Working Paper Series

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20232842: Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth

Sulkhan Chavleishvili and Manfred Kremer

20232841: Same same but different: credit risk provisioning under IFRS 9

Markus Behn and Cyril Couaillier

20232840: Labour at risk

Vasco Botelho, Claudia Foroni and Andrea Renzetti

20232839: The economic costs of supply chain decoupling

Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann and Baptiste Meunier

20232838: Monetary policy shocks and firms’ bank loan expectations

Annalisa Ferrando and Caterina Forti Grazzini

20232837: Risk retention in the European securitization market: skimmed by the skin-in-the-game methods?

Vivian M. van Breemen, Claudia Schwarz and Dennis Vink

20232836: Nowcasting world trade with machine learning: a three-step approach

Menzie D. Chinn, Baptiste Meunier and Sebastian Stumpner

20232835: Innovation, industry equilibrium, and discount rates

Maria Cecilia Bustamante and Francesca Zucchi

20232834: Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices

Roberto A. De Santis and Tommaso Tornese

20232833: Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach

Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Manfred Kremer and Frederik Lund-Thomsen

20232832: Unobserved components model(s): output gaps and financial cycles

Justine Guillochon and Julien Le Roux

20232831: New technologies and jobs in Europe

Stefania Albanesi, António Dias Da Silva, Juan F. Jimeno, Ana Lamo and Alena Wabitsch

20232830: Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach

Michele Lenza, Inès Moutachaker and Joan Paredes

20232829: Life insurance convexity

Nicolaus Grochola, Helmut Gründl and Christian Kubitza

20232828: The state-dependent impact of changes in bank capital requirements

Jan Hannes Lang and Dominik Menno

20232827: Rational inattention and the business cycle effects of productivity and news shocks

Bartosz Maćkowiak and Mirko Wiederholt

20232826: Firm-bank relationships: a cross-country comparison

Kamelia Kosekova, Angela Maddaloni, Melina Papoutsi and Fabiano Schivardi

20232825: Liquidity buffers and open-end investment funds: containing outflows and reducing fire sales

Lennart Dekker, Luis Molestina Vivar, Michael Wedow and Christian Weistroffer

20232824: Central bank communication and trust: an experimental study on the European Central Bank and the general public

Sarah Mochhoury

20232823: Asset prices, collateral and bank lending: the case of Covid-19 and real estate

Aoife Horan, Barbara Jarmulska and Ellen Ryan

20232822: Are preferential agreements beneficial to EU trade? New evidence from the EU-South Korea treaty

Beniamino Quintieri and Giovanni Stamato

20232821: The impact of global warming on inflation: averages, seasonality and extremes

Maximilian Kotz, Friderike Kuik, Eliza Lis and Christiane Nickel

20232820: Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: testing the Porter hypothesis

Nicola Benatti, Martin Groiss, Petra Kelly and Paloma Lopez-Garcia

20232819: Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: an assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector

Günter Coenen, Matija Lozej and Romanos Priftis

20232818: Bank private information in CDS markets

Andrada Bilan, Steven Ongena and Cosimo Pancaro

20232817: Consumption effects of job loss expectations: new evidence for the euro area

António Dias Da Silva, Desislava Rusinova and Marco Weißler

20232816: Investor-driven corporate finance: evidence from insurance markets

Christian Kubitza

20232815: Nowcasting employment in the euro area

Marta Banbura, Irina Belousova, Katalin Bodnár and Mate Toth

20232814: Stress testing with multi-faceted liquidity: the central bank collateral framework as a financial stability tool

Angelo Cuzzola, Claudio Barbieri and Ulrich Bindseil

20232813: Financing the low-carbon transition in Europe

Olimpia Carradori, Margherita Giuzio, Sujit Kapadia, Dilyara Salakhova and Katia Vozian

20232812: Too levered for Pigou: carbon pricing, financial constraints, and leverage regulation

Robin Döttling and Magdalena Rola-Janicka

20232811: CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model

Katrin Assenmacher, Lea Bitter and Annukka Ristiniemi

20232810: Richer earnings dynamics, consumption and portfolio choice over the life cycle

Julio Gálvez and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

20232809: Digitalisation and the economy

Luca Dedola, Michael Ehrmann, Peter Hoffmann, Ana Lamo, Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, Jiri Slacalek and Georg Strasser

20232808: Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area

Jan Hannes Lang, Marek Rusnák and Moritz Greiwe

20232807: Forecasting housing investment

Carlos Cañizares Martínez, Gabe de Bondt and Arne Gieseck

20232806: Interbank asset-liability networks with fire sale management

Zachary Feinstein and Grzegorz Hałaj

20232805: Do non-banks need access to the lender of last resort? Evidence from fund runs

Johannes Breckenfelder and Marie Hoerova

20232804: How does the Phillips curve slope vary with repricing rates?

Emmanuel De Veirman

20232803: Asset allocation and risk taking under different interest rate regimes

Lieven Hermans, Thomas Kostka and Danilo Vassallo

20232802: Fiscal policy in the semi-structural model ECB-BASE

Krzysztof Bańkowski

20232801: Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC

Manuel A. Muñoz and Oscar Soons

20232800: Derivative margin calls: a new driver of MMF flows

Maddalena Ghio, Linda Rousová, Dilyara Salakhova and Germán Villegas Bauer

20232799: Liquidity support and distress resilience in bank-affiliated mutual funds

Giulio Bagattini, Falko Fecht and Angela Maddaloni

20232798: The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation

Matteo Ciccarelli, Friderike Kuik and Catalina Martínez Hernández

20232797: Monetary policy strategies for the euro area: optimal rules in the presence of the ELB

Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto and Annukka Ristiniemi

20232796: Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation

Ernest Dautović, Leonardo Gambacorta and Alessio Reghezza

20232795: The effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential policies: a cross-country analysis using an integrated micro-macro simulation model

Stelios Giannoulakis, Marco Forletta, Marco Gross and Eugen Tereanu

20232794: Digitalisation and productivity: gamechanger or sideshow?

Robert Anderton, Vasco Botelho and Paul Reimers

20232793: The climate and the economy

Johannes Breckenfelder, Bartosz Maćkowiak, David Marques-Ibanez, Conny Olovsson, Alexander Popov, Davide Porcellacchia and Glenn Schepens

20232792: Does IFRS 9 increase banks’ resilience?

Arndt-Gerrit Kund and Daniel Rugilo

20232791: Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations: a compositional data approach

Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas and Geoff Kenny

20232790: Euro area banks’ market power, lending channel and stability: the effects of negative policy rates

Yener Altunbas, Giuseppe Avignone, Christoffer Kok and Cosimo Pancaro

20232789: House prices and ultra-low interest rates: exploring the non-linear nexus

Daniel Dieckelmann, Hannah S. Hempell, Barbara Jarmulska, Jan Hannes Lang and Marek Rusnák

20232788: Monetary policy and the drifting natural rate of interest

Sandra Daudignon and Oreste Tristani

20232787: Evaluating the impact of dividend restrictions on euro area bank market values

Desislava Andreeva, Paul Bochmann and Julius Schneider

20232786: Double conditioning: the hidden connection between Bayesian and classical statistics

Simone Manganelli

20232785: Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy

Michael Ehrmann, Dimitris Georgarakos and Geoff Kenny

20232784: Leakages from macroprudential regulations: the case of household-specific tools and corporate credit

Apoorv Bhargava, Lucyna Gόrnicka and Peichu Xie

20232783: Central Bank Digital Currency and financial stability

Toni Ahnert, Peter Hoffmann, Agnese Leonello and Davide Porcellacchia

20232782: Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial fragility

Elena Carletti, Agnese Leonello and Robert Marquez

20232781: Passive monetary policy and active fiscal policy in a monetary union

Bartosz Maćkowiak and Sebastian Schmidt

20232780: Dynamic nonparametric clustering of multivariate panel data

Igor Custodio Joao, Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20232779: Toward a green economy: the role of central bank’s asset purchases

Alessandro Ferrari and Valerio Nispi Landi

20232778: Monetary policy and local industry structure

Alexander Popov and Lea Steininger

20232777: The asymmetric adjustment of global imbalances: myth or fact?

Neus Dausà and Livio Stracca

20232776: Cross-country price and inflation dispersion: retail network or national border?

Teresa Messner, Fabio Rumler and Georg Strasser

20232775: Negative rates, monetary policy transmission and cross-border lending via international financial centres

Desislava Andreeva, Andra Coman, Mary Everett, Maren Froemel, Kelvin Ho, Simon Lloyd, Baptiste Meunier, Justine Pedrono, Dennis Reinhardt, Andrew Wong, Eric Wong and Dawid Żochowski

20232774: Euro Area inflation differentials: the role of fiscal policies revisited

Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Nadine Leiner-Killinger and Teresa Schildmann

20232773: Estimating the impact of quality adjustment on consumer price inflation

Jan-Oliver Menz, Elisabeth Wieland and Jens Mehrhoff

20232772: Optimal monetary policy with the risk-taking channel

Angela Abbate and Dominik Thaler

20232771: Window dressing of regulatory metrics: evidence from repo markets

Claudio Bassi, Markus Behn, Michael Grill and Martin Waibel

20232770: Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements

Michael Ehrmann and Paul Hubert

20232769: A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area

Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot and Matija Lozej

20232768: DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning

Anders Warne

20232767: Using machine learning to measure financial risk in China

Alexander Al-Haschimi, Apostolos Apostolou, Andres Azqueta-Gavaldon and Martino Ricci

20232766: GVC exporter performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of supply bottlenecks

Laura Lebastard, Marco Matani and Roberta Serafini

20232765: Why European banks adjust their dividend payouts?

Marco Belloni, Maciej Grodzicki and Mariusz Jarmuzek

20232764: Benefits and costs of the ETS in the EU, a lesson learned for the CBAM design

Justus Böning, Virginia Di Nino and Till Folger

20222763: Leaning against the global financial cycle

Andrea Ferrero, Maurizio Michael Habib, Livio Stracca and Fabrizio Venditti

20222762: Carbon taxes and the geography of fossil lending

Luc Laeven and Alexander Popov

20222761: Optimal trend inflation, misallocation and the pass-through of labour costs to prices

Sergio Santoro and Eliana Viviano

20222760: Pandemic lending: micro and macro effects of model-based regulation

Franco Fiordelisi, Giulia Fusi, Angela Maddaloni and David Marques-Ibanez

20222759: Monetary communication rules

Laura Gáti and Amy Handlan

20222758: Bank bond holdings and bail-in regulatory changes: evidence from euro area security registers

Carlo Altavilla, Cecilia Melo Fernandes, Steven Ongena and Alessandro Scopelliti

20222757: Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk

Régis Gourdel and Matthias Sydow

20222756: The impact of derivatives collateralisation on liquidity risk: evidence from the investment fund sector

Audrius Jukonis, Elisa Letizia and Linda Rousová

20222755: Real interest rates, bank borrowing, and fragility

Toni Ahnert, Kartik Anand and Philipp Johann König

20222754: Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach

Carlos Montes-Galdón, Joan Paredes and Elias Wolf

20222753: Bank lending rates and the remuneration for risk: evidence from portfolio and loan level data

Agha Durrani, Julian Metzler, Nektarios Michail and Johannes Gabriel Werner

20222752: Navigating the housing channel of monetary policy across euro area regions

Niccolò Battistini, Matteo Falagiarda, Angelina Hackmann and Moreno Roma

20222751: Medium-term investment responses to activity shocks: the role of corporate debt

Rodrigo Barrela, Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Ralph Setzer

20222750: Euro area monetary policy and TARGET balances: a trilogy

Jens Eisenschmidt, Danielle Kedan and Martin Schmitz

20222749: Chronicle of a death foretold: does higher volatility anticipate corporate default?

Miguel Ampudia, Filippo Busetto and Fabio Fornari

20222748: Price setting before and during the pandemic: evidence from Swiss consumer prices

Barbara Rudolf and Pascal Seiler

20222747: Are ethical and green investment funds more resilient?

Laura-Dona Capotă, Margherita Giuzio, Sujit Kapadia and Dilyara Salakhova

20222746: Risk sharing and monetary policy transmission

Sebastian Hauptmeier, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla and Théodore Renault

20222745: The augmented bank balance-sheet channel of monetary policy

Christian Bittner, Diana Bonfim, Florian Heider, Farzad Saidi, Glenn Schepens and Carla Soares

20222744: The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey

Francesco Mongelli, Wolfgang Pointner and Jan Willem End

20222743: Dawn of the (half) dead: the twisted world of zombie identification

Luca Mingarelli, Beatrice Ravanetti, Tamarah Shakir and Jonas Wendelborn