small and large advanced open economies

Mirco Balatti

20202447: The tipping point: interest rates and financial stability

Davide Porcellacchia

20202446: Firms’ expectations on access to finance at the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic

Annalisa Ferrando and Ioannis Ganoulis

20202445: Determinants of the credit cycle: a flow analysis of the extensive margin

Vincenzo Cuciniello and Nicola di Iasio

20202444: Monetary policy and intangible investment

Robin Döttling and Lev Ratnovski

20202443: Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB

Philippine Cour-Thimann and Alexander Jung

20202442: Central banks in parliaments: a text analysis of the parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve

Nicolò Fraccaroli, Alessandro Giovannini and Jean-Francois Jamet

20202441: Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act

Christopher Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Matthew White and Edmund Crawley