Policy Research Working Paper Series

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11426: Cheap Energy Might Not Be Enough: A Trade Model of AI Compute Services

Michael Lokshin

11425: Human Capital Expenditure and Its Effectiveness on Multi-Program Coverage: A Policy Prioritization Investigation

Omar A. Guerrero, Daniele Guariso, Gonzalo Castañeda and Michael Weber

11424: Fusing Data Sources to Measure Multidimensional Poverty

Ben James Brunckhorst, Minh Cong Nguyen, Nishant Yonzan, Hai-Anh Dang and Christoph Lakner

11423: When Digital Nudges Nag: Evidence on Program Take-up from a WhatsApp Intervention

Maria Jose Urbina Florez, Andres Moya and Sandra Rozo

11422: Assessing the Impact of Renewable versus Fossil Fuels Energy on Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis of the Elasticity across Development Stages

Nisan Gorgulu and Maria Vagliasindi

11421: Property Rights, Agricultural Technology Adoption, and Investment: Experimental Evidence from Mozambique

Andrew Peter Brudevold-Newman, Claire Elise Boxho, Joao H. C. Montalvao Machado, Michael O'Sullivan and Matheus Proenca

11420: Does Informal Competition Reduce Firm-Provided Worker Training among Formal Manufacturing SMEs in Sub-Saharan Africa ?

Mohammad Amin and Eugenia Aurora Rodriguez Cuniolo

11419: Trade Diversion and Jobs: Evidence from Mexican Municipalities

Carlos Rodriguez Castelan, Emmanuel Vazquez and Hernan Winkler

11418: Improving Student Outcomes through Adaptive Learning Platforms: Experimental Evidence from the Dominican Republic

Carolina Lopez and Astrid Camille Pineda

11417: The Potential Market for Care in East Asia and Pacific

Nadia Esham, Daniel Zefanya Halim and Aaditya Mattoo

11416: Bilateral Import Demand Elasticities and Balanced Trade Protection

Hiau Looi Kee, Ileana Cristina Constantinescu Neagu and Yoto Yotov

11415: Beyond the Urban Sweet Spot: Firm-Level Evidence of Over-Agglomeration in Mongolia’s Capital

Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez and Mijiddorj Lkhagvasuren

11414: The Agricultural Gender Gap in Sub-Saharan Africa: Magnitude, Drivers, and Policy Directions

Aletheia Donald and Kibrom Tafere

11413: Decentralization, Service Delivery, and Legitimacy: The Case of Mali

Gaetan Mertens and Nouhoum Toure

11412: Learning at Scale: Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, and World Bank Performance

Somik V. Lall, Xinyi Su and Maria Vagliasindi

11411: Federal Research Funding and STEM Education

Emily E. Cook, Devaki Ghose and Ekaterina Khmelnitskaya

11410: Transportation Infrastructure and Total Factor Productivity: Development Heterogeneity and Resilience under Adverse Shocks

Hyunseok Kim

11409: Do Information-Based Interventions Influence Tax Compliance Differently across Men and Women ? Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

Alemayehu Ambel and Firew Bekele Woldeyes

11408: The Impact of School Grants on Disadvantaged Students: Experimental Evidence from Romania

Rafael De Hoyos, Andrei Munteanu and Cristian Pop-Eleches

11407: Assessing The Real-World Economic Value of Weather Forecasts under Compounding Extremes: A Decision-Specific Framework

Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori, Paolo Avner and Stephane Hallegatte

11406: Firm’s Preferences for Emissions Reducing Measures and Willingness to Pay for a Carbon Tax in Viet Nam

Govinda Timilsina, Chau Tran and Hochman.Gal

11405: The (Fiscal) Dividend of Infrastructure: Roads and Revenues in Rwanda

Abdou Musonera, Aimable Nsabimana and Daniel Overbeck

11404: Trade Finance Use by Heterogeneous Firms

Francesca de Nicola, Alexandros Ragoussis, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr and Trang Thu Tran

11403: A Theory of “Political Will” for Reforms

Laura Karpuska and Stuti Khemani

11402: The Impact of Conflict on Foreign Investments: Evidence from Project-Level Data

Arti Grover and Pierre-Louis Vézina

11401: Measuring Agency Through Psychological Constructs in Lower-Income Settings

Clare Clingain, Aletheia Donald and Maria Hernandez-de-Benito

11400: Worldwide Job Losses Due to Natural Hazards

Abdulrasheed Abdulkarim Isah, Jun Rentschler, Robin Middelanis, Paolo Avner and Stephane Hallegatte

11399: Gender and Goals Matter for Youth Employment: Returns to Socio-Emotional Skills Training in Tanzania

Rachel Cassidy, Smita Das, Clara Delavallade, Elijah Kipchumba and Munshi Sulaiman

11398: Who Gains from Cybersecurity Preparedness ? Evidence from Sectoral Growth

Estefania Belen Vergara Cobos, Selcen Cakir and Hagai Mei Zahav

11397: Motherhood and Labor Market Trajectories in Türkiye

Javier Baez, Santiago Garriga, Elizaveta Perova and Meliz Tyurkileri

11396: Evaluating Alternative Approaches to Small Area Estimation of Poverty with Survey and Census Data

Hai-Anh Dang, Minh Do, Partha Lahiri, Melany Gualavisi, David Newhouse, Talip Kilic, Peter Lanjouw and Roy van der Weide

11395: Inequality of Opportunity in South Asia: The Puzzle of Educational Gains Without Consumption Gains

Maurizio Bussolo, Vito Peragine and Fabian Reutzel

11394: Bridging the Gap: Infrastructure, Services, and Labor Market Integration

Devaki Ghose, Patrik Karpaty, Bengt Söderlund and Yingyan Zhao

11393: Comparing the Effectiveness of Low-Carbon Policies: A Technology Diffusion Approach

Unnada Chewpreecha, Francesca de Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo, Hector Pollitt and Trang Thu Tran

11392: Innovation Patterns in the World Bank Group Portfolio: A Pilot Analysis of IEG Evaluations for Lending Operations

Natalia Agapitova, Anastasia Nedayvoda, Stephen Joseph Winkler, Amschel Nathaniel De Rothschild, Ergun Ertekin and Sarah Lenoble

11391: The Economics of Cloud Infrastructure: Cost, Risk, and Comparative Advantage in a Commoditized Data Market

Luciano Charlita De Freitas, Michel Kerf, Priscila Honório Evangelista, Julian Najles, Luiz Alberto Esteves and Luis Alberto Andres

11390: Closing the Doors: Sexual Harassment and the Survival Rates of Women-owned Firms

Solène Delecourt, Sreelakshmi Papineni, Niklas Buehren and Salman Alibhai

11389: Are the Poor More Exposed to Climate Hazards in Latin America?

Ben James Brunckhorst, Miki Khanh Doan, Alejandro De la Fuente, Samuel Freije-Rodriguez, Catalina García and Minh Cong Nguyen

11388: In Sickness and In Health: Motivating Improved Healthcare Using Holistic Patient Contracts

Kevin Croke, Benjamin Daniels, Robert Lipinski and Daniel Rogger

11387: Nudging Parents out the Door: The Impacts of Parental Encouragement on School Choice and Test Scores

Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Michael Kremer, Joost de Laat, Oluchi Mbonu and Cole Scanlon

11386: Converging Paths: Intergenerational Educational Mobility and the Decline of Gender and Geographic Gaps in Bangladesh

Sergio Olivieri, Giovanni Razzu and Ayago Esmubancha Wambile

11385: Tax Evasion and the Contribution-Benefit Link: The Case of Parental Benefits in Hungary and Latvia

Anikó Bíró, Péter Elek, Vitalijs Jascisens, Daniel Prinz, László Sándor and Anna Zasova

11384: Do Socio-Emotional Skills Pay Off and Can They Be Developed Through Training ? A Meta-Analysis

Diego Angel-Urdinola, Maurice Kugler, Narae Lee, Angelo Santos and Olzhas Zhorayev

11383: Public-Private Dialogue and Growth

Yi Jie Gwee and Tristan Reed

11382: Using Survey Data to Understand the Health Needs of Difficult to Reach Populations: Evidence from a Community Survey Regarding the Individual and Contextual Correlates of Sex Life Happiness Among European Men Who Have Sex With Men

Alexander Hamilton, Ford Hickson and Axel J Schmidt

11381: International Trade Finance and Learning Dynamics

David Kohn, Emiliano Evaristo Luttini, Michal Szkup and Shengxing Zhang

11380: One-Fifth of the World’s Population Is at High Risk of Climate-Related Hazards

Ruth Hill, Nisan Gorgulu, Ben James Brunckhorst, Minh Cong Nguyen, Stephane Hallegatte and Esther G. Naikal

11379: The Missing Half of Capital: Unlocking Finance for Women-Led Firms in Europe and Central Asia

Daksh Baheti, Lucero Burga, Anna Fruttero and Lucia Luzi

11378: Does Social Assistance Reach the Most Vulnerable in Settings with Forced Displacement ? Evidence from the Central African Republic

Jonathan William Lain and Johannes G. Hoogeveen

11377: Closing Data Gaps in Fertilizer Subsidy Analysis in Bangladesh: A Survey-to-Survey Imputation Approach

Fnu Jonaed, Ivan Francisco Gachet Otanez and Leopoldo Tornarolli

11376: Can a Digital Job Search Coach Reduce Unemployment ? Experimental Evidence from France

Aïcha Ben Dhia, Bruno Crépon, Esther Mbih, Louise Rita Paul-Delvaux, Bertille Picard and Vincent Pons

11375: Rising Heat in the Labor Market: The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Firms and Jobs in Europe

Luca Bettarelli, Thomas Farole, Michael Ganslmeir, Indhira Vanessa Santos and Marc Tobias Schiffbauer

11374: Using Price Incentives to Bound Welfare from Pay-as-You-Go Solar Electricity

Megan Elizabeth Lang

11373: Occupational Mobility and Green Transition: A Stylized Estimation of Skill Investment Needs in South Asia

Andrés Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, Monica Yanez Pagans, Camilla Knudsen and Saher Asad

11372: Female Labor Force Participation and Gender Norms: A Machine Learning Analysis of the Arab Republic of Egypt

Natalia Pecorari and Jose Antonio Cuesta Leiva

11371: How Effective Are Emission Trading Systems in Reducing Emissions ? Empirical Evidence from the EU, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea

Ze Song, Gal Hochman and Govinda Timilsina

11370: At the Edge of Risk: Assessing Mongolia’s “Plausible Worst-Case” Scenario

Migle Petrauskaite, Hector Pollitt and Xinru Lin

11369: Management of Health Care Facilities and Patient Attendance during Major Disruptions: Evidence from Kenya

Kathryn Gilman Andrews, Fabiano Dal Ri, Roberta V. Gatti, Renata Freitas Lemos, Mario Macis and Lydia Nakhone

11368: Uganda's Pioneer Refugee Model: Advances in Inclusion, Self-Reliance, and Pathways Forward

Susan Awor and Sandra Rozo

11367: Horizontal Equity of Taxation: Citizen Beliefs and Policy Preferences

Pierre Bachas, Christopher Hoy, Anders Jensen and Mahvish Ifrah Shaukat

11366: Even the Announcement Matters ? The Effect of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Exporter Behavior

Ugur Aytun, Gunhild Berg, Seyit Cilasun and Etkin Ozen

11365: Family Matters: Social Networks and Women’s Economic Empowerment

Nono Akpedje Ayivi Guedehoussou, Abhilasha Sahay, Maria Emilia Cucagna and Mansi Sharma

11364: Weather Shocks and Unintended Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Musa Hasen Ahmed, Halefom Yigzaw Nigus, Hiwot Mekonnen Mesfin and Gebrelibanos Gebremariam

11363: In Tablets We Trust ? Validation of the Use of Tablet-Based Tools for Land Area Measurement in Household Surveys

Federica Petruccelli, Sydney Gourlay, Adriana Paolantonio, Emanuele Clemente and John Ilukor

11362: Are Robots Shifting Foreign Direct Investments ?

Francesca de Nicola, Shawn Tan and Aaron Tang

11361: Does Automatic Loan Approval Reduce Gender Bias in SME Lending ?

Irani Arraiz, Miriam Bruhn and Claudia Ruiz Ortega

11360: Fine-Scale Spatial Disaggregation of Statistical Data via Graph Neural Networks

Kamwoo Lee, Brian Blankespoor and David Newhouse

11359: Survey-to-Survey Poverty Monitoring under Economic Shocks: The Role of Proxies and Flexible Nonlinear Learners

Nobuo Yoshida, Yusaku Kawashima and Shinya Takamatsu

11358: Project-Level Learning Lowers the Conflict Cost Premium of Energy Access

Ali Ahmad

11357: Completing the AfCFTA Mosaic: Liberalization of Trade in Services

Karlygash Serikovna Dairabayeva, Carmen Estrades Pineyrua and Maryla Maliszewska

11356: Counteracting the Impact of Societal Aging on Income Inequality: A Case Study of Malaysia

Gerton Rongen, Matthew Dornan, Philip O'Keefe and Peter Lanjouw

11355: Testing for Market Power in Agricultural Land Markets: Evidence from Ukraine

Klaus W. Deininger and Daniel Ayalew Ali

11354: Foreign Tariffs as Catalysts for Reform ? The Potential Development Dividend

Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo and Jose E. Signoret

11353: Policy Pulse: Sensing the Sentiment toward Climate Policies in the Public Sphere

Nisan Gorgulu and Penelope Ann Mealy

11352: Foreign Demand Shocks and Domestic Value Added: Firm-Level Evidence from Viet Nam

Anmol Agarwal, Alessandro Barattieri and Aaditya Mattoo

11351: Raising Children Alone in Latin America and the Caribbean: Strong Mothers and Weak Social Assistance

Laura Cuesta, Jacobus Joost De Hoop and Hugo Rolando Nopo Aguilar

11350: The World Is Developing at Its Slowest Pace in 75 Years

Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Umar Serajuddin, Divyanshi Wadhwa and Nishant Yonzan

11349: Bottom-Coding for the Measurement of Global Poverty and Inequality

Nishant Yonzan, Minh Cong Nguyen, Christoph Lakner, Aart C. Kraay, Dean Jolliffe, Haoyu Wu and Gabriel Lara Ibarra

11348: Multidimensional Poverty: Why Not Make Up the Missing Joint Distribution Data ?

Benoit Decerf, Mery Ferrando and Balint Menyhert

11347: International Trade Policy and Quantitative Models: A Practitioner’s Guide

Erhan Artuc and Johan Andrey Ortega Hernandez

11346: Urban Heat, Mortality, and Economic Costs: Evidence from Bangkok, Thailand

Jane Park and Steven Louis Rubinyi

11345: Who Smooths the Shock ? Government and Private Saving in International Risk Sharing

Giorgi Bokhua and Ergys Islamaj

11344: Do State SME Programs Work ? Evidence from Loan Subsidies and Credit Guarantees in Kazakhstan

Martin Melecký, Claudia Ruiz Ortega, Asset Bizhan and Ganbaatar Jambal

11343: Moving beyond Time Poverty: Measuring Women’s and Men’s Time-Use Agency

Thomas Daum, Talip Kilic, Gayatri Koolwal, Greg Seymour and Wilbert Drazi Vundru

11342: Shaken, but Not Deterred: Acute Stressors and the Formation of Hope and Aspirations among Tertiary-Educated Youth in Myanmar in the Aftermath of the 2025 Earthquake

Jeffrey R. Bloem, Yashodhan Ghorpade and Muhammad Saad Imtiaz

11341: Where Are Pakistan’s Out-of-School Children ? Mapping Accessibility of Schooling Using Satellite Data and Machine Learning Methods with an Application to the 2022 Floods

Umar Saif, Amer Hasan, Ayesha Tahir, Koen Martijn Geven, Mohsen Ali, Aliza Masood, Muhammad Abdul Rahman and Sheena Fazili

11340: Policy Lessons from International Commodity Agreements: Failure of Non-Oil Pacts and the Endurance of OPEC

John Baffes, Peter Nagle and Shane S. Streifel

11339: Electrifying Africa’s Economic Transformation: What Reforms Should Governments Pursue?

Andrew L. Dabalen, Stuti Khemani, Megan Elizabeth Lang and Govinda Timilsina

11338: Willingness-to-Pay for Emerging Technologies: A Study of Hydrogen Demand in the Ammonia Industry

Svetlana Ikonnikova and Jevgenijs Steinbuks

11337: Is Place-Based Green Industrial Policy Effective ? Evidence from the Inflation Reduction Act

Joep Keuzenkamp, Jacopo Mazza, Bob Rijkers and Katherine Stapleton

11336: Women’s Political Empowerment and Public Spending Efficiency in Developing Countries

Yacouba Coulibaly and Aissata Coulibaly

11335: Conflicts and Firm Outcomes: Evidence from the West Bank and Gaza over the Last Decade (2016–25)

Jingyuan Deng and Gianluca Mele

11334: Coverage or Intensity of Support ? Adaptive Social Protection to Reduce Disaster-Related Poverty

Robin Middelanis, Bramka Arga Jafino and Yasuhiro Kawasoe

11333: Beyond Wages: What Matters Most in Job Choice for Women in El Salvador

Ivette Contreras, Lelys Dinarte, Amparo Palacios-Lopez, Valentina Costa and Steffanny Romero

11332: Digital Technology, Gender, and Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Mashreq

Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Raymond Robertson and Adeel Tariq

11331: Where Firms Retire Carbon Offsets: Operational Footprints and Offset Quality

Alvaro Pedraza, Tomas Williams and Federica Zeni

11330: Global Fertility Responses to Climate-Related Hazards Depend on Population Disruption, Lethality, and Hazard Type

Leonardo Bonilla Mejía, Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe and Stefany Lopez Vera

11329: Industrial Policy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Dilan Yang and Muhammad Khudadad Chattha

11328: Disruption without Dividend ? How the Digital Divide and Task Differences Split GenAI’s Global Impact

Pawel Gmyrek, Mariana Viollaz and Hernan Winkler

11327: From Disparity to Equality: Strategic Targeting to Close Gender Gaps in Business Upgrading Programs

Stephen J. Anderson, Arti Grover, Shreya Kankanhalli and Nandini Ramani