Working Paper Series

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20222641: How sectoral technical progress and factor substitution shaped Japan’s structural transformation?

Ana-Simona Manu

20222640: Market-stabilization QE

Roberto Motto and Kadir Özen

20222639: The real effects of FinTech lending on SMEs: evidence from loan applications

Miguel A. Ferreira, Afonso Eça, Melissa Porras Prado and A. Emanuele Rizzo

20222638: Bank risk-taking and impaired monetary policy transmission

Philipp J. Koenig and Eva Schliephake

20222637: The financial accelerator mechanism: does frequency matter?

Claudia Foroni, Paolo Gelain and Massimiliano Marcellino

20222636: Savings, efficiency and bank runs

Agnese Leonello, Caterina Mendicino, Ettore Panetti and Davide Porcellacchia

20212635: Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidity and optimal inflation

Mirko Abbritti, Agostino Consolo and Sebastian Weber

20212634: Sectoral exchange rate pass-through in the euro area

Chiara Osbat, Yiqiao Sun and Martin Wagner

20212633: Household saving and fiscal policy: evidence for the euro area from a thick modelling perspective

Cristina Checherita-Westphal and Marcel Stechert

20212632: Product market structure and monetary policy: evidence from the Euro Area

Annalisa Ferrando, Peter McAdam, Filippos Petroulakis and Xavier Vives

20212631: The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk

Sante Carbone, Margherita Giuzio, Sujit Kapadia, Johannes Sebastian Krämer, Ken Nyholm and Katia Vozian

20212630: The exchange rate insulation puzzle

Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller and Sebastian Schmidt

20212629: Serial sovereign default: the role of shocks and fiscal habits

J. R. Faria, Peter McAdam and J. Orrillo

20212628: Global risk and the dollar

Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot Müller and Ben Schumann

20212627: Monetary policy communication: perspectives from former policy makers at the ECB

Michael Ehrmann, Sarah Holton, Danielle Kedan and Gillian Phelan

20212626: Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability

Donata Faccia, Miles Parker and Livio Stracca

20212625: Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate

Laurence Ball and Joern Onken

20212624: Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement

Andrej Sokol

20212623: Assessing the fiscal-monetary policy mix in the euro area

Krzysztof Bańkowski, Kai Christoffel and Thomas Faria

20212622: Financial frictions: micro vs macro volatility

Seungcheol Lee, Ralph Luetticke and Morten Ravn

20212621: Firm expectations and economic activity

Zeno Enders, Franziska Hünnekes and Gernot Müller

20212620: Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment

Jan Willem End, Paul Konietschke, Anna Samarina and Irina M. Stanga

20212619: Addressing the endogeneity of slack in Phillips Curves

Max-Sebastian Dovì, Gerrit Koester and Christiane Nickel

20212618: What are banks’ actual capital targets?

Cyril Couaillier

20212617: Markups and inflation cyclicality in the euro area

Omiros Kouvavas, Chiara Osbat, Timo Reinelt and Isabel Vansteenkiste

20212616: Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment: a tale of two crises

Lorena Saiz, Julian Ashwin and Eleni Kalamara

20212615: Quantitative easing and corporate innovation

Niklas Grimm, Luc Laeven and Alexander Popov

20212614: Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach

Kristina Bluwstein, Marcus Buckmann, Andreas Joseph, Sujit Kapadia and Özgür Şimşek

20212613: What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?

Max Breitenlechner, Georgios Georgiadis and Ben Schumann

20212612: Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality

Claus Brand, Gavin Goy and Wolfgang Lemke

20212611: The transmission of euro area monetary policy to financially euroised countries

Isabella Moder

20212610: Estimating the elasticity of consumer prices to the exchange rate: an accounting approach

Hadrien Camatte, Guillaume Daudin, Violaine Faubert, Antoine Lalliard and Christine Rifflart

20212609: The ECB's tracker: nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB

Armando Marozzi

20212608: Demand or supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy

Matteo Ciccarelli and Fulvia Marotta

20212607: Not all shocks are created equal: assessing heterogeneity in the bank lending channel

Laura Blattner, Luísa Farinha and Gil Nogueira

20212606: Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe

Malin Andersson, Laurent Maurin and Desislava Rusinova

20212605: Investment funds, risk-taking, and monetary policy in the euro area

Margherita Giuzio, Christoph Kaufmann, Ellen Ryan and Lorenzo Cappiello

20212604: Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?

Marta Banbura, Danilo Leiva-Leon and Jan-Oliver Menz

20212603: Global models for a global pandemic: the impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies

Pablo Garcia Sanchez, Pascal Jacquinot, Črt Lenarčič, Matija Lozej and Kostas(Konstantinos) Mavromatis

20212602: Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks

Žymantas Budrys, Mario Porqueddu and Andrej Sokol

20212601: A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market

Agostino Consolo, Claudia Foroni and Catalina Martínez Hernández

20212600: The time-varying evolution of inflation risks

Dimitris Korobilis, Bettina Landau, Alberto Musso and Anthoulla Phella

20212599: The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey

Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie Huber and Isabelle Salle

20212598: Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions

Annalisa Ferrando, Alexander Popov and Gregory F. Udell

20212597: Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area

Josefina Fabiani, Michael Fidora, Ralph Setzer, Andreas Westphal and Nico Zorell

20212596: Switching-track after the Great Recession

Francesca Vinci and Omar Licandro

20212595: Banks' risk-taking within a banking union

Matteo Farnè and Angelos Vouldis

20212594: Central bank communication with non-experts: a road to nowhere?

Michael Ehrmann and Alena Wabitsch

20212593: Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Reversal Rate and Risk-Taking

Florian Heider and Agnese Leonello

20212592: The macroeconomic impact of euro area labour market reforms: evidence from a narrative panel VAR

Gerhard Rünstler

20212591: Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem

Mariarosaria Comunale and Francesco Mongelli

20212590: Monetary policy, agent heterogeneity and inequality: insights from a three-agent New Keynesian model

Maria Eskelinen

20212589: Bank balance sheet constraints and bond liquidity

Johannes Breckenfelder and Victoria Ivashina

20212588: Monetary and fiscal complementarity in the Covid-19 pandemic

Jagjit Chadha, Luisa Corrado, Jack Meaning and Tobias Schuler

20212587: Asymmetric monetary policy rules for the euro area and the US

Junior Maih, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto and Annukka Ristiniemi

20212586: The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany

Thorsten Klug, Eric Mayer and Tobias Schuler

20212584: Fifty shades of QE: comparing findings of central bankers and academics

Martina Jančoková, Lubos Pastor, Brian Fabo and Elisabeth Kempf

20212583: The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States

Elena Bobeica, Matteo Ciccarelli and Isabel Vansteenkiste

20212582: ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty

Cecilia Melo Fernandes

20212581: Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds

Matthias Sydow, Aurore Schilte, Giovanni Covi, Marija Deipenbrock, Leonardo Del Vecchio, Paweł Fiedor, Gabor Fukker, Max Gehrend, Régis Gourdel, Alberto Grassi, Björn Hilberg, Michiel Kaijser, Georgios Kaoudis, Luca Mingarelli, Mattia Montagna, Thibaut Piquard, Dilyara Salakhova and Natalia Tente

20212580: Dominant currencies and the export supply channel

Erik Frohm

20212579: Corporate loans, banks’ internal risk estimates and central bank collateral: evidence from the euro area

Alessandro Calza, Julius-Benjamin Hey, Alessandro Parrini and Stephan Sauer

20212578: A unified framework for CBDC design: remuneration, collateral haircuts and quantity constraints

Katrin Assenmacher, Aleksander Berentsen, Claus Brand and Nora Lamersdorf

20212577: Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data

Igor Custodio Joao, Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20212576: Labour shortages and wage growth

Erik Frohm

20212575: The case for a positive euro area inflation target: evidence from France, Germany and Italy

Klaus Adam, Erwan Gautier, Sergio Santoro and Henning Weber

20212574: Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?

Georgios Georgiadis, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Cédric Tille

20212573: Monetary policy, neutrality and the environment

Joao Ricardo Faria, Peter McAdam and Bruno Viscolani

20212572: Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment

Günter Coenen, Carlos Montes-Galdón and Sebastian Schmidt

20212571: Labor adjustment and productivity in the OECD

Maarten Dossche, Andrea Giovanni Gazzani and Vivien Lewis

20212570: Rational inattention: a review

Bartosz Maćkowiak, Filip Matejka and Mirko Wiederholt

20212569: Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions: evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Michael Ehrmann, Robin Tietz and Bauke Visser

20212568: No country is an island: international cooperation and climate change

Maria Sole Pagliari and Massimo Ferrari Minesso

20212567: Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey

Oana-Maria Georgescu and Diego Vila Martín

20212566: Measuring price selection in microdata: it’s not there

Peter Karadi, Raphael Schoenle and Jesse Wursten

20212565: The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy

Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Robert Engle, Stephan Fahr, Manfred Kremer, Simone Manganelli and Bernd Schwaab

20212564: Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies

Massimo Rostagno, Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Wolfgang Lemke, Roberto Motto and Arthur Saint Guilhem

20212563: The Covid pandemic in the market: infected, immune and cured bonds

Andrea Zaghini

20212562: Point targets, tolerance bands, or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations

Michael Ehrmann

20212561: Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic

Stefano Corradin, Niklas Grimm and Bernd Schwaab

20212560: What drives euro area financial market developments? The role of US spillovers and global risk

Lennart Brandt, Arthur Saint Guilhem, Maximilian Schröder and Ine Van Robays

20212559: On the effectiveness of macroprudential policy

Miguel Ampudia, Marco Lo Duca, Mátyás Farkas, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Mara Pirovano, Gerhard Rünstler and Eugen Tereanu

20212558: The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models

Elena Bobeica and Benny Hartwig

20212557: The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending

Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny and Michael Weber

20212556: A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy

Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Stephan Fahr, Manfred Kremer, Simone Manganelli and Bernd Schwaab

20212555: A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)

Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto and Annukka Ristiniemi

20212554: On the optimal control of interbank contagion in the euro area banking system

Gabor Fukker and Christoffer Kok

20212553: Lending relationships in loan renegotiation: evidence from corporate loans

Melina Papoutsi

20212552: Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s public sector purchase programme

Katharina Plessen-Mátyás, Christoph Kaufmann and Julian von Landesberger

20212551: The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test

Christoffer Kok, Carola Müller, Steven Ongena and Cosimo Pancaro

20212550: Do banks fuel climate change?

Alessio Reghezza, Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza and Martina Spaggiari

20212549: Banks and negative interest rates

Florian Heider, Farzad Saidi and Glenn Schepens

20212548: Investing in crises

Matthew Baron, Luc Laeven, Julien Penasse and Yevhenii Usenko

20212547: Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?

Alexander Jung and Patrick Kühl

20212546: Globalisation and the efficiency-equity trade-off

Roland Beck, Virginia Di Nino and Livio Stracca

20212545: Market failures in market-based finance

Giovanni di Iasio and Dominika Kryczka

20212544: Financial reforms and innovation: a micro-macro perspective

Spyridon Boikos, Ioannis Bournakis, Dimitris Christopoulos and Peter McAdam

20212543: Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?

Marta Banbura, Federica Brenna, Joan Paredes and Francesco Ravazzolo

20212542: Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity

Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio Primiceri

20212541: Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area

Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti and Martino Ricci