Policy Research Working Paper Series

From The World Bank
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11366: Even the Announcement Matters ? The Effect of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Exporter Behavior

Ugur Aytun, Gunhild Berg, Seyit Cilasun and Etkin Ozen

11365: Family Matters: Social Networks and Women’s Economic Empowerment

Nono Akpedje Ayivi Guedehoussou, Abhilasha Sahay, Maria Emilia Cucagna and Mansi Sharma

11364: Weather Shocks and Unintended Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Musa Hasen Ahmed, Halefom Yigzaw Nigus, Hiwot Mekonnen Mesfin and Gebrelibanos Gebremariam

11363: In Tablets We Trust ? Validation of the Use of Tablet-Based Tools for Land Area Measurement in Household Surveys

Federica Petruccelli, Sydney Gourlay, Adriana Paolantonio, Emanuele Clemente and John Ilukor

11362: Are Robots Shifting Foreign Direct Investments ?

Francesca de Nicola, Shawn Tan and Aaron Tang

11361: Does Automatic Loan Approval Reduce Gender Bias in SME Lending ?

Irani Arraiz, Miriam Bruhn and Claudia Ruiz Ortega

11360: Fine-Scale Spatial Disaggregation of Statistical Data via Graph Neural Networks

Kamwoo Lee, Brian Blankespoor and David Newhouse

11359: Survey-to-Survey Poverty Monitoring under Economic Shocks: The Role of Proxies and Flexible Nonlinear Learners

Nobuo Yoshida, Yusaku Kawashima and Shinya Takamatsu

11358: Project-Level Learning Lowers the Conflict Cost Premium of Energy Access

Ali Ahmad

11357: Completing the AfCFTA Mosaic: Liberalization of Trade in Services

Karlygash Serikovna Dairabayeva, Carmen Estrades Pineyrua and Maryla Maliszewska

11356: Counteracting the Impact of Societal Aging on Income Inequality: A Case Study of Malaysia

Gerton Rongen, Matthew Dornan, Philip O'Keefe and Peter Lanjouw

11355: Testing for Market Power in Agricultural Land Markets: Evidence from Ukraine

Klaus W. Deininger and Daniel Ayalew Ali

11354: Foreign Tariffs as Catalysts for Reform ? The Potential Development Dividend

Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo and Jose E. Signoret

11353: Policy Pulse: Sensing the Sentiment toward Climate Policies in the Public Sphere

Nisan Gorgulu and Penelope Ann Mealy

11352: Foreign Demand Shocks and Domestic Value Added: Firm-Level Evidence from Viet Nam

Anmol Agarwal, Alessandro Barattieri and Aaditya Mattoo

11351: Raising Children Alone in Latin America and the Caribbean: Strong Mothers and Weak Social Assistance

Laura Cuesta, Jacobus Joost De Hoop and Hugo Rolando Nopo Aguilar

11350: The World Is Developing at Its Slowest Pace in 75 Years

Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Umar Serajuddin, Divyanshi Wadhwa and Nishant Yonzan

11349: Bottom-Coding for the Measurement of Global Poverty and Inequality

Nishant Yonzan, Minh Cong Nguyen, Christoph Lakner, Aart C. Kraay, Dean Mitchell Jolliffe, Haoyu Wu and Gabriel Lara Ibarra

11348: Multidimensional Poverty: Why Not Make Up the Missing Joint Distribution Data ?

Benoit Decerf, Mery Ferrando and Balint Menyhert

11347: International Trade Policy and Quantitative Models: A Practitioner’s Guide

Erhan Artuc and Johan Andrey Ortega Hernandez

11346: Urban Heat, Mortality, and Economic Costs: Evidence from Bangkok, Thailand

Jane Park and Steven Louis Rubinyi

11345: Who Smooths the Shock ? Government and Private Saving in International Risk Sharing

Giorgi Bokhua and Ergys Islamaj

11344: Do State SME Programs Work ? Evidence from Loan Subsidies and Credit Guarantees in Kazakhstan

Martin Melecký, Claudia Ruiz Ortega, Asset Bizhan and Ganbaatar Jambal

11343: Moving beyond Time Poverty: Measuring Women’s and Men’s Time-Use Agency

Thomas Daum, Talip Kilic, Gayatri Koolwal, Greg Seymour and Wilbert Drazi Vundru

11342: Shaken, but Not Deterred: Acute Stressors and the Formation of Hope and Aspirations among Tertiary-Educated Youth in Myanmar in the Aftermath of the 2025 Earthquake

Jeffrey R. Bloem, Yashodhan Ghorpade and Muhammad Saad Imtiaz

11341: Where Are Pakistan’s Out-of-School Children ? Mapping Accessibility of Schooling Using Satellite Data and Machine Learning Methods with an Application to the 2022 Floods

Umar Saif, Amer Hasan, Ayesha Tahir, Koen Martijn Geven, Mohsen Ali, Aliza Masood, Muhammad Abdul Rahman and Sheena Fazili

11340: Policy Lessons from International Commodity Agreements: Failure of Non-Oil Pacts and the Endurance of OPEC

John Baffes, Peter Nagle and Shane S. Streifel

11339: Electrifying Africa’s Economic Transformation: What Reforms Should Governments Pursue?

Andrew L. Dabalen, Stuti Khemani, Megan Elizabeth Lang and Govinda R. Timilsina

11338: Willingness-to-Pay for Emerging Technologies: A Study of Hydrogen Demand in the Ammonia Industry

Svetlana Ikonnikova and Jevgenijs Steinbuks

11337: Is Place-Based Green Industrial Policy Effective ? Evidence from the Inflation Reduction Act

Joep Keuzenkamp, Jacopo Mazza, Bob Rijkers and Katherine Stapleton

11336: Women’s Political Empowerment and Public Spending Efficiency in Developing Countries

Yacouba Coulibaly and Aissata Coulibaly

11335: Conflicts and Firm Outcomes: Evidence from the West Bank and Gaza over the Last Decade (2016–25)

Jingyuan Deng and Gianluca Mele

11334: Coverage or Intensity of Support ? Adaptive Social Protection to Reduce Disaster-Related Poverty

Robin Middelanis, Bramka Arga Jafino and Yasuhiro Kawasoe

11333: Beyond Wages: What Matters Most in Job Choice for Women in El Salvador

Ivette Contreras, Lelys Dinarte, Amparo Palacios-Lopez, Valentina Costa and Steffanny Romero

11332: Digital Technology, Gender, and Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Mashreq

Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Raymond Robertson and Adeel Tariq

11331: Where Firms Retire Carbon Offsets: Operational Footprints and Offset Quality

Alvaro Pedraza, Tomas Williams and Federica Zeni

11330: Global Fertility Responses to Climate-Related Hazards Depend on Population Disruption, Lethality, and Hazard Type

Leonardo Bonilla Mejía, Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe and Stefany Lopez Vera

11329: Industrial Policy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Dilan Yang and Muhammad Khudadad Chattha

11328: Disruption without Dividend ? How the Digital Divide and Task Differences Split GenAI’s Global Impact

Pawel Gmyrek, Mariana Viollaz and Hernan Winkler

11327: From Disparity to Equality: Strategic Targeting to Close Gender Gaps in Business Upgrading Programs

Stephen J. Anderson, Arti Grover, Shreya Kankanhalli and Nandini Ramani

11326: To Have It All ? Career and Family of College-Educated Women in an Emerging Economy

Elghafiky Bimardhika and Daniel Zefanya Halim

11325: Turning Inward and/or Outward: Which Socioemotional Skills Pay for Agribusiness Entrepreneurs in Nigeria ?

Smita Das, Clara Delavallade, Ayodele Emmanuel Fashogbon and Sreelakshmi Papineni

11324: Toward a Standard for Landslide Data: Bridging Gaps in Landslide Susceptibility Modeling and Early Warning Systems

Priscilla Niyokwiringirwa, Tjark Gall and Abhas K. Jha

11323: Emerging Successes in Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth in West Africa

Andrew L. Dabalen, Keith Fuglie and Aparajita Goyal

11322: Formalizing Savings

Martin Melecký and Dorothe Singer

11321: Urban Expansion and Protection Gaps amid Evolving Flood Exposure

Jun Rentschler, Christoph Klaiber, Mengjue Zhu and Mattia Marconcini

11320: Does Message Framing Matter for Tax Compliance ? Evidence from a WhatsApp Field Experiment

Paulo Antonacci, Muhammad Khudadad Chattha, Naranggi Pramudya Soko and Prabaning Tyas

11319: Why Do Some Countries Build Safer ? Economic Constraints, Disaster Learning, and the Two-Stage Housing Quality Ladder

Yasuhiro Kawasoe

11318: The Effects of Regulatory Information Systems on Credit Allocation: Evidence from Brazil’s Rural Credit Bureau

Silvio Arduini, Faruk Miguel Liriano, Claudio Moreira, Alvaro Pedraza, Claudia Ruiz Ortega, Paulo Sampaio and Lucas Dos Santos

11317: Wage Subsidies to Promote Female Hiring: Evidence from Pakistan

Maurizio Bussolo, Jean Nahrae Lee, Mahreen Mahmud, Nayantara Sarma and Anaise Williams

11316: The Poverty Cost of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Stephane Hallegatte, Daniel Gerszon Mahler and Benoit Decerf

11315: Demand Shocks in Equity Markets and Firm Responses

Fernando Broner, Juan Jose Cortina Lorente, Sergio Schmukler and Tomas Williams

11314: Do Investments in Digital Infrastructure Improve Employment Outcomes ? Evidence from Türkiye

Banu Demir and Arti Grover

11313: Click, Code, Earn: The Returns to Digital Skills

Antonio Soares Martins Neto, Yan Liu, Saloni Khunara and Juan Manuel Porras Lopez

11312: From Training to Earning: The 7-Year Impact of Dual Apprenticeships on Youth Employment

Bruno Crépon, Eva Lestant and Patrick Premand

11311: The Role of Credible Mitigation Measures in Building Citizen Trust for Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Angola’s Public Opinion Survey

Valentina Martinez Pabon, Nelson Tisso Miezi Eduardo, Boban Varghese Paul and Liliana D. Sousa

11310: Productivity Gap between Women- and Men-Run Private Hotels in Georgia: A Data Envelopment Analysis–Based Meta Frontier Analysis

Mohammad Amin and Nesma Ali

11309: Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data to Map Multidimensional Vulnerability in the Central African Republic

Vincent Remi Nossek, Walker Kosmidou-Bradley, Frédéric Mortier, Bastien Chevillé and Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon

11308: The Effects of Digital Literacy on Wages in Europe and Central Asia

Metin Nebiler and Kyunglin Park

11307: Small Emerging Markets: A New Asset Class

Alvaro Pedraza and Dilip Ratha

11306: Deep and Shallow Decarbonization in Supply Chains

Anne Helene Beck and Alvaro Pedraza

11305: How Do Organizations Learn ? The Diffusion of Scientific Evidence on Generative AI

Mahvish Ifrah Shaukat, Andreas Stegmann and Mattie Toma

11304: The Cycle of Hate, and What We Can Do About It

Victoria Esses, Allison Harell, Matt Lowe, Hazel Rose Markus, Aaron Mills, Manasi Rao, Vijayendra Rao, Stephen Reicher and Prerna Singh

11303: Demographic Transition and Education Expenditure in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges

Mariana Marchionni, Namrata Raman Tognatta, Emmanuel Vazquez and Monica Yanez Pagans

11302: The Effect of Survey Mode on Data Quality: Experimental Evidence from Nigeria

Yannick Markhof, Philip Randolph Wollburg, Amparo Palacios-Lopez, Pauline Castaing, Akiko Sagesaka and Ivette Contreras

11301: Striving for Economic Security: Emerging Middle Class in the East Asia and Pacific Region

Kwabena Krah, Veronica Sonia Montalva Talledo and Sailesh Tiwari

11300: The Rise and Regulation of Digital Credit: Lessons from Indonesia

Salman Alibhai, Emily Breza, Martin Kanz and Francesco Strobbe

11299: Individual Demand for Building State Effectiveness

Harry J. Dienes, Daniel Rogger, Yetsedaw Emagne and Giulio Schinaia

11298: Does LLM Assistance Improve Healthcare Delivery ? An Evaluation Using On-Site Physicians and Laboratory Tests

Jason Abaluck, Robert Pless, Nirmal Ravi, Anja Sautmann and Aaron Schwartz

11297: Not All Shocks Are Shared Equally: Commodity Exporters and International Risk Sharing

Emiliano Luttini, Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen, Valerie Mercer-Blackman and Bent Sorensen

11296: How Much Do Commodity Exporters Share Risk ?

Emiliano Luttini, Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen, Valerie Mercer-Blackman and Bent Sorensen

11295: African Trade and Investment for Global Resilience: The Mattei Lecture at the World Bank’s 2025 Africa Growth and Opportunity—Research in Action (AGORA) Conference

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

11294: The Hidden Costs of Violence: How Crime Shapes Women’s Labor Market Outcomes in Latin America

Jacobus Joost De Hoop, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe and Andrea Velásquez

11293: Who Benefits from Public Spending on Health Care ? Longitudinal Evidence from Ethiopia

Alemayehu Ambel and Getachew Yirga Belete

11292: CLARE: A Causal machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation

Talip Kilic, Marco Letta, Pierluigi Montalbano and Federica Petruccelli

11291: Evaluating Paraguay’s Vulnerability to the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation

Nicolas Borchers Arriagada, Mariana Conte Grand, Daniel Reyes, Diego Rojas and Pui Shen Yoong

11290: Unreliable Electricity in Developing Countries: The Role of Weak Institutions

Andu Berha and Stuti Khemani

11289: Neither Too Little, nor Too Late: Restructuring as a Reflex for Outcomes

Lisandro Martin, Juan Jose Leguia Alegria and Ze Han

11288: “I Want to Break Free”: How Laws and Social Norms Open Doors for Women

Alev Gurbuz Cuneo, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe, Tea Trumbic and Caroline Perrin

11287: Firm Credit Constraints and Electronic Payments: A Global Analysis

Manuel Galilea, Subika Farazi and Davide Salvatore Mare

11286: Nudging at Scale: Evidence from a Government Text Messaging Campaign during School Shutdowns in Punjab, Pakistan

Koen Martijn Geven, Ayesha Tahir, Tazeen Fasih, Javaeria Qureshi, Amer Hasan, Sheena Fazili, Rabea Malik and Kevin Alan David Macdonald

11285: South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions

Javier Baez and Varun Sridhar Kshirsagar

11284: Heat, Informality, and Misallocation: Firm Adaptation in the Short and Long Run

Jonah Matthew Rexer and Siddharth Sharma

11283: Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts

Jose Antonio Cuesta Leiva and Connor Huff

11282: Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies

Amat Adarov, Ayhan Kose and Dana Vorisek

11281: Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs

Daniela Monika Behr and Yue Xi

11280: Do Informal Businesses with More-Educated Owners Adopt Better Business Practices ? Evidence from the Central African Republic

Mohammad Amin, Asif Islam and Debasmita Padhi

11279: Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework

Galileu Kim, Tanu Kumar, Rita Ramalho and Stuart Ehrlich Russell

11278: Group Consulting Continues to Benefit Firms after a Decade: Experimental Evidence from Colombian Auto Parts Firms

Leonardo Iacovone, David McKenzie and William F. Maloney

11277: Growth and Opportunity for Africa — The World Bank Africa Growth and Opportunity: Research in Action Conference

Florizelle Liser and Laird Treiber

11276: The Contribution of Human Capital to Current and Future Growth: An Extension of the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM-HC)

Arthur Galego Mendes and Steven Michael Pennings

11275: Seeds of Change: The Effects of the Introduction of Bt Cotton in India

Yi Jie Gwee

11274: External Finance in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Tale of Differences in Vulnerabilities*

Dohan Kim and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

11273: Mapping the Gender Dimension in Taxation and Budgeting: A Cross-Country Study of Laws, Policies and Practices

Hannelore Maria L. Niesten, Luiza Ferraz Di Ricco and Alena Sakhonchik

11272: Revisiting Public Capital Needs: An Analysis of Growth-Maximizing Investment with Efficiency and Congestion Effects

Santiago Herrera Aguilera, Christophe Hurlin and Hironobu Isaka

11271: Psychological Barriers to Participation in the Labor Market: Evidence from Rural Ghana

Leandro Carvalho, Damien B. C. M. de Walque, Crick Lund, Heather Schofield, Vincent Somville and Jingyao Wei

11270: Medium-Term Impacts of Integrated Social Safety Nets: Cash Transfers, Information Meetings, and Home Visits for Child Development

Richard Akresh, Damien B. C. M. de Walque, Harounan Kazianga and Abigail Stocker

11269: Country-Level Pathways to 30x30 and Their Implications for Global Biodiversity Protection

Susmita Dasgupta, Brian Blankespoor and David Wheeler

11268: How Laws Promote Economic Opportunities: A Review

Fabiola Saavedra Caballero, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe and Caroline Sabine Marie Perrin

11267: Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions

Qianmiao Chen